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I'm not necessarily a stat geek, but we have debated at length how "done" we are after tough losses. When you scroll over a team name you see how the odds of making the playoffs has changed with each week of play. Click on it and you get the detailed info.
There are two ways the odds are calculated- one called 50/50 in which each game is considered a coin toss. In that scenario, the odds are 30.4% for the Patriots to make the playoffs, but a 97.7% chance if we go 4-0 from now on, and a respectable 72.9% chance if we go 3-1.
The other way of calculation, called weighted (click at the top) takes into account home/away, strength of opponent, recent game trends, etc. and is probably more accurate. We are apparently badly hurt by the easy schedules of many of the teams we are in competition with for playoff spots. The overall odds drop to 18.7%, and "only" an 81.9% chance of making the playoffs even with a 4-0 finish.
It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona.
It's also revealing to see how much one loss can hurt- our playoff odds dropped from 47% to 19% due to the Pittsburgh game alone.
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It is what it is, so just go out there and do your job!
Last edited by Palm Beach Pats Fan; 12-03-2008 at 02:35 PM..
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It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona.
Well remember, one of the major reasons the AFC East has no losing teams right now is because of the fact half of every teams schedule consists of those very two divisions.
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Well remember, one of the major reasons the AFC East has no losing teams right now is because of the fact half of every teams schedule consists of those very two divisions.
True, but it would still suck if the Broncos go 8-8 or even 7-9 and make the playoffs while the Patriots don't at 10-6 or even 11-5.
The top 6 records should make it, with tiebreaks going to division champions after the head-to-head tiebreakers.
__________________
It is what it is, so just go out there and do your job!
Last edited by Palm Beach Pats Fan; 12-03-2008 at 02:54 PM..
True, but it would still suck if the Broncos go 8-8 or even 7-9 and make the playoffs while the Patriots don't at 10-6 or even 11-5.
The top 6 records should make it, with tiebreaks going to division champions after the head-to-head tiebreakers.
How is that any fairer than the current system, given that teams don't the same schedules?
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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
How is that any fairer than the current system, given that teams don't the same schedules?
There is no perfectly fair system, obviously, but I would think under my hypothetical scenario it would be far more likely that a 11-5 Patriots team would be more playoff-worthy than a 7-9 Bronchos team. You play with the games you are given, but it should be important how many of them you win.
The concept of divison rivalries is already augmented by the home-and-home division opponent scheduling. I don't see the logic in automatically guaranteeing a playoff spot, especially now with many 4-team divisions. It just makes it more and more likely to have sub-0.500 playoff teams, making the NFL look like the NBA or NHL, where crappy teams looking to next year and lamenting their awful season sometimes make the playoffs.
That doesn't seem to be good for the NFL, but I suppose it would take a few 7-9 or even 6-10 teams making it to the playoffs and losing 49-7 to get the rules changed.
__________________
It is what it is, so just go out there and do your job!
Last edited by Palm Beach Pats Fan; 12-03-2008 at 03:05 PM..
Well remember, one of the major reasons the AFC East has no losing teams right now is because of the fact half of every teams schedule consists of those very two divisions.
If the Patriots win their last 4 (unlikely but possible) and go 11-5 they ARE GUARANTEED to get in the playoffs and probably the #6 seed...
Period,end of story - NO Chance an 11-5 team misses out as history shows
Let me see. The in-depth analysis says an 81.9% chance if the Pats go 4-0; the off-the-cuff bluster of PatriotsFanInPA says 100%. What should I believe?
Odds of making the playoffs: 18.7%
Linear Mode
