SteveBsFan

4th and 2 on their own 5 with 2 mins to go? Hard to say. Same exact situation? If fans weren't crazy, i'd definitely do it. I'd then let them walk right in, get the ball back on my 30-35, and have 2 mins to move 40-50 or so yards to secure a win.

scott99

Bad call, period. You Kool Aid drinkers can drink all you want, but this is one of the worst calls in football history, period. Also one of the worst coached games in Belichick history. But it's just that, history, on to the next. Kill those Jets !

Eugene Chung

Yeah, I mean, I still don't agree with the decision to go for it, BUT I definitely understand the line of thinking. I'm not terribly upset with the decision.

I will say that I do not understand the general media's perception that the sky is falling. For Pete Prisco to equate this call with the Tuck Rule (which doesn't even make sense) and PK to equate this to Game 7 of the '03 ALCS (yes, a do or die game) is ridiculous. This was a 4th down call in a November game. If the Pats make the 1st down, they MIGHT end up with the #1 seed, but the Colts still probably end up with it. Now, the Pats are tied for the 3 seed and 1 game out of the 2. Some of the thoughts coming out of this game are so irrational.

The one thing I take out of this game is this: the Colts can be beat in their house. It took them a questionable (very questionable) PI call, a fumble on the goal line, an INT in the endzone, AND an unusual 4th down attempt to win BY ONE POINT. I can live with that silver lining although it's difficult to digest.

That said, the Pats have a lot to work to do going into this week's game.

__________________
"I like guys like Bill Belichick, Bill Russell and Bobby Knight. They're all rebels who do things their way." - Jim Brown

Metaphors

I think he would protest the game because the officials started the drive 3 yards in their own end zone.

Simple matter of odds:

Chance of Pats making the 2 yards = 60% or so
Chance of Pats stopping the Colts from the 30 with 2 minutes = 25%
Chance of Pats making late FG after Colts TD = 10%

Overall chance of failure = around 30%

Chance of Pats stopping the Colts from driving 70 yards in 2 minutes = 50%
Chance of Pats making late FG after Colts TD = 2%

Overall chance of failure = around 50%

I'll take a 30% chance of failure over a 50% chance. Change the numbers all you want but the odds were better going for it.

SteveBsFan

Just wondering, where did you get those odds? Been looking for certain odds to score by position and couldn't find any

Metaphors

Made 'em up. Point wasn't to be absolutely accurate, just relative to the alternatives. Put your own numbers in but consider that the Pats had multiple scenarios to win under Belichick's decision but only 1 real scenario under "conventional wisdom" (fringe situations like muffed punt and big return balance out).

Given the defensive situation (injuries, fatigue, previous Colt drives, bogus PI call, etc.), I think a 50% chance of stopping the Colts on a final drive (70 yds, 2 minutes, 1 timeout) actually kind of generous. Seeing the Colts tear right down to the 2 in less than a minute supports that view.

So plug in your own odds from your perspective and see what you come up with. I would be surprised if punting the ball gave you a better chance of success.

letekro

There's a paper by romer that discusses all of this in depth with equations and data and all that good stuff. I believe he is a Univ. of Mich. mathematician.

RoughingthePasser

Its a game of inches and Indianapolis PI calls

__________________
"Practice execution equals reality"-BB
'Don't be that guy who ruins a season."' -BParcells

condon84

Really dude? You really have convinced yourself that going for it on your own 5 yard line with two minutes left and winning by six points gives you better odds of winning than punting the ball and making your opponent drive 60 or so yards?

stcjones

agree with you......dumbest call he has made in his career I would imagine......