MORSE: 2026 Patriots Schedule, Win Projection and UDFA Bonuses
Patriots 2026 Season Outlook: Schedule Toughness, Win Projections, and UDFA Guarantees
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Having won the division, the Patriots will have an upper-level schedule of non-division opponents, as well as playing the NFC North.
Based upon last season’s win totals, the Patriots will face a projected 6th toughest schedule. However, Warren Sharp of Warren Sharp Football Analysis states the Patriots have the 12th toughest schedule, which is right on the mid-line of tough vs easy schedule. His analysis is based upon the Las Vegas Odds on number of wins projected for each team. Neither projection takes into consideration the way the schedules lays out. With the schedule release, we can now make a projection. Factors such as Prime-Time games, days of rest, whether the schedule is front or back loaded with tough opponents, will make the difference.
Week One @ Seattle, Wednesday, Sept 9th 8:15 (Opening Night) NBC LOSS
This is actually a break for the Patriots. Yes, they will be playing the team that embarrassed them in the Super Bowl, and they will be facing a top Defense with the Pats newly formed Offensive Line. They won’t get the time to gel as a cohesive unit. I think the Patriots should play their starting unit a lot in the Pre-season so they can get some familiarity with each other. They will have time to work up a game plan, like Las Vegas did last season to the Patriots. It also takes away the short week prep for a long-distance flight to the West Coast. The Patriots get 4 days extra rest before their next game.
Week Two Steelers, Sunday Sept 20th, 1:00 CBS WIN
Can you call the 2nd game of the season a must win? The Patriots are the better team, and the crowd will be excited for the Opening Home game of the season. Weather should be good too! Don’t sell your tickets to those obnoxious towel-waving fans!
Week Three @ Jacksonville Sunday, Sept 27th , 1:00 CBS WIN
The Patriots are the better team, and their Defense proved they can win on the road.
Week Four @Buffalo Sunday, October 4th , 1:00 CBS LOSS
Tough to play them so early in the season. SEA and BUF in the 1st 4 weeks is a real challenge for the Patriots. That is 4 playoff teams in the first 4 weeks. Brutal! A 2-2 record at this point is not that bad.
Week Five Las Vegas Sunday, Oct. 11th 1:00 CBS WIN
The Raiders won’t have a month to get ready for Maye and the Patriots. They also faced a Patriots Defense that didn’t have Christian Gonzalez playing.
Week Six New York Jets Sunday, Oct. 18th 1:00 CBS WIN
New York is pathetic. I actually feel sorry for anyone who is a Jets fan.
Week Seven @ Chicago Thursday, Oct 22nd, 8:15 Prime Video LOSS
This will be a tough game for the Patriots on a short week. On the back side, they will get 3 days of extra rest. This should be a classic matchup between QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Week Eight @ Miami Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 CBS WIN
If the Patriots can handle the heat in Florida, they should come away with a victory.
Week Nine Green Bay Sunday, Nov 8th, 4:25 FOX WIN
I think this game is a toss-up, but again, the home field is the difference.
Week Ten @ Detroit Sunday, Nov 15th, 9:30AM Munich, Germany FOX WIN
This is actually a break for the Patriots playing the Lions in Germany in Week 10. Neutral field and Germany is a strong Base for New England (one of the countries assigned by the league for the Patriots) should make this a home-field advantage. They do get their bye week in week 11.
Week Eleven BYE
Week Twelve @Chargers Sunday Nov 29th, 8:15 (SNF) NBC LOSS
Another West Coast trip. They do have the advantage of the bye week before, but a six-hour flight out and worse, a six-hour flight back will wipe out a rest day against Buffalo. I bet this will be a prime destination for New England fans to travel to the West Coast. I went to San Diego several times, and it was a great trip.
Week Thirteen Buffalo Sunday Dec 6, 4:25 CBS WIN
This is a must-win game for the Patriots if they want to win the Division, as we head down the stretch for a playoff spot.
Week Fourteen Minnesota Thursday, December 10th, 8:15 Prime Video WIN
Brian Flores’ Defense gave the Patriots fits in their Joint Practices last Pre-Season. However, the QB situation with Kyler Murray taking over for J.J. McCarthy is a question that will be answered during the season. Jonathan Greenard is no longer playing for the Vikes. I really liked the Vikes draft led by DT Caleb Banks.
Week Fifteen @ Kansas City Monday December 21st 8:15 ESPN LOSS
A huge game and marquee matchup. This game will go a long way to determining the playoffs.
Week Sixteen @ NY Jets Sunday, December 27th, 1:00 CBS WIN
The Jets’ season should be over by the time this game is played. This may be a must-win game for the Patriots if, as expected, they are in contention for a playoff spot.
Week Seventeen Denver TBD WIN
Week 17 and 18 games are unscheduled for date and time. The NFL plays games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. They choose the most competitive games to broadcast nationally. This should be a big test for the Patriots. Both teams should be fighting for a playoff spot and probably the first overall seed. I give the Patriots the edge because they are playing at home and not at altitude. Denver is mediocre when at sea level.
Week Eighteen Miami TBD WIN
Miami should be out of it and just marking time. They hate the cold weather and already have their Tee Times set when they get back to Southern Florida.
This is a tough schedule that Nick Cattles called brutal. Here are some good and bad points of the schedule.
Negatives
Positives
That’s 12 Wins and 5 Losses which should be good enough to win the Division
Pre-Season Schedule
Colts Thursday, Aug. 13: (7:30 p.m. ET, WBZ-TV)
Eagles Saturday, Aug. 22 vs. (7 p.m. ET, WBZ-TV)
The schedule is front -loaded with four playoff teams and just one home game. That could be a problem for the Patriots. The Offensive Line cohesion is my number one concern. They need time playing together as a unit. Integrating Alijah Vera-Tucker in-between second year players Will Campbell and Jared Wilson and building cohesion. We don’t have any idea how Wilson will handle the transition to Center. Wilson played only 1 year of Center at Georgia, and most of his time was played at Guard. His poor PFF grade (49.9) at Left Guard was 71st of 81 Guards in the league. However, PFF has Wilson as a breakout player this season and cites his 79.8 Grade from week 11 through the Super Bowl as the reason why. At Georgia, his 79.9 blocking grade was good and he didn’t allow a sack or QB Hit in 2024 at Center. He only gave up 4 Pressures.
Another plus is the fact that the Patriots are not playing two rookies next to each other which was a colossal mistake. The Seahawks took advantage of that. Neither Campbell nor Wilson had a veteran Guard to lean on.
I expect the Defense to resume their dominance they showed in the playoff run to the Super Bowl. The dominance, especially against the Houston Texans countered the difficulty that Drake Maye showed playing against the three top defenses he faced in the playoffs. With the addition of Kevin Byard I expect an uptick in turnovers.
Having two Home games the last two games of the season. One is Denver, which will be a tough game. The other is the Dolphins. The week before the Broncos the Pats have NYJ which will be a short week after a Monday Night Game in KC on the previous Monday Night.
Road Warriors
Can the Patriots come close to duplicating their record of 9 wins on the road? Of their first 11 games, 7 are on the road.
Prime Time Games
I expected the Patriots to have 4 or 5 Prime Time games. The Patriots are a popular team. I never expected 5 Prime Time games, three 4:25 games with two of those being east coast, and an International Game. Fans either love them or hate them, but they will watch them.
Five primetime games (Mon, Wed., Thurs. x2, Sun) + a game in Germany. – That means two short weeks but also essentially three mini byes, including two longer stretches from Wed. to Sun and Thurs. to Mon. @ KC on Mon. to @ NYJ on Sunday with Christmas in between is not ideal, but at least it’s a familiar opponent on the back end.
Team Travel
Now that we know the Patriots schedule and that they are playing a week 10 game in Munich, we can calculate how many miles the team will travel. They will travel 27,000 miles with two trips to the west coast, which is 5th most in the league.
Guaranteed base salary is only collected if player is cut and doesn’t play. The $247,500 figure represents the 2026 full-season rate for the practice squad. What the Patriots are saying to Montgomery and Canada is that they are guaranteed at least a spot on the Practice Squad. Whether it is with the Patriots or another team. Dixon’s guarantee is nearly for the entire season on the Practice Squad so that isa similar deal of guaranteeing a spot on the Practice Squad for the season. These figures are reported from the NFLPA and were compiled by Ben Volin.
RB Myles Montgomery – $272,500 ($247, 500 base, $25k Signing Bonus)
CB Channing Canada – $267,500 ($247,500 base, $20k Signing Bonus)
WR Kyle Dixon – $252,500 ($235,000 base, $17.5k Signing Bonus)
TE Tanner Arkin – $162,500 ($145k base, $17.5k Signing Bonus)
OL Jake Rizy – $85,000 ($75k base, $10k Signing Bonus)
WR Cameron Dorner – $40,000 ($30k base, $10k Signing Bonus)
WR Nick DeGennaro – $35,000 ( $25k base, $10k Signing Bonus)
OL Jon’Darius Morgan – $10k Signing Bonus
CB Kenneth Harris – $7.5k Signing Bonus
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