Slow Starts: Stark Contrast as Patriots Ponder Which Top QB To Draft
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With the first round of the NFL Draft finally looming, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s name has cooled a bit over the last week, albeit he continues to come up in conversation among those pondering where he fits among the top names in the draft.
What that means here in New England is obviously the key question. McCarthy was reportedly in town for a visit last week, with the club also having dinner with him last Sunday night as they seemingly did with fellow top prospects Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye.
Daniels seems to be the pick for the Commanders, so the only question now is whether or not it’s going to be North Carolina’s Drake Maye or McCarthy who gets the call at #3 overall. There’s been plenty of trade discussion, but according to a report by Mark Daniels yesterday, there’s yet to be a deal worthy enough to even consider.
With Maye, the feeling is the sky’s the limit when it comes to his ceiling, but that the rookie will likely have a lot of work to put in early on to fix a lot of his issues. From his footwork to his mechanics, there are a lot of kinks in Maye’s game that, while he survived it in college, could be more of an issue at the next level.
The other big knock against Maye has also been his inconsistency and his accuracy, which at times have been sporadic. He’s also been known for getting off to slow starts, which in the NFL is obviously an issue since getting down early just makes things that much tougher against opposing defenses.
Looking at the numbers, that’s an area where McCarthy definitely has the edge. Last season, Michigan ranked 11th in first quarter scoring, while North Carolina ranked 48th.
That led to Michigan often playing from ahead, which Phil Perry said on a recent Tom Curran’s Patriots Talk Podcast leads to questions of how McCarthy would deal with playing from behind.
“It’s just that whole idea of being a part of the best team in the country. Zero halftime deficits last year, average halftime lead of 14 points, there weren’t all that many situations where stuff was going to hell around him and he had to be ‘the guy,’” said Perry. “And I think when you’re drafting somebody – we’re talking about the third overall pick – you take somebody at three overall, I would prefer to have seen him be a superhero kind of quarterback, and he didn’t have to do that enough because his team was so damn good. And he’s a part of that, so I give him credit for that. On the one hand, it’s one of these things with him … it’s hard to say you’re confident in something when you just haven’t seen it.”
The Patriots know that all too well, with the club tied with the Vikings last season for the fourth-lowest first-quarter overall point total in the NFL. That often led to them having to deal with overcoming a deficit, which as we know, was an issue last season.
With Maye, Albert Breer mentioned something that was a little alarming in that same podcast. The North Carolina QB seemingly has had issues early in games, which included his most recent Pro Day where he was erratic at the beginning of the workout before settling in. Breer said that ‘nervous energy’ is something that has teams concerned about him heading into next week.
“This is just something I’ve heard from teams, there’s a little bit of nervous energy to him, and I think you saw it at the beginning of his Pro Day,” said Breer. “If you really want to tie one thing together with the other, it’s if he has this nervous energy, and it showed up in meetings with teams, you could actually kind of detect that.”
“Now, he calmed down, but if you see the way he started that Pro Day, that’s where the bad throws were and then he settled in. So there’s like a nervous energy to him, and like, is that an issue? So I think that’s something teams are working through right now considering him.”
While McCarthy didn’t face much adversity in terms of having to come from behind, it’s funny that he’s penalized for making sure the offense got off to a good start and jumped out to an early lead. In fact, he’s sort of been penalized for being a solid, yet not flashy player, which is going to make him interesting to follow regardless of where he ultimately ends up.
Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. also had success in this category. Washington was tied for 8th in first quarter scoring last season, which makes him another interesting name to consider should a blockbuster deal ultimately come along and the Patriots slide down the board.
For a team that experienced plenty of early-game deficits in 2023, how Eliot Wolf views this would be interesting to know as the Patriots continue mulling their options ahead of tomorrow night.
If McCarthy can put up points, not turn it over, and let New England’s defense do the rest, we’ve certainly seen them have success. Especially when you think back to a certain fellow Michigan player who won a couple of early Super Bowls that way. The same could be true for Penix, especially if the club grabs some additional currency to put around him.
For now, we’ll finally see how it all unfolds when Thursday’s first round kicks off tomorrow night at 8:00 pm ET.
(Editor’s Note: Portions of the above appeared in a recent Daily News and Notes column.)
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