Why is Lugo thought to be a hitter?

[shakadave]

I keep reading that the Sox made a decision to trade in a defensive shortstop for one who's an offensive threat. But Lugo over seven seasons has averaged 9.8 HR, about 46 RBI, with a .277 average. Why is this considered to be such good offense? That's not even half of Nomar's HR or RBI. Why would we want numbers like this for our leadoff hitter? I'd have him bat 8th --- so what if he steals a few bases?--- and realize we have weakened the team.

 

[Digger44]

Dave from what I remember from fantasy baseball he seems to have a lot more potential, big flashes, and good discipline. I don't understand baseball all that much but many seem to think he is close to a breakout. Look at Millege for the Mets. Some say he is the next Griffey or Bonds. I look at him and see a guy not doing well right now. It's very different from the NFL. I just don't get it yet either.

 

[DropKick]

I keep reading that the Sox made a decision to trade in a defensive shortstop for one who's an offensive threat. But Lugo over seven seasons has averaged 9.8 HR, about 46 RBI, with a .277 average. Why is this considered to be such good offense? That's not even half of Nomar's HR or RBI. Why would we want numbers like this for our leadoff hitter? I'd have him bat 8th --- so what if he steals a few bases?--- and realize we have weakened the team.

It's all spin Do you know anyone who is thrilled with who we put at SS since OC in 2004?

We needed a shortstop (again) and there wasn't much on the market. Who else was available that had a better average?

His hitting could be better now that he faces Tampa Bay 19 times a year. Conversely, since he doesn't see our bullpen 19 times a year, it could get worse.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

You used 3 horrible statistics to measure Lugo. Average is much worse than OBP and home runs and RBIs are an awful way to measure a top of the order guy. Oh yeah, and RBIs is an awful stat in general. I'm not the most versed
in presenting stats so I won't bother finding his VORP, WARP, and all that but I can present you batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage. His career is fairly average .277/.340/.402, though he had a better year in '05 and last year before the Dodgers decided to misuse him and bench him he was putting up .308/.373/.498 in Tampa. For comparison Gonzalez gave us .255/.299/.397 last year.

It should also be noted his stats are much better in Fenway throughout his career.

Lugo isn't a star. He won't put up amazing stats. He's a hell of a lot better than the guy they had at shortstop last year though. He'll give you stats similar to Renteria (except in Boston) and a little better than Cabrera. I think solid best describes him.

Another value he brings is that, unlike Renteria, we know he can play in the AL East.

Lugo was a safe solution at ss. He isn't going to be a star but he won't crap the bed either. That predictability is valuable, and it helps to prevent what happened last year where the lineup had something like 5 holes in it. I have no clue where you get any notion that the team has been weakened.

 

[Foley]

His career numbers are better than both Gonzalez and Cabrera. And judging by his three year splits hes been a much better hitter when leading off (.298BA .369OBP .460SLG) than when in any other spot in the order.

And he really is a good defensive shortstop too. Defense is one of the hardest things to measure statistically, but considering that practically all defensive metrics consider him to be an above average defensive SS I'd tend to believe them.

 

[shakadave]

Dave from what I remember from fantasy baseball he seems to have a lot more potential, big flashes, and good discipline. I don't understand baseball all that much but many seem to think he is close to a breakout. Look at Millege for the Mets. Some say he is the next Griffey or Bonds. I look at him and see a guy not doing well right now. It's very different from the NFL. I just don't get it yet either.

Interesting. How old is he? If he's like 24 there may be something to the hype.

 

[shakadave]

You used 3 horrible statistics to measure Lugo. Average is much worse than OBP and home runs and RBIs are an awful way to measure a top of the order guy. Oh yeah, and RBIs is an awful stat in general.

I know there are other stats, yet batting average tells you SOMETHING. And RBIs aren't impossible from the leadoff spot --- how many did Damon usually give us?

Lugo isn't a star. He won't put up amazing stats. He's a hell of a lot better than the guy they had at shortstop last year though. He'll give you stats similar to Renteria (except in Boston) and a little better than Cabrera. I think solid best describes him.

Sounds all right. I may be old fashioned --- when I hear $9m a year I instantly think of a very good player.

Another value he brings is that, unlike Renteria, we know he can play in the AL East.

I have no clue where you get any notion that the team has been weakened.
I probably meant moreso that we've been weakened compared to Nomah (even though Nomah=Choker) and I really liked the clutch hitting of Cabrera with a little pop in his bat. I also liked Renteria better than everyone else did. Last year's SS might be a wash vs. our new one, but did we spend $9m on last year's?

. .. ... ....

 

[jaychamp]

.340 OBP for a lead off kind of sucks, but when he does get on base he will cause fits w/pitchers because of his speed. Especially helpful in close games, and the #2 hitter(Youk perhaps) will get more fastballs.

Youk's OