Patriots - Bengals Key Matchups, Who Has the Razor's Edge?

Bengals RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor’s Edge New England
The Bengals running game has surprisingly been mired near the bottom of the league this year. That is surprising with both Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard in the backfield behind what’s always been a solid offense line. But they’re averaging only 83.6 yards per game in 2015 and only 3.4 yards per carry as a team. That is nearly 30 yards per game less than a year ago. They’ve been patient with the running game and have been trying to make it go.

The Patriots have done a good job all season of stopping the run. They were outstanding a week ago limiting the then #1 rushing attack in the league of Cleveland to just 27 yards on 22 carries. Alan Branch and Malcom Brown were outstanding at the point of attack, stopping the blockers in their tracks allowing no push.

That allowed the linebackers, Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower to fly up and make plays, at or behind the line of scrimmage. Rookie Elandon Roberts, with the Pats way ahead got to spell Hightower and played a very physical downhill style, which suits him best at stopping the run.

I don’t see the Bengals being successful at running early. They’re best suited to do what the Pats will try and they’ll pass on early downs to open up the running lanes. This doesn’t seem like a Hill type of game; I would expect to see more of Bernard this week.

Bengals WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge New England
Andy Dalton has thrown the ball really well this year, passing for 1503 yards thru the first five games. His deep passing especially has been spot on, especially to WR A.J. Green who is well on his way to his sixth straight 1000-yard season. What has hurt Cincinnati is the lack of red zone production. A year ago the Bengals cruised along at a 66 percent TD rate in the RZ, this year they’re scuffling along at just 40 percent.

While they certainly miss TE Tyler Eifert who scored 11 red zone TDs a year ago, the loss in free agency of Marvin Jones and Muhammad Sanu has hurt too. They’ve added former Patriot Brandon LaFell who scored two late TDs last week in Dallas. Dalton’s protection hasn’t been good; he’s been sacked 17 times this year.

The Patriots pass defense has been inconsistent this year. They’ll certainly give Green the star treatment with a cornerback with over the top safety help this week. What they’ll need to do is stress Dalton with the pass rush this week. Chris Long will be going against second-year RT Cedric Ogbuehi on Sunday and it’s a matchup he should win.

The keys to watch obviously begin with Green who has had 350 yards in the two Bengals wins and just 150 yards combined in their three losses. If the Patriots can slow down his production, then Dalton will be forced to look to LaFell and talented slot WR Tyler Boyd as well as Bernard out of the backfield. They’ll have to produce for the Bengals to push the Patriots this week.

Special Teams- Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots and Bengals special teams have had their inconsistent moments this year. Cincy kicker Mike Nugent has hit all 12 FGs from less than 50 yards but missed both attempts from 50+. Stephen Gostkowski has missed three FGs this season after missing just three all of last year.

Cincinnati punter Kevin Huber has done a good job at pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line and has a 44.7-yard average. Ryan Allen has been excellent this season with his hang time and the ability to pin opponents inside the 20.

The Patriots coverage units have been solid, especially the kickoff coverage and that’s why they get the slight edge here. That and they’re at home. Look for Julian Edelman or Amendola to make some noise in the return game this week.

Next up, who wins and why…

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About Steve Balestrieri

A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

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