Patriots-Bengals Week 12, Keys To The Game, Key Matchups
Follow us
Follow Us
🕑 Read Time: 5 minutes
Posted Under: Patriots Commentary
HOME > Patriots Blog > Patriots Commentary
The Patriots head back out on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday at 1:00 pm.
This week’s game marks the second straight year the Patriots will travel to Cincinnati. Last year, the Patriots opened the 2024 season with a 16-10 win at Paycor Stadium. That shows how quickly things can change in the NFL.
The Bengals were an early Super Bowl favorite, and the Patriots were starting fresh under Jerod Mayo, who had been promoted to head coach after a 4-13 season under Bill Belichick. Now the Patriots enter this week’s game at 9-2 under Mike Vrabel, tied for the best record in the league, and the Bengals are reeling at 3-7.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Kevin Harlan will handle play-by-play duties with Trent Green as the color analyst. Melanie Collins will provide updates from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
The Patriots are looking to extend their winning streak to nine games with a win over the Bengals. They have had three nine-game winning streaks in team history. A 12-game winning streak in 2003, a 16-game winning streak in 2007, and a 10-game winning streak in 2015.
The Patriots are also 5-0 on the road this season and are looking to improve to 6-0 and their AFC conference record to 6-2.
The Bengals will be without their top WR Ja’Marr Chase, who was suspended for this game, after spitting on Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey last week. Chase is one of the top WRs in the league. Trey Hendrickson is not expected to play this week either due to a hip injury.
QB Joe Burrow, who has been out since Week 2 with a toe injury, was a full participant at practice on Wednesday, which set tongues wagging that he’d be back this week. The Bengals, however, expect him back for their Thanksgiving Day game. We’ll see how that plays out.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game got a big boost from TreVeyon Henderson during Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence. Last week against the Jets, he scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) and got kudos from head coach Mike Vrabel for how hard he ran at the end of the game, while killing the clock.
Stevenson was listed as a limited participant at practice on Wednesday, but is expected to be available on Sunday, barring a setback. Terrell Jennings was listed as a full participant. So, that is good news for the Patriots’ offense.
The Bengals’ run defense is awful, allowing 160.9 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. They are tied for the worst, allowing 5.2 yards per rush. Missing Hendrickson doesn’t help matters.
Look for the Patriots to run the ball well, which will aid in setting up play action passing. Stevenson should have a good day, as the Bengals have had tackling issues all season.
The Patriots’ passing game is facing the 31st-ranked pass defense in the league. The Bengals defense ranks last in DVOA, points allowed, yards allowed, and EPA – 32nd in the NFL in all major categories. They have struggled with presnap motion, resulting in multiple blown coverages.
The team may get Kayshon Boutte back this week. He was listed as a full participant at practice. Having him back would open up the deep passing game, but with Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, with Stevenson and Henderson out of the backfield gives Drake Maye plenty of ways to stress this defense.
Look for the backs to have a big day out of the backfield.
Next up is the Cincinnati offense.
The Patriots’ run defense is currently the NFL’s #1 unit. They have allowed only 84.7 yards per game. However, they have shown cracks in the armor in their past two games against the Bucs and Jets. They’ll look to get back on track against Cincinnati’s Chase Brown.
Cincinnati has the 30th rushing attack in the league, averaging 81.4 yards per game. But that can be traced to their defensive struggles, which led to so many points and forced them to play catch-up. Brown is a very good back who can make people miss in the open field.
The Patriots will be without Milton Williams for the next four games due to a high ankle sprain. It will be interesting to see how the defense holds up without him in the lineup. But they have the players to play the scheme that has been so successful. Look for Khyiris Tonga to play a bigger role on early downs.
The Bengals’ passing game, even without Joe Burrow, has been excellent under Joe Flacco. Under Flacco, the Bengals have averaged nearly 280 yards passing per game (3rd in the NFL) and 28.6 points per game (4th in the league).
Obviously, missing Ja’Marr Chase is a blow to the offense, but with Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, TE Noah Fant, and the elusive Brown out of the backfield, the cupboard is hardly bare. Cincinnati hopes to get into a shootout, which gives them their best chance at an upset.
With Chase out, the Patriots may opt to double-team Higgins with Carlton Davis and a safety, while putting Christian Gonzalez on Iosivas. Look for the Patriots to blitz a bit more on Sunday. Flacco doesn’t move in the pocket as well as he used to, and has struggled against pressure.
The Patriots’ special teams units had a big game last week against the Jets, limiting their dangerous kick returners. Brandon Schooler had a terrific game.
Cincinnati has good returners in Charlie Jones, Samaje Perine, and Tahj Brooks, who have done a good job, averaging 25.8 yards per kickoff return. Jones has a 98-yard TD return and nine PRs for 94 yards.
Ryan Rehkow leads the league with a 53.1 punting average.
The Patriots are #4 in punt return average, and rookie Andy Borregales is 15-17 on FG attempts.
Next up, who wins and why…
___________
The Patriots are seeking their ninth consecutive win and aiming to secure their first 10-win season since finishing 10-7 in 2021.
The Bengals are a mess right now defensively, and this is the week that Drake Maye has a 300-yard game this season. I think he has a big game to lead the Patriots to a 10-2 record before returning home to face the Giants.
Cincinnati will put some points on the board and get some yards passing, but it won’t be enough.
Patriots 34-23
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
Listen to our Patriots No Huddle podcasts on Spotify as Derek Havens, Mike D’Abate, and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news and breakdown game analysis
From our archive - this week all-time:
April 2 - April 17 (Through 26yrs)
Join 2,000+ fans getting exclusive stats, analysis, and insights delivered straight to their inbox every week. Never miss a play.
When the Patriots have the ball vs when the opponent has the ball. I loved reading that analysis in the Globe (or was it the Patriot Ledger) when I was a kid. Good stuff!