PonyExpress

How Valuable is Seymour?
Statistical Study of 76 Defensive Tackles from 32 NFL teams, 2004 and 2005 seasons.

I compared 76 DTs in football, considering 3-4 DEs as Defensive Tackles. I used four statistical categories: Against the pass, sacks and batted balls; and against the run, stuffs and total tackles minus sacks. I considered a DT’s performance against the run and pass of equal importance. I ranked all the DTs in each category and then added up the rankings to determine the overall production of each player compared with his peers. Here are the top twenty performers among DTs against the pass, run and overall, and also a separate category for 3-4 nose tackles.

I. Defensive Tackles: Impact in the Passing Game, 2004-2005 Seasons.
Abbreviation Key:
PR: Position Rank
S: Sacks
BB: Batted balls
(NT): Nose Tackle in a 3-4
(3-4): 3-4 Defensive End
(R): Rookie

Statistical Notes:
(a) for NFL DTs, a batted ball has roughly the same value as a sack.
(b) the tie breaker in position ranking is #sacks.


PR, Name S(PR) BB(PR) PRaggregate
1.K. Williams, Min 16(2) 15(1) 3
2.Coleman, Atl 22(1) 12(3) 4
3.Bernard, Sea 12(3) 9(6) 9
4.Henderson, JK 9(6) 11(4) 10
5.Griffin, Wash 10(5) 8(7) 12
6.Rogers, Det 10(5) 7(8) 13
7.R. Smith,Hou(3-4)4(11) 13(2) 13
8.Buckner, Car 5(10) 10(5) 15
9.A. Smith,Pitt(3-4)10(5) 4(11) 16
10.Seymour,NE(3-4)9(6) 5(10) 16
11.Jenkins, GB 8(7) 6(9) 16
12.Stroud, JK 6(9) 8(7) 16
13.Raegor, Ind 11(4) 2(13) 17
14.Roye, Cle(3-4) 4(11) 9(6) 17
15.Starks, Tenn 8(7) 4(11) 18
16.Zgonina, Mia 7(8) 5(10) 18
Browning, KC 7(8) 5(10) 18
18.Williams(NT),SD 4(11) 8(7) 18
19.Glover, Dal 10(5) 1(14) 19
20.Kelly, Oak 9(6) 2(13) 19

II. Defensive Tackle Rankings: Impact in the Running Game, 2004-2005
Abbreviations:
PR: Position Rank
STF: Stuff for loss against the run
TT-S: Total Tackles minus Sacks

Statistical Notes:
(a) For an NFL DT, a STF in the run game has roughly the value of 10 conventional tackles.
(b) Total Tackles are ranked by decades. Thus 72 and 76 are considered equal.
(c) First Tie Breaker for Position rank is (TT – S) + 10(STF); second tiebreaker is #STF.

Pos. Rank, Player STF(PR) TT-S(PR) PR aggregate
1.Griffin, Wash 21(1) 95(5) 6
2.P. Williams, Min 19(2) 106(4) 6
3.Pickett, STL 15(3) 107(4) 7
4.Warren, NE(3-4) 14(4) 111(3) 7
5.Roye, Cle(3-4) 13(5) 122(2) 7
6.Haynesworth,Ten15(3) 83(6) 9
7.B Young, NO 13(5) 107(4) 9
8.Douglas,SF(3-4) 11(7) 123(2) 9
9.R. Smith,Hou(3-4)11(7) 116(3) 10
10.Scott, Chi 15(3) 69(8) 11
11.Rogers, Det 12(6) 99(5) 11
12.Henderson,Jack8(10) 136(1) 11
13.Harris, Chi 13(5) 71(7) 12
14.A. Smith,Pitt(3-4)12(6) 74(7) 13
15. Adams(NT),SF 11(7) 85(6) 13
16.Payne,Hou(3-4)9(9) 103(4) 13
17.Raegor, Ind 12(6) 68(8) 14
18.S. Adams, Buff 12(6) 51(9) 15
19.Dockett, Ar 11(7) 68(8) 15
20.Seymour,NE(3-4)10(8) 78(7) 15



III. Overall Defensive Tackle Rankings, 2004 and 2005. Passing Game and Running Game Combined.

Abbreviation Key
PR@Pass: position rank against the pass
PR@Run: position rank against the run

Statistical Notes.
(a)Tiebreaker for NFL DTs is production against the pass.

Pos. Rank, Player PR@Pass PR@Run PR aggregate
1.Griffin, Wash 12 6 18
2.K. Williams, Min 3 16 19
3.Henderson, Jck 10 11 21
4.R. Smith, Hou(3-4)13 10 23
5.Roye, Cle(3-4) 17 7 24
6.Rogers, Det 13 11 24
7.Coleman, ATL 4 20 24
8.Bernard, Sea 9 18 27
9.Pickett, STL 21 7 28
10.Douglas, SF(3-4)19 9 28
11.A. Smith, Pitt(3-4)16 13 29
12.Warren, NE(3-4)23 7 30
13.P. Williams, Min 24 6 30
14.Seymour, NE(3-4)16 15 31
Stroud, Jck 16 15 31
16.Raegor, Ind 17 14 31
17.Scott, Chi 20 11 31
18.Haynesworth,Ten22 9 31
19.Harris, Chi 21 12 33
20.Zgonina, Mia 18 15 33


