The Patriots began the season with a very disappointing loss at home to the Raiders, 20-13. All the high hopes of starting the season on a strong note went out the window with a poor second half.
The Dolphins looked listless in a 33-8 stomping by the Colts in Indianapolis. Mike McDaniel came into the season on a hot seat. Things got even warmer for him now, as some analysts feel the team quit on him in certain circles.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Andrew Catalon will handle play-by-play duties with Jason McCourty and Charles Davis as the color analysts. AJ Ross will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
Some Quick Notes:
The Patriots have never beaten Tua Tagovailoa, who has looked like a Hall of Famer against the Patriots. He’s 5-0 all-time against New England at home. The Patriots have dropped their last five in Miami and eight of the last nine overall. So, Miami’s struggles last week can be taken with a proverbial hefty dose of salt.
Last year in Miami went about like one would expect. Drake Maye turned over the ball twice, was sacked four times, and Miami rolled to a 34-15 win. So, there shouldn’t be any over-the-top optimism here.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Dolphins Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots’ running game, which is so critical to Josh McDaniels’ offense, in Week 1 was extremely disappointing, gaining just 60 yards and generating zero push at the line of scrimmage.
Josh McDaniels admitted he abandoned the run far too early, and it allowed the Raiders’ pass rushers to pin their ears back. The Colts ran the ball effectively, 156 yards on 40 carries, allowing for play-action passes out of the gun.
Look for Josh McDaniels to spice it up this week with a little bit more motion and give more snaps to TreVeyon Henderson to jump-start some of the running game and save Rhamondre Stevenson as a closer in the second half.
This can open up play-action passing and some RPOs for plays down the field to keep Miami’s defense, which is banged up a little bit on the field. Balance is the key here. Miami has three excellent pass rushers. Bradley Chubb, Chop Robinson, and Jaelan Phillips.
Patriots WRs vs. Dolphins Secondary — Edge Miami
The Patriots’ passing game last week was not good; despite the 287 yards by Drake Maye, there were a lot of plays left on the field. The running game is so important here, because it keeps the edge rushers honest. If the Patriots have another 45-50 attempts in the passing game this week, plan on having a long face on Monday.
The Dolphins like to spin a lot of pressure, and mix things up with creepers and simulated pressures, not having to blitz much with the edge guys and Kenneth Grant. Don’t be too fooled by Miami’s one sack a week ago. It was Indy’s balance that helped there.
McDaniels has to call a much better game on Sunday, and find much more favorable matchups for Demario Douglas (2 catches -2 yards TD) last week. That was not expected and can’t continue this week.
We know about Miami’s speed, but how about McDaniels having Henderson, Kyle Williams, Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte on the field to stress Miami’s injured secondary.
The pass protection? It will be stressed this week. But it all comes down to Maye. He can’t have more of the missing open guys by sailing the ball. And he can’t come in so amped up that he simply gives away early possessions by not playing within himself and the game plan.
Next up, the Dolphins offense:
Dolphins RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots did a good job of stopping the run last week, holding uber-talented rookie Ashton Jeanty to just 2.0 yards per carry. Miami likes to use a fullback and then use tons of motion to get those guys in space.
I don’t see the Patriots running a lot of base defense here; otherwise, it puts guys like Hill and Waddle on linebackers and safeties, where Tua has eviscerated New England in the past. They’ll have to stop the run with a three corner nickel look. This is a big week for the linebackers who have to be much better this week.
Regardless of motion or whatever, the New England DL has to get penetration and blow-up plays in the backfield. And if they can’t do that against a backup guard and backup right tackle, then the defense has more issues than we thought.
Dolphins WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge Miami
The Miami passing game was horrible last week (133 yards), one of Tua’s worst games as a pro. Until I see that happen against the Patriots, I don’t expect it to happen.
Where Miami has killed the Patriots is Tua hitting his first read quickly with quick slants in the middle. The Patriots must disrupt his timing by taking this away, forcing him to rely on second and third reads, as the pass rush targets his backup offensive line players on the right side.
The secondary gave up far too many chunk plays last week; something to think about this week. Tyreek Hill hasn’t had a 30-yard reception since Week 1 of last year. That is a bad omen this week, IMO.
I would feel better, but not great, about this matchup if the team had a healthy Christian Gonzalez on Hill, but it is what it is…
Special Teams — Edge Miami
The Patriots’ special teams units didn’t have a great Week 1. They got solid returns in the kicking game, but Bryce Barringer had several poor punts; the one with five minutes remaining in the game was an absolute killer. Andy Borregales missed a chip-shot 40-yard field goal.
The Dolphins’ Dee Eskridge had a 38-yard kickoff return last week, old Patriot punter Jake Bailey had one punt, a 42-yarder that he put inside the 20.
Next up, who wins and why…
___________
Prediction:
Miami was -3 in turnovers last week, they looked dead in the water, rumors are flying around that the team quit on their coach. Good friend Mike Destafano, who will be at the game at 1 p.m. said fans have raised $4k for a flyby with a banner calling for McDaniel and Grier to be fired during the game.
The Dolphins are going to tank and and begin a long season of frustration of playing bad football, where McDaniel and Grier are gone by December, right?
Wrong. Oh, they’ll be gone, but this week, there will be unicorns and show ponies. They’ll circle the wagons and look like a playoff team for one week, before they begin their stink slide into oblivion. Miami 24-17.
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
