MORSE’s Game Prediction: Raiders over the Patriots
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It’s time for some real football. What will the outcome be in the Opening game of the season? How will the Patriots perform?
The Patriots will start 6 rookies in this game. That is way too many and a reflection of just how poor this team’s talent was after years of poor drafting. Only 12 players drafted in the last 4 drafts remain on the 53-man roster. Last year’s draft had 2 players with only 1 starter (Maye), and 2 others on IR. The depth of this team is terrible. The Patriots didn’t have a single player claimed off waivers when they made their final cutdown to a 53-man roster. Only a handful have been signed to practice squads. Interestingly enough, Marcus Epps, who was signed by Philadelphia to their Practice Squad, was elevated to the roster for the opening night game Thursday (and promptly received a penalty on the Opening kickoff). The turnover on the roster is extreme, with 27 new players (>50%).
Nobody knows how the Patriots or the Raiders will play coming off a disappointing losing season last year.
Usually, the opening game is a bright and sunny day, the best weather of the year! However, it appears like we may have some rain before and possibly during the game in Foxboro. Will this affect the teams during the game?
With Josh McDaniels calling the plays, I expect the Patriots to try to establish the run. The Patriots’ inexperienced rookies (Campbell and Wilson) starting on the left side will be much better at run blocking than pass blocking. If I know this, Raiders DC Patrick Graham knows this, too.
I don’t like that the Patriots are starting two rookies next to each other. It has only been done once in 2016 by the Baltimore Ravens. Center Garrett Bradbury is a subpar pass blocker. Rookie Will Campbell has given up a sack per practice so far in Training Camp. Although fellow rookie Jared Wilson was a backup Guard at Georgia, he is playing OG in the NFL even though he started at Center for just one season in the SEC, He was not known as a strong pass blocker. Raiders pass rushers, Malcolm Koonce, Tyree Wilson and Maxx Crosby are very good and if the Patriots are forced into 3rd and long, they will be very susceptible to giving up pressure, sacks and possibly lead to turnovers.
Will Campbell showed up on the Injury List on Friday and he was wearing a sleeve on his right leg. He was listed as Questionable with an Ankle injury.
Christian Gonzalez hasn’t practiced since the 1st practice of Training Camp with a Hamstring injury. He is listed as Out. Hamstring injuries are a tricky diagnosis and treatment. It is day to day.
The Patriots’ Defensive Line and Linebackers are of a small size. Prized Free Agent signee, Milton Williams, is not very good against the run. Keion White has lost his starting position because he is also an inferior run stopper. ILB Robert Spillane will make a lot of tackles, but most of those will be 5 yards off the Line of Scrimmage. The Raiders, with Chip Kelly calling the plays, want to show off their shiny new toy, Ashton Jeanty, and establish the run. If Geno Smith gets the time to throw, he will tear up the Patriots’ secondary, just like he did last year with Seattle. With the new Defensive philosophy, the Patriots’ defense will push upfield to get pressure on the QB. This type of Defense is highly susceptible to draw plays and screen passes. The Patriots were awful against the screen passes in Training Camp. If they do get pressure, Geno Smith was the best passer versus pressure in the league last year.
The loss of Christian Gonzalez doesn’t help the team either. I do have faith in backup Alex Austin. Rookie Craig Woodson and Veteran Jalynn Hawkins are the new Safeties. We don’t know how they will interact and play in their debut.
Patriot DV Terrell Williams had this to say about Bowers. “Brock Bowers – he’s a receiver in a tight end’s body. He can catch the ball, he can block, he can make contested catches. He can do everything. That’s why he was an All-Pro.”
I would rather have the Raiders kicker and punter. Rookies Andy Borregales (K) and Julian Ashby (LS) have been a bit shaky, and I am not sure how they will react to their 1st actual games snaps.
The Patriots were 2.5-point favorites as of this writing. I am not confident the Patriots can perform well enough to win. Based upon the above factors, I think they will lose the game. My prediction is 23-20 Raiders.
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