3-4 Nose Tackles, Overall
1.Williams(NT),SD 18 16 34
2.Adams(NT),SF 24 13 37
3.Ferguson(NT),Dal24 17 41
4.Wilfork(NT), NE 23 19 42
5.Wash.(NT),Oak 24 20 44
6.Hampt.(NT), Pitt 30 20 50
7.Fisk(NT), Cle 27 24 51

Conclusion

Richard Seymour: Except for Albert Hainesworth (8), Tommy Kelly (6), and Grady Jackson (6), Seymour missed more games over the last two years due to injury (5 not counting playoffs) than any DT who appeared on the top twenty list against the pass, the run, or overall. If he had been healthy and his production had remained consistent, he would have likely finished in the top 5 overall among DTs, which is consistent with his talent level. However, durability has become an issue with Seymour, as he has missed significant time with knee problems two years in a row. Going forward one can expect, judging from his past, that durability will continue to be an issue, and that is part of the package when considering resigning him. Seymour compares favorably with John Henderson in production. If the Pats are offering to pay Seymour in the same salary area as John Henderson that seems like a fair offer. If Seymour is demanding to be paid as the highest paid defensive player in football, his demands seem unreasonable. With the emergence of the underrated Ty Warren, the improvement of Wilfork at the nose, and the versatility of Jarvis Green, even if Seymour leaves, the Pats defense should remain competitive provided they acquire compensation for Seymour and redistribute his salary throughout the defense. In conclusion, I believe if Seymour is demanding to be the highest paid defensive player in football, then those demands are excessive considering his overall production and durability over the last two years.

IcyPatriot

How important are water and the atmosphere?

Alk

How important is Seymour? On a scale of 1-10? About 175.

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maverick4

Interesting post, by the way welcome to the board.

Not sure I agree with the conclusions, since Seymour's impact can't be measured by his personal statistics. A better study would be to compare overall pass/run defensive numbers when the player is in or on the bench. Still, it is interesting that Ty Warren rates so high on your list. I'll have to pay more attention to him to see for myself.

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Box_O_Rocks

Bingo! Nicely done again Pony!

Mav4, Warren was the MVP of the D-line last season from this observer's perspective. The Oakland game was a case in point, Warren was a monster, literally owning the "great" Robert Gallery. Seymour was owned by Stone on the left side and Wilfork was Grove's favorite squeaky toy. The first half of the Kansas City game worked the same way.

I want Sey extended, but before we have another McGinest/Vinatieri panic, we need to remember that BB can win with a 'lesser' player, heck even Cowher's bums play okay defense.

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holyredeemer

Pay more attention to Ty Warren? You havent seen his excellent hard nosed play all of last season? What a shame Oh well, i like the analysis and give u major kudos for going thru all of that hard work just to give us something to talk about. I appreciate that, for it has been dull lately. I think if Seymour wants to become the highest paid defensive player in all of the nfl, and doesnt seem to budge then he needs to be traded. Im sorry everyone, I know how great seymour is, trust me I DO. But, he tends to get overhyped and he has had injury problems the last 2 yrs. that have been killing our defense. It's not a question of how important he is to this team but more of a question on whether or not it would be in our best interest as a team to lock up a guy that hasnt shown that he can stay healthy anymore, for that long.

DarrylS

Statistics do not tell much about Seymour as he is often double teamed and plays a lot of different roles on Defense. When I watch the Pats I always key on him, and am amazed at what he does..he does not often get credit for the tackle or the assist, but often misdirects plays and is a continual disruptive influence on the field. His stats got better toward the end of last year, when they let him loose. IMO he is probably the best in the league at what he does, stats will not always bear this out..but watching him and his presence on the field certainly does..

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PonyExpress

GJ,
I agree with you that, when healthy, Seymour is a top 5 Defensive Tackle in the NFL, maybe even the best. But remember Seymour is not the only DT in the NFL who gets double teamed. Shaun Rogers, Kevin Williams, John Henderson, Marcus Stroud, and Pat Williams have faced similar opposition to Seymour, and produce statistics that are comparable to Seymour. The same argument you make about Seymour's impact not being measurable could just as easily be said about all of them... yet they all produce measurable statistics that put them in the top 20 among their peers, as does Seymour. This tells me that in fact their impact is measurable, and so is Seymour's.

Mainefan

This is a very important point. Much of what Seymour does can't be measured, because it impacts on other members of the D-line. The statistics he does rack up are IN ADDITION to the fact that he makes the entire D-line better and disrupts a lot of what the opposing O-line is trying to do.

This is one of the problems with the exhaustive and actually very clever statisfiying Pony has been doing. There is no way to quantify the intangibles. It's not even easy to describe them. But the entire Patriots' defense feels different when Seymour is in there, stronger, more confident, more dominant.

It is true, on the other hand, that he has been injured often. I'm sure he gets an unusual amount of punishment, even for a DE. But I hope he stays well for the entire season. He's one of the main reasons the Patriots are very, very rarely out of the game.

holyredeemer

We are straying off the point here. No one is ? how important seymour is to this team. I think what pony was trying to point out, is whether or not he is really worth being paid as the top Def. player in league history. I dont think our team can afford to lock up a guy with that much money when he has been injured so much the last 2 yrs.