Patriots – Dolphins Key Matchups, The #1 Seed Is Still A Possibility
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The Patriots have locked up the AFC East and still have an outside shot at the #1 overall seed and a Wild Card Weekend bye if they beat Miami and the Chargers beat Denver.
However, that seems remote now as the Chargers, with nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding, have decided to rest QB Justin Herbert and several banged-up starters.
FOX will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen locally in Boston on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Joe Davis will handle play-by-play duties with Greg Olsen as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work from the sidelines.
The Patriots want to at least clinch the #2 seed with a victory over Miami, which is playing much better after a disastrous 1-6 start. They’ve benched Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers, who has played well thus far.
Miami still has De’Von Archane, who is having a monster year and who is a threat every time he gets his hands on the ball.
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.
So, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
The Patriots’ running game has definitely shown signs of life in the past five weeks, averaging 141.2 yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson has rounded back into form and is playing very well. TreVeyon Henderson has turned it on and has become a legitimate threat for a big play every time he touches the ball.
However, since Miami’s bye week, they’ve allowed only 85.2 yards per game on the ground in the past five weeks. That has allowed them to hang tough in their games, except for the Cincinnati game.
Look for the Patriots to keep things balanced and try to keep Miami guessing. I expect Stevenson, Henderson, and D’Ernest Johnson will see plenty of reps here as they try to wear down Miami in the Northeast cold.
The Patriots’ passing game ranks #3 in yards gained but 22nd in passes thrown. What does that mean? It means Drake Maye has been darn efficient throwing the ball. Maye leads the league or is in the top five of most passing categories in the NFL in 2025, including completion percentage (71.7), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (112.9).
He’s been using the entire field and spreading the ball around. Expect more of that on Sunday, with Stefon Diggs needing just 30 yards for a 1,000-yard season, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Williams, with the good news that Kayshon Boutte was a full participant, meaning he should play on Sunday, as well as Demario Douglas, who has been limited with a hamstring.
Miami’s pass rush will have to get home and affect the timing for Maye or the Patriots should find plenty of success throwing the ball. S Minkah Fitzpatrick and LB Jordyn Brooks haven’t practiced this week due to injuries.
Next up is the Dolphins’ offense.
The Patriots’ run defense has been steadily sliding down the league rankings. Currently, they’re ranked #8, allowing 104.1 yards per game. And the front seven is really banged up. LB Harold Landry – Knee, LB Robert Spillane – Ankle, and DL Khyiris Tonga – Foot, were all missing from practice again. Milton Williams has not yet been activated from IR.
And Miami’s running game is the team’s strength. De’Von Archane is #1 in the league, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He leads the league in explosive runs. Miami runs the ball at a 50 percent rate and runs a ton of play-action off the running game.
However, Achane is dealing with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week. It will be interesting to see if he can suit up on Sunday. He’s the guy who can keep this game interesting. Not only is he Miami’s leading rusher with 1,350 yards, but is also their leading receiver with 67 catches, and is second with 488 yards receiving. He accounts for 36 percent of Miami’s total offense in 2025.
The Dolphins have Jaylen Waddle, who has 910 yards receiving this season. With 90 yards on Sunday, he’d break the 1,000-yard barrier this season. With Achane banged up, Quinn Ewers may also have to do without TE Darren Waller, who hasn’t practiced this week with a groin injury.
Ewers has played well in his starts thus far, but he has Malik Washington and Theo Wease, who scored on a 63-yard touchdown last week against the Bucs. The Patriots’ secondary should match up well against this group, especially if Achane and Waller are missing.
The pass rush, however, is missing Landry, and this could play a role if they can’t get home with their pressure. Perhaps getting Williams back this week would help that.
The Patriots’ special teams is in need of a big game soon. The return game, especially with PR Marcus Jones, has been held in check. And with former Patriot punter Jake Bailey returning to Foxboro, that may be difficult.
The Dolphins have a slight advantage in kick return average, and Bailey’s net punting average is two yards better than Bryce Barringer’s
The Patriots should take care of business on Sunday. Miami is just 2-5 on the road, and they are a notoriously poor cold-weather team. The game plan for New England is simple: start fast, get out to a good lead, and get the Dolphins thinking about tee times and Caribbean vacations by halftime.
They don’t want to let the Dolphins hang around and then play loose with house money, throw the kitchen sink at them with nothing to lose.
Mike Vrabel knows what is still at stake (#1 seed). The Patriots won’t take the Dolphins lightly, and Drake Maye should have another big day.
Patriots 31-20
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Evan Lazar wrote a good game assessment. Noted Quinn Ewers has done well, in games so far on play action but then opponent defenses adjusted. He’s done poor vs man coverage, which negates some of the play-action MIA runs. Expect NE with two games of tape on Ewers to play more man and put pressure on the backfield. Ewers is a pocket passer and not much of a runner. Waddle is also banged up. Achane hasn’t practiced. The Phins have been stopping the run as Steve noted but they got gashed a bit vs the pass and have little pass-rush… Read more »