Jets at Patriots Stats-Based Preview

John Morgan
October 24, 2015 at 7:00 am ET

The 5-0 New England Patriots meet the 4-1 New York Jets in a battle for first place in the AFC East on Sunday. Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game rather than gross totals. I have used per-game stats rather than totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering that teams have played a different number of games thus far due to bye weeks.

Looking at these numbers I was a bit surprised – as I am sure many others will be – at how often the Jets ranked relatively high (top ten in the NFL) in offensive categories. It is also really amazing to see how often the New England offense and Jet defense both rank number one, or number one and two in one statistical category after another. This game is gearing up to be a classic clash between a great offense and and an elite defense.

There are a few areas that stand out that could be troublesome for the Patriots, and they all involve the Jets’ offense versus the Patriots’ defense. New York does very well on the ground (first in rushing yards per game and seventh in yards per carry) while the Patriots are below average (22nd and 30th, respectively) in those two categories. The Jet offense is also far more efficient on third down than the New England defense is, and the same holds true for the NYJ red zone offense in comparison to the Patriot RZ defense.

On the other hand the Patriots have some statistical advantages as well. The Jets’ propensity to turn the ball over (seven interceptions and three fumbles) could very well be a turning point in Sunday’s game, and the Patriots perform far better on special teams; that too could very well be a key point in the outcome of this game.

Patriots Offense versus Jets Defense

Scoring: Pats 36.6 (1st); Jets 15.0 (1st)

Yardage: Pats 422 (2nd); Jets 269 (1st)

First Downs: Pats 26.2 (1st); Jets 16.2 (1st)

Yards per Play: Pats 6.4 (3rd); Jets 4.3 (2nd)

Yards per Drive: Pats 40.4 (1st); Jets 23.2 (1st)

Points per Drive: Pats 3.39 (1st); Jets 1.02 (1st)

Drive Success Rate: Pats .798 (1st); Jets .604 (1st)

Points per Play: Pats .556 (2nd); Jets .241 (1st)

Touchdowns: Pats 4.2 (1st); Jets 1.8 (1st)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Pats 3.4 (1st); Jets 0.8 (1st)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Pats 73.9% (2nd); Jets 33.3% (1st)

Plays per Game: Pats 65.8 (14th); Jets 62.2 (7th)

Third Down Conversions: Pats 5.8 (12th); Jets 4.6 (7th)

Third Down Percentage: Pats 50.9% (1st); Jets 31.9% (4th)

Punts per Score: Pats 0.4 (1st); Jets 2.1 (1st)

Rushing Yards: Pats 97.2 (21st); Jets 82.6 (2nd)

Yards per Rush: Pats 4.08 (16th); Jets 3.50 (2nd)

Passing Yards: Pats 325 (2nd); Jets 187 (2nd)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Pats 8.6 (4th); Jets 5.4 (1st)

Completion Percentage: Pats 70.6% (2nd); Jets 52.4% (1st)

Passer Rating: Pats 118.4 (1st); Jets 60.9 (1st)

Complete Passes: Pats 27.8 (4th); Jets 19.4 (4th)

Incomplete Passes: Pats 11.6 (9th); Jets 17.6 (1st)

Quarterback Sacks: Pats 2.6 (21st); Jets 1.6 (25th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Pats 14.6 (16th); Jets 12.0 (22nd)

 

Jets Offense versus Pats Defense

Scoring: Jets 25.8 (7th); Pats 20.6 (11th)

Yardage: Jets 380 (8th); Pats 356 (17th)

First Downs: Jets 20.4 (16th); Pats 20.6 (13th)

Yards per Play: Jets 5.7 (8th); Pats 5.4 (13th)

Yards per Drive: Jets 29.9 (23rd); Pats 31.3 (11th)

Points per Drive: Jets 2.08 (10th); Pats 1.80 (12th)

Drive Success Rate: Jets .685 (19th); Pats .705 (16th)

Points per Play: Jets .384 (9th); Pats .315 (10th)

Touchdowns: Jets 3.0 (8th); Pats 2.6 (15th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Jets 2.8 (4th); Pats 1.8 (15th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Jets 73.7% (3rd); Pats 69.2% (28th)

Plays per Game: Jets 67.2 (6th); Pats 65.4 (15th)

Third Down Conversions: Jets 6.2 (7th); Pats 5.6 (24th)

Third Down Percentage: Jets 43.1% (8th); Pats 40.0% (20th)

Punts per Score: Jets 1.0 (9th); Pats 1.3 (8th)

Rushing Yards: Jets 146 (1st); Pats 114.6 (22nd)

Yards per Rush: Jets 4.48 (7th); Pats 4.86 (30th)

Passing Yards: Jets 234 (21st); Pats 241 (15th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Jets 6.9 (18th); Pats 7.0 (10th)

Completion Percentage: Jets 62.6% (19th); Pats 64.2% (15th)

Passer Rating: Jets 83.4 (18th); Pats 87.5 (11th)

Complete Passes: Jets 21.4 (22nd); Pats 24.4 (21st)

Incomplete Passes: Jets 12.8 (14th); Pats 13.6 (14th)

Quarterback Sacks: Jets 0.4 (1st); Pats 3.8 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Jets 1.6 (1st); Pats 25.4 (2nd)

 

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.6 (2nd);  Jet Takeaways: 3.0 (1st)

Jet Giveaways: 2.0 (27th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (18th)

 

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 7.8 (19th); Jets 6.6 (6th)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 70.0 (27th); Jets 68.2 (25th)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 9.4 (3rd); Jets 8.0 (10th)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 96.8 (1st); Jets 61.8 (16th)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency – Total DVOA: Patriots 44.4% (2nd); Jets 26.9% (5th)

Team Efficiency – Total DAVE: Patriots 37.5% (1st); Jets 19.6% (5th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 32.8% (1st); Jets 5.4% (10th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -3.7% (8th); Jets -29.4% (2nd)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 7.9% (3rd); Jets -7.9% (31st)



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