When it comes to Kayshon Boutte, the conversations continue about his future, especially when you take into consideration how jam-packed New England’s receiving room is.
It’s a depth chart that, at this point of the preseason, has seven players worthy of consideration. New England returns a group that replaced Stefon Diggs with both A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, providing an offense that finished second in the league in scoring last season with two explosive playmakers.
But Brown’s acquisition this offseason tipped the scale. It not only gave the Patriots a bona fide No. 1 receiver but also drastically altered the dynamic within the rest of that group.
Adding two high-quality players, especially given who they already had, essentially made it impossible for everyone to stay.
Count me among those who don’t want to see Boutte depart unless it involves future currency that will help this football team. Moving him for a fifth- or sixth-round pick, especially for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, doesn’t feel like a deal worth making.
However, looking closer, the Patriots also currently have math working against them. And the numbers just don’t work.
After putting together a prediction tool that takes a projected total for Drake Maye this season and spreads the numbers out among the receivers, things just don’t add up.
Patriots 2026 Passing Offense Projections:
After playing around with it, which included removing Boutte from the equation, this is how the numbers worked out. There was no formula or algorithm, just educated guesses based on past performances, trying to see where Maye would need to finish to even accommodate these totals:
2026 Projected Totals
🏈QB Drake Maye:
🎯 4,785 Yds | 🚀 39 TDs
— Wide Receivers —
▶ A.J. Brown: 855 Yds, 9 TD
▶ Romeo Doubs: 625 Yds, 7 TD
▶ DeMario Douglas: 485 Yds, 4 TD
▶ Mack Hollins: 370 Yds, 2 TD
▶ Kyle Williams: 360 Yds, 3 TD
▶ Efton Chism III: 195 Yds, 1 TD
— Tight Ends —
▶ Hunter Henry: 685 Yds, 8 TD
▶ Eli Raridon: 395 Yds, 3 TD
— Running Backs —
▶ TreVeyon Henderson: 330 Yds, 1 TD
▶ Rhamondre Stevenson: 245 Yds, 1 TD
▶ Reggie Gilliam: 135 Yds, 0 TD
▶ Lan Larison: 105 Yds, 0 TD
Created with YardShare at PatsFans.com
This would see Maye increase his 2025 total passing yards from 4,394 to 4,785 in 2026, and his touchdown total from 31 to 39.
That yardage total would put him ahead of last year’s NFL-leading passer Matthew Stafford, who finished the regular season with 4,707 yards passing with 46 touchdowns. Second in the NFL was Jared Goff, who finished off his campaign with 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns. Dak Prescott came in 3rd with 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns, while Maye was 4th with his total.
So, as it currently stands, Maye would need to have a better season than his peers, and that’s just to give the guys he has now numbers that align with their previous production.
Several Players Expected to Have Bigger Roles
The charts below show last year’s totals vs this year’s projected totals. The caveat here is that Kyle Williams seems to be expected to have a bigger role, as does DeMario Douglas. So both players were given slightly higher totals than the previous season. Hollins would likely be one of the key guys affected, which is why his numbers are a little lower.
Both Brown’s and Doubs’ totals were reduced primarily because of how their numbers stacked up relative to everyone else.
As it is, Efton Chism will likely see more time at various points throughout the season because injuries happen, and the odds are good that, given his growth, he’ll be part of their future. Also likely factoring in will be Reggie Gilliam and Lan Larison (who seems poised to earn a role as the #3 running back).
But looking below, the math doesn’t leave much room for Boutte:
Passing Totals (Reg Season – Yds | TD)
| Name | Last Season | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 4,394 | 31 | 4,785 | 39 |
Receiving Totals (Reg Season)
| Name | 2025 (Yds | TD) | 2026 Projection (Yds | TD) |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 1,003 | 7 | 855 | 9 |
| Romeo Doubs | 724 | 6 | 625 | 7 |
| DeMario Douglas | 447 | 3 | 485 | 4 |
| Mack Hollins | 550 | 2 | 370 | 2 |
| Kyle Williams | 209 | 3 | 360 | 3 |
| Efton Chism | 75 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 768 | 7 | 685 | 8 |
| Eli Raridon | – | 395 | 3 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 221 | 1 | 330 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 345 | 2 | 245 | 1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | – | 135 |
| Lan Larison | – | 105 |
Odd Man Out
Boutte finished last season with 551 yards receiving, third most on the team. Barring Maye throwing for over 5,000 yards, there’s no room for that production. At best, you could remove 100 yards from Chism and maybe rookie tight end Eli Raridon, but that’s 200 yards – and not much room from there. Perhaps you subtract 70 from Larison, but 270 still wouldn’t be enough. The only other player might be Williams, but it feels like he’ll see more targets this year.
Yet, even if you remove 100 yards from his total, would Boutte be happy with 370 yards for the season? And keep in mind, Brown and Doubs’ totals are both already below where they each finished last season.
Boutte also scored six touchdowns. Seeing Maye go over 40 touchdowns would be amazing, and 45 would be unbelievable.
But the snaps and the yards have to come from somewhere, and again, when you take into account everyone they have and the past production, the math just doesn’t work.
Don’t take my word for it. Play with the tool and see if you can have it make sense where Boutte would finish the season with numbers close to where he finished last season without giving Maye record-setting and MVP-worthy numbers.
Still, for additional context, it’s certainly possible Maye could be “that guy” in terms of putting up massive totals and taking his spot among the NFL’s elite. After all, Joe Burrow finished with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022. Justin Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs, and Tom Brady passed for 5,316 yards and 43 TDs in 2021. Jameis Winston threw for 5,109 yards and 33 TDs in 2019. It can be done, especially when you take into account that Maye has put himself alongside or ahead of a couple of those names.
As a result, from a yardage standpoint, Maye breaking the 5,000-yard mark isn’t impossible. But no matter how the numbers shake out, it’s still tough because his final totals have to account for everyone.
For now, asking Maye to put up totals where everyone is productive and happy feels like a big ask given the numbers he’d need to finish with. It’s another reason it’s hard to believe the Patriots can somehow make it all work if all seven guys stick around as they pare their roster down in the coming weeks.
The totals simply make it feel unrealistic, and it feels like Boutte may have known that when, according to Karen Guregian of MassLive.com, the receiver asked the team to consider trading him back in April.
He likely saw the writing on the wall. And he apparently already did the math and realized that if he stays, putting up the numbers he’s looking for would require an otherworldly performance by his quarterback in the coming months.
That’s why the math makes it extremely difficult to keep everyone. As much as all of us would love to see Maye sling it over the next five months (and hopefully into February), it just feels unrealistic.
If it happens, that would definitely be incredible. But for now, it’s also why Boutte’s future will remain in question heading into 2026.
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Ian Logue is a Seacoast native and owner and senior writer for PatsFans.com, an independent media site covering the New England Patriots and has been running this site in one form or another since 1997.
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