MORSE: Patriots Week 12 Preview: Cincinnati Bengals
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This is a trap game! The Patriots opened as 8.5-point favorites, and then Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for the game. In addition, starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Brit needs Lisfranc surgery and will also be out. Joe Burrow is not expected to be ready for Sunday’s game, and Trey Hendrickson is probably out as well.
The Bengals’ Offense is not that bad, considering the injuries they have had. The Offense ranks 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game. They are averaging 307.1 yards per game good for 23rd in the league. The Passing game is 14th at 225.7 yards a game. The run game is 30th at 81.4 yards a game. In the Red Zone they are decent at 60.7 % which is 14th. On 3rd Down they hit at 41% which is 10th in the league.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| QB | Joe Flacco | Jake Browning | Sean Clifford | Joe Burrow IR |
| RB | Chase Brown | Samaje Perine D | Tahj Brooks | – |
| WR | Mitchell Tinsley | Ja’Marr Chase SUSP | ||
| WR | Tee Higgins | Charlie Jones | – | – |
| WR | Andrei Iosivas | Jermaine Burton | ||
| TE | Mike Gesicki | Noah Fant | Drew Sample | Tanner Hudson |
| LT | Orlando Brown | Cody Ford | – | – |
| LG | Dylan Fairchild | Lucas Patrick | Dalton Risner | Cordell Volson IR |
| C | Ted Karras | Matt Lee IR | ||
| RG | Jalen Rivers Q | Dalton Risner | Lucas Patrick | |
| RT | Amarius Mims | – |
Joe Burrow has been out since the Week 3 game in which he got hurt. Cincy tried using Jake Browning, which was a disaster. They quickly traded for Joe Flacco, and he has made the Offense pretty good. The Bengals’ big problem is that their Defense is the worst in the league, and every game is a shootout. Burrow has started to work out as part of his rehab to come off IR. He has 21 days to be activated to the 53-man roster. Burrow has taken 1st team reps in both Wednesday and Thursday’s practices, and he could be activated for the Pats game Sunday. The season is gone for Cinci. Why chance pushing Burrow to come back? There is nothing to gain.
Cincy has to turn around on a short week and play Baltimore on Thanksgiving Day. If I were them, I would wait until that game to bring Burrow back. Burrow would have to be activated to the 53-man roster in order to play Sunday. Joe Flacco is 40 years old, and this is his 18th season in the NFL. He is still performing at a high level with his guile as well as his skills. He has beaten the Patriots before, and he is a very dangerous player. With the help of his skill players, he could keep the Bengals in the game with a chance to beat the Patriots. His rank is as high as #14 amongst QBs. That is pretty high considering that he started the season with the Browns. After three straight games of elite offensive production with Flacco under center, the Cincinnati offense sputtered and allowed two defensive scores by Pittsburgh in a 34-12 loss on the road in Pittsburgh. Flacco at 6’6”, 245 pounds is no threat to run, but will stand in the pocket and take the hits. He was drafted in 2008 in the 1st round (18) by Baltimore. Flacco has been managing an AC joint injury and has played through it. He will probably not practice until Friday. Jake Browning is the worst QB in the NFL. He is ranked 38th of 38 eligible QBs. If he has to play, the Bengals are in serious trouble.
Ja’Marr Chase has had his appeal, and the League arbitrator upheld his suspension. He will miss the Patriots game and lose over $500K in salary. This elevates Tee Higgins to WR1, and he will get Christian Gonzalez for the majority of his routes. The Patriots may choose to double Higgins with Carlton Davis and a safety, leaving Gonzalez on the other side to shut down Andre Iosivas. Higgins is having a fine season with 35 catches on 64 targets for 514 yards, 15.5 YPC, and 7 TDs. The 6’4”, 220-pound WR out of Clemson was drafted by the Bengals in the 2020 Draft 2nd round (33). However, he is the beneficiary of having Ja’Marr Chase getting most of the attention and then having the lesser of the opponent’s secondary covering him.
