Patriots – Broncos Key Matchups, Conference Championship Game
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And then there were four. That’s right, the Patriots and Broncos are part of the Final Four of the NFL as they meet this weekend for the chance to go to Super Bowl LX. The Rams and Seahawks will meet afterward to determine the NFC champion.
In a wide-open AFC, Denver and New England were the #1 and #2 seeds for most of the second half of the year. So, regardless of what the naysayers will keep screaming from the rooftops, the 16-3 Patriots and the 15-3 Broncos deserve to be here.
The Patriots gutted out a physical, big win over the Houston Texans 28-16. The Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in OT, but it was a costly one. QB Bo Nix broke his ankle in OT and will be replaced by former Patriot QB Jarrett Stidham.
The Patriots are 0-4 in playoff games played in Denver. They are tied with San Francisco with 39 playoff victories; a win on Sunday would put the Patriots in sole possession of first place with 40.
This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson and Evan Washburn will report from the sidelines.
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello. If you are in the car, you can tune in on SiriusXM: 225 (NE), 226 (Denver).
Coincidentally, Mike Vrabel was named the Pro Football Writers of America NFL Coach of the Year (he got my vote… yes, I have one). Quarterback Drake Maye was selected to the PFWA’s All-AFC team, while running back TreVeyon Henderson and kicker Andy Borregales were both selected to the PFWA’s All-Rookie team.
Matthew Stafford of the Rams was named the PFWA’s Most Valuable Player.
So, without any further ado, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
The Patriots’ running game has definitely been excellent down the stretch and through the first two playoff wins with the 1-2 punch of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson has been terrific, shaking off an eye injury against Houston to rush for 70 yards on 16 carries.
Denver’s run defense had issues with Buffalo last week; James Cook and Josh Allen had big games, but they do against everyone. Denver’s defense was #2 against the run in the regular season.
Denver has the edge here, but I could see Drake Maye’s scrambles hurting the defense, as well as bringing in an extra OL and pounding the ball. Denver’s defense is lighter than Houston’s but fast, and they flow to the ball extremely well. Regardless, the Patriots have to keep running the ball to use play action.
Drake Maye has been sacked 10 times and fumbled 6 times, losing 3 in 2 playoff games thus far. That cannot continue this week if the Patriots want to move on to Santa Clara and the Super Bowl. Denver’s defense sacks the QB more than any other team (68 on the season). Nik Bonitto leads the team with 14.0.
Bonitto will be facing Will Campbell, who has struggled in two playoff games thus far. This is a matchup that will have all eyes on it. Denver produced only 14 turnovers all season, but last week, the difference in the game was the five they forced against the Bills.
However, the Patriots’ passing game and Drake Maye have proved incredibly resilient. Despite the pressure and sacks, Maye leads all playoff QBs with four TD passes, 8.0 yards per attempt, and 13.5 yards per reception.
Patrick Surtain is an All-Pro corner and will match up with Stefon Diggs. But one matchup to watch is Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams against Riley Moss, who led the league in DPIs and gave up nine deep pass plays in 28 attempts.
Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper could also figure big in the Patriots’ game plan. Buffalo’s tight ends combined for nine catches for 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Will Mack Hollins be activated and play? That would be a huge boost for the Patriots’ offense.
Next up is the Broncos’ offense.
The Patriots, with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Robert Spillane, and Christian Elliss, held the Chargers to just 87 yards and then held Houston to just 48 yards on 22 carries. Khyiris Tonga, their big run stuffer, returned and factored big against the run and added a sack.
The Broncos have been rolling with R.J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, who have been good. J.K. Dobbins is on IR, but returned to practice on Wednesday. We don’t yet know whether he’ll be activated, or, if so, how effective he’ll be. The Lisfranc injury he suffered is no joke. But if he does, that would be a big boost for the Denver offense, as would starting center Luke Wattenberg.
Denvers offensive line is outstanding and ranks in the Top 10 in both pass blocking (8th) and run blocking (4th) win rates. But the Patriots’ front seven has been outstanding this postseason, and they get the edge here.
The Broncos have very good targets in the passing game, and if Nix had been able to play, they would definitely get the edge here. But with Nix on the shelf, and Stidham having only a week to prepare, it is a lot to ask for a guy who hasn’t thrown a pass in a real game in over two years.
Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and no one schemes up a passing game like him. He loves to roll out his QBs and allow them easy throws to move the chains, something the Patriots must be aware of. Stidham isn’t the runner Nix is, but he is not immobile at all.
Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin (hamstring-limited) are excellent options. Sutton will draw Christian Gonzalez, and Franklin and Carlton Davis should match up if each is able to go. Marvin Mims and Marcus Jones should be a great matchup to watch in the game. The Patriots’ coverage has been outstanding thus far in the postseason.
Look for the Patriots to mix in zone coverage this week, as that’s an area where a QB without a ton of experience, such as Stidham, can struggle against. He’s also struggled against pressure in the past, and I’d look for the Patriots to be dialling it up again this week. Look for Payton to go uptempo to wear down the Patriots’ blitzing and pass rushers this week in the thin Denver air.
The Patriots and Broncos’ special teams are really matched up well here. Denver gets the nod in the kicking department, while the Patriots are slightly better in the return game. Denver is at home, and that is a big advantage, kicking at altitude.
The Patriots and Broncos are the #1 and #2 seeds with identical 14-3 regular-season records for a reason. Both teams are resilient. Denver is 12-2 in one-score games this season. Neither team panics when things get dicey.
From a Patriots’ perspective, ball security this week is an absolute must. They have to treat Stidham like they would Nix unless he shows otherwise. But they can’t afford a slow start and allow Stidham to get comfortable with a lead and in the pocket. The Patriots have to get started quickly and force him to play from behind. That’s why stopping the run and making Denver one-dimensional is imperative for the defense.
By the same token, the Patriots offense can’t continually be in third-and-long situations, or the Broncos defense will eat them alive with their pass rush. If they have to bring in an extra OL, do so to run the ball, set up play-action, and protect Drake Maye.
The Patriots will have to play a full 60-minute game, because that’s what it will take, but they’ll win a close one (they were 8-0 on the road this year) and move on to Santa Clara.
Patriots 24-20
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Good article Steve B. This game is no gimme. If the Pats aren’t sharp and lose the battle of big plays, they can certainly lose the game. The weather being good should skinny down the turnovers, but in turn make any turnover potentially more impactful. Especially given this game again is more likely than not to be low scoring. Good D’s. It’s imperative the Pats stop the Denver run and put the game into Stidham’s hands where Denver is one-dimensional. That to me is the NE path to win the game. The offense may struggle again. I’d expect them to… Read more »