Week 14 Preview: New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals present a game the Patriots could win. Their Defense is one of the worst in the league giving up 26.8 points per game (31), allowing 356.2 yards per game, and Expected Points Added (20). The EPA is an advanced metric that measures how a team does on each individual play. Arizona is better on offense, scoring 22 points per game, and accumulating 356.2 yards a game, and their Offensive EPA is ranked 20^th. The scoring difference is -57 (27) and a Turnover difference of +1 (13).

How will Bill Belichick and the defense contain Kyler Murray? If allowed to, Murray can run around and buy more time or scramble and shred the defense. What will the defense do to slow down DeAndre Hopkins? They have enough depth at WR that the Patriots will not be able to just double-team Hopkins. When on Offense, how will the Patriots’ o-line handle the blitz-happy Cardinals?

Offense

	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
QB	Kyler Murray	Colt McCoy	Trace McSorley Q	–
RB	James Conner	Keaontay Ingram	Corey Clement	Darrel Williams IR
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	A.J. Green	Antoine Wesley IR
WR	Marquise Brown	Greg Dortch Q
WR	Rondale Moore Q	Robbie Anderson		–
TE	Trey McBride	Stephen Anderson	Zach Ertz IR
LT	Josh Jones	D.J. Humphries IR	Joshua Miles IR	–
LG	Max Garcia	Rashaad Coward	Cody Ford	Justin Pugh IR
C	Billy Price	Sean Harlow	Rodney Hudson IR	–
RG	Lecitus Smith	Wyatt Davis	Sean Harlow	Will Hernandez IR
RT	Kelvin Beachum	Josh Jones

Quarterback

You need to start with the QB, Kyler Murray. He presents huge problems for the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots have not been able to stop the mobile/running QB. Murray has rushed for 420 yards this year an average of 6.9 a carry and three TDs.

Games Att Comp % YPR Yards/G TD INT Sacks

Murray 10 258 389 66.3 6.1 235.9 14 7 25

McCoy 2 50 71 70.4 6.4 228 1 1 5

Both McCoy and Murray throw the ball at a high rate of completions. This will put a lot of pressure on the Patriots’ secondary.

Offensive Line

The Achilles heal of the Cardinals has been the Offensive line. They just haven’t been healthy. Starting Left Tackle DJ Humphries has been lost for the year. Josh Jones has stepped in for him with 33 yo, 11-year veteran Kelvin Beachum. Backups at both tackle positions are thin. The interior O line is playing all backups. Starters Justin Pugh (LG) Rodney Hudson (C) Will Hernandez (RT) are all on IR. Replacing them are Max Garcia, Billy Price, and Lecitus Smith. You may see Rashaad Coward at LG for Garcia. If the Cards can’t establish a run game, this will make them one-dimensional.

Running Back

In a surprise move, the Cardinals released #2 running back Eno Benjamin in November. This elevated rookie Keaontay Ingram, a big back from USC to the number 2 role. Former Steelers RB James Conner is clearly the #1. He is capable of carrying the team on his back, provided he gets some decent play from the O-line. If the Cards can run the ball it’s going to be a long night Monday for the Pats. So far the running game in Arizona has disappointed. Conner is averaging under 4 yards a carry. He only has 121 carries and 4 TDs. However he has caught 27 passes for 171 yards and another TD.

Wide Receiver

The Cards have great wide receivers in Deandre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, AJ Green, and Robbie Anderson. Any of these players would be the #1 receiver on the Pats. The top three have these stats.

Hopkins 49 574 3

Brown 49 531 3

Moore 41 414 1

I think we will see a lot of zone defense by the Patriots’ secondary. This might be a game plan similar to what we saw with Buffalo.

Tight End

Murray lost his binky in Zach Ertz to injury. Rookie, Trey McBride is a former high school basketball player that converted to TE at Colorado State. It will be interesting to see if he can step up and fill the position. Former Patriot Stephen Anderson is the other TE.

Defense

	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	J.J. Watt	–	–	–
NT	Leki Fotu	Trysten Hill	Rashard Lawrence IR
RDE	Zach Allen	Jonathan Ledbetter		–
WLB	Myjai Sanders	Dennis Gardeck	Victor Dimukeje
LILB	Zaven Collins	Ben Niemann	Kamu Grugier- Hill	Nick Vigil IR
RILB	Isaiah Simmons	Tanner Vallejo	Ezekiel Turner	–
SLB	Markus Golden	Cameron Thomas	Jesse Luketa
LCB	Byron Murphy Jr. Q	Trayvon Mullen		–
SS	Jalen Thompson	Isaiah Simmons
FS	Budda Baker	Chris Banjo	Charles Washington Q
RCB	Marco Wilson	Antonio Hamilton Q	Christian Matthew

Defensive Line

It starts with JJ Watt the 12-year DE. He may be old (33) but he is still a dominant player. The Patriots’ O-line will have problems containing him. Watt has 6.5 sacks on the year. The Cards will move Watt all around the line to take advantage of mismatches. Zach Allen is another formidable pass rusher. The former Boston College DE has chipped in with 4.5 sacks. Leki Fotu is your typical huge Nose Tackle. He stands 6’ 5”, and 335 lbs. If he can control the middle and allow the linebackers to stay clean and make tackles that will shut down the Patriots’ run game. Allen and Watt are a little light for DTs.

Outside Linebackers

On the edge, you have Markus Golden and Victor Dimukeje. They are more like 3-4 outside linebackers. Backups include Myjai Sanders, Cameron Thomas, Dennis Gardeck, and rookie Jesse Luketa. Golden is a very disruptive edge rusher and is 2^nd to Watt with 38 QB pressures.

Inside Linebackers

Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons are the starters. Collins is 2^nd on the team with 74 tackles and Simmons is 4^th with 60. The D line funnels the run game into the middle for the Inside Linebackers to make the tackle. I liked Collins when he came out in the draft in 2021, as he was selected one pick after Mac Jones. He has that prototypical size for an inside linebacker at 6’ 5”, 260 Lbs. Former Patriot Kamu Grugier–Hill, is a leader on their special teams.

Cornerback

Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson are the starters. Murphy as of this writing was listed as Questionable. Antonio Hamilton would replace Murphy if he can’t go. The secondary overall is ranked 20^th in the league.

Safety

Budda Baker is an outstanding safety. The 6^th year player is a 2-time 1^st team All-Pro, 2^nd team All-Pro, and 4x Pro Bowl player. He leads the team with 90 tackles. Jalen Thompson is no slouch either. He has 66 tackles for third on the team. Overall, the defense does not produce a lot of turnovers as they have 7 INT and 7 fumble recoveries on the season. For the season they are a plus 1 in the turnover department.

Specialist

	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
PK	Matt Prater	–	–	–
P	Andy Lee	–	–	–
H	Andy Lee	–	–	–
PR	Greg Dortch Q	Rondale Moore Q	–	–
LS	Aaron Brewer

Matt Prater has been inconsistent. He missed some time with a hip injury. Andy Lee is the 19th-ranked punter in the league. Both Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore were listed as Questionable in the Thursday Injury Report.

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About Mark Morse

Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.

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