Iosivas is the definition of an Athlete. The 6’3”, 210-pound receiver was born in Tokyo, Japan, played High School football in Honolulu, Hawaii, and played college football at Princeton. He was also part of the Track and Field team at Princeton and was named All-American as a Heptathlete. In 2022, entering his Senior year at Princeton, Iosivas was listed at #15 on Bruce Feldman’s annual “Freaks List” of college players. He was selected in the 2023 Draft by Cincinnati in the 6th round (206). On the season, he has 19 receptions on 35 targets, for 256 yards, 13.5 YPC, and 1TD. Stepping up into the Chase role will be Mitchell Tinsley. The 6’1”, 205-pound WR played at Western Kentucky and one season at Penn State. Tinsley went undrafted in 2023 and signed on with Washington and made the Commanders team as a UDFA, playing in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, he signed with Cincinnati. He has just 3 catches on 6 targets for 49 yards, 16.3 YPC, and a TD. Jermaine Burton was a Full Participant and practiced both Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to play Sunday.
Chase Brown leads the Bengals in rushing. The 5’10”, 210-pound RB from Illinois was selected in the 5th round of the 2023 Draft by Cincinnati in the 5th round (163). For the season, he has 519 yards, 4.3 YPC, and 2 TDs. He is only averaging 51.9 Yards per game. Brown is the 3rd leading receiver on the team with 39 receptions on 53 targets for 229 yards, 5.9 YPC, and 1 TD. Samaje Perine is the primary backup with 198 yards, 6.2 YPC, and a TD. He also has 7 catches on 9 targets for 30 yards, 4.3 YPC, and no TDs. The 5’ 11”, 240-pound back played at Oklahoma. He was selected in the 2017 Draft, 4th round (114) by Washington. Perine has been downgraded to Doubtful for Sunday. Tahj Brooks was taken in this year’s draft by Cincinnati in the 6th round (193). The shifty back played at Texas Tech and had back-to-back 1500-yard seasons to make the 1st Team and second team All-Big 12 teams. The 5’9”, 210-pound back has only 7 carries for 23 yards and a 3.3 YPC and no TDs.
It appears that Mike Gesicki may be ready to play on Sunday. He has practiced the last two days and may be activated for Sunday. In his absence, Noah Fant has led the group. The very reliable receiver stands 6’4”, 249 pounds, and played at Iowa. He was selected by Denver in the 1st round (20) of the 2019 draft. On the season, he has 30 receptions on 34 targets for 256 yards, 13.5 YPC, and 1 TD. Tanner Hudson is the 3rd TE. At 6’5”, 241 pounds, Hudson is a big target. The Southern Arkansas product enters his 8th season in the NFL and went undrafted in the 2018 draft. He signed with Tampa Bay and played with the 49ers and the Giants before signing with the Bengals this year. On the season, he has 10 catches on 12 targets for 83 yards, 8.3 YPC, and 1 TD. Drew Sample is actually listed as the backup on the depth chart, and they also have cam Grandy as a 4th TE.
The Offensive line is led by Left Tackle Orlando Brown. The mammoth 6’8” 345-pound lineman out of Oklahoma was drafted by Baltimore in the 3rd round (82) of the 2018 draft. He was a 2x All-Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year and a 4x Pro Bowl selection. His PFF grade is a disappointing 58.7, good for 55th. On the season, he has given up 7 sacks, 5 QB Hits, 19 Hurries, and 31 Pressures. Rookie Dylan Fairchild starts at LG. The 6’5”, 315-pound Guard played at Georgia and was drafted by the Bengals in the 3rd round (81). His PFF grade is 52.1, good for 61st. On the year he has given up 1 Sack, 3 QB Hits, 16 Hurries, and 20 Pressures in 8 starts and missed two games. Former Patriot Ted Karras is their starting Center. The Patriots should never have let Ted Karras go over a measly $1M. This, along with letting Joe Thuney go, is one of the biggest blunders of Bill Belichick’s reign as GM.
The 6’4”, 310-pound Center/Guard out of Illinois, Karras was a 2016 6th round (221) pick that was developed into a starting NFL player by Dante Scanecchia and the Patriots. His PFF grade is 60.3, good for 27th. On the season, he has given up 1 Sack, 2 QB Hits, 10 Hurries, and 13 Pressures. Right Guard has been a problem for Cincy. Rookie Jalen Rivers is listed as the starter and is Questionable for Sunday. He was upgraded to Limited in practice on Thursday. The 6’5”, 325-pound lineman out of Miami was drafted by Cincy as a Tackle. He has an abysmal 30.9 PFF Rating, which is 79th, second-worst of all guards. On the season, he has given up 2 Sacks, 4 QB Hits, 21 Hurries, and 27 Pressures. He has been the starter since the 3rd game of the season. If he can’t go, Dalton Risner is his backup. Risner has started 4 games this season. The 6’5” 312-pound Guard played at Kansas State and was drafted in 2019, 2nd round (41) by Denver. His PFF grade is 57.6, good for 49th. On the season, he has given up 1 Sack, 1 QB Hits, 6 Hurries, and 8 Pressures in 291 snaps. Right Tackle is Amarius Mims. The 6’7”, 340-pound Tackle played at Georgia and was selected by Cincy in the 1st round (18) of the 2024 draft. His PFF grade is 55.5, good for 65th. On the season, he has given up 4 Sacks, 3 QB Hits, 17 Hurries, and 24 Pressures.
The Bengal Defense is by far the worst defense in the league. They are giving up 418 yards per game (32), 33.4 points per game (32), 257.3 Passing Yards per game (31), 160.9 Rushing Yards per game (32), 68.1% in the Red Zone (30), and are 49.96% on 3rd down (31). Drake Maye must be a nightmare for the Bengals Defensive Coordinator Al Golden. What Maye has done to the top three defenses in the league must be keeping him up at night. Add to this the Bengals may be without their top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and one of their starting Cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt. They were already without starting LDE Shemar Stewart.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | |
| LDE | Joseph Ossai | Cedric Johnson | Shemar Stewart IR |
| LDT | T.J. Slaton Jr. | Jordan Jefferson | McKinnley Jackson |
| RDT | B. J. Hill | Kris Jenkins | |
| RDE | Trey Hendrickson D | Myles Murphy | Cam Sample Q |
| WLB | Demetrius Knight | Shaka Heyward IR | – |
| MLB | Barrett Carter | Joe Giles-Harris | |
| SLB | Oren Burks | Brian Asamoah II | |
| LCB | DJ Turner | Marco Wilson | DJ Ivey |
| SS | Jordan Battle | PJ Jules | Daijahn Anthony IR |
| FS | Geno Stone | Tycen Anderson | |
| RCB | Cam Taylor-Britt D | Josh Newton | – |
| NB | Dax Hill | Josh Newton | – |
Joseph Ossai will start at LDE with Stewart out. The 6’4” 263-pound Edge player played at Texas and was drafted in the 2021 draft 3rd round (69) by the Bengals. His PFF grade is 60.3 good for 77th. On the season he has 25 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 5 QB Hits, and 20 Hurries. LDT is TJ Slaton. The 6’5” 330-pound DT played at Florida and was drafted in the 2021 Draft 5th round (174) by Green Bay. His PFF grade is 41.3 good for 117th. On the year he has 33 tackles, 0 Sacks, 4 QB Hits and 6 Hurries. RDT is BJ Hill. the 6’3” 311-pound DT played at NC State and was selected in the 2018 Draft 3rd round (69) by the NY Giants. His PFF grade is 64 good for 45th. On the season he has 38 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 2 QB Hits and 12 Pressures. Myles Murphy may be thrust into the starting lineup with Hendrickson out. The 6’5” 275-pound Edge player played at Clemson and was a 2023 selection in the 1st round (29) by Cincy. His PFF grade is 56.9 good for 87th. On the year he has 28 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 1 QB Hit and 15 Hurries.
How bad are Bengals linebackers? They have two of the worst linebackers in the league. The other linebacker doesn’t have enough snaps to qualify for a ranking. Weakside Linebacker is Demetrius Knight. The rookie 6’2”, 245-pound LB played at South Carolina and was the Bengals’ 2nd round (49) selection in this year’s draft. His PFF grade is 36.7 for a ranking of 80 of 81 linebackers. For the season, he has 70 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 1 Pressure. Barrett Carter is the MLB. He stands 6’1”, 230-pound linebacker who played at Clemson. He was a 4th round (119) selection by Cincinnati. His PFF grade is 33.2, the worst in the league (81). For the season, he has 62 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, and 3 Pressures. The Strongside linebacker is the replacement for Logan Wilson, who was benched and then traded to Dallas. Burks I a 6’3”, 233-pound linebacker who played at Vanderbilt. He was a 3rd round (88) by Green Bay in the 2018 Draft. His PFF rating is 53.9 but he doesn’t have enough snaps to be ranked. For the season he has 38 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, and 3 Pressures.
The secondary was hurt by Cam Taylor-Britt’s injury. He is listed as Doubtful and I think he will be out. DJ Turner is their best DB. The 5’11”, 180-pound CB played at Michigan and was selected by Cincinnati in the 2nd round (61) of the 2023 draft. His PFF rating is 73, good for 14th amongst all Conerbacks. He has 27 Tackles, and no sacks, QB Hits or Hurries. Jordan Battle is the Strong Safety. The 6’1” 206-pound Safety played at Alabama and was Cincy’s 3rd round (96) 2023 draft selection. His PFF grade is 63.3 good for 49th. On the season he leads the team with 76 Tackles, 0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, and 1 Hurry. Geno Stone is the Free Safety position. The 5’11”, 210-pound Safety played at Iowa and was selected in the 2020 draft 7th round (219) by Baltimore. His PFF grade is 53.5 good for 78th amongst all Safeties. On the season he has 67 Tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB Hits, and 1 Hurry. Josh Newton will probably be the fill in for Taylor-Britt. The 6’, 190-pound CB played at TCU and was a 2024 5th round selection by the Bengals. His PFF rating is 54,2 good for 85th. He has 14 Tackles, and no Sacks, QB Hits, or Hurries. Dax Hill is the Nickel Back. The 6’ 191-pound CB played at Michigan and was a 2022 1st round (31) selection by Cincinatti. His PFF grade is 57.2 good for 70th. On the season he has 64 Tackles, and no Sacks, QB Hits, or Hurries.
Safety Daijahn Anthony is still listed as IR, but he was a full participant in practice on Thursday and is likely to be added back to the active roster on Sunday.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | |
| PK | Evan McPherson | – | – |
| P | Ryan Rehkow | – | – |
| H | Ryan Rehkow | – | – |
| PR | Charlie Jones | Jermaine Burton Q | – |
| KR | Charlie Jones | Jermaine Burton Q | Samaje Perine Q |
| LS | William Wagner |
The Bengals’ Special Teams are very good. Charlie Jones is the 19th ranked Kickoff Returner with a 25.9 yards per return and a TD. As a Punt Returner he has 10.4 yards per return. He doesn’t have enough returns to be ranked but he would have been 12th in the league. Punter Ryan Rehkow leads the league with a 53.1 Punting average. His Net Yards per Punt is 42.9 which is 10th. Kicker Evan McPherson has been very consistent inside 50 yards. He has missed only 3 FGs of 18 attempts and all 3 were beyond 50 yards. He is perfect 23 for 23 on Extra Points.
I fear this game could turn into a shootout. There is no question the Patriots will score points. My biggest question is whether the Patriots have not had to come back from a two-score deficit in the second half of a game. They have given up the opening drive TD in nearly every game. However, the Defense has made adjustments and shut down opponents in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters, allowing the Offense to get ahead of their opponents. What happens if they are behind late. Maye has yet to show that he can come back with late game heroics. I believe this is going to be a close game. The odds have dropped a point and a half since Monday, so the early money was bet on the Bengals, driving the number down. I am thinking it going to be 37 – 31 Patriots.
The Patriots don’t flip-flop their Cornerbacks, preferring to keep them on one side. The Jets put TE Mason Taylor out wide Left against Gonzalez and then put 3 Receivers on the Right side. This forced a mismatch of at least the WR3 against one of our safeties. The WR2 against our Nickel CB Marcus Jones and then our #2 CB Carlton Davis against their WR1.
The Stats page has been expanded going back to 2021. Ian Logue did a lot of work to get this feature up and running. Check it out here: https://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/stats/games/
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Pats have been really consistent with effort, and not having up’s/down’s where they drop a game they shouldn’t. So far. A tribute to the coaching staff in terms of keeping players focused. I can’t see losing this game, but who knows, it could be uncomfortably close like Mark said. It’s the NFL and there’s not often as much difference week to week between good and bad teams as you’d think. Interesting to see if the Pats can get their run game going given Cincy’s D stats beg for it. Run game has been a work in progress item for NE,… Read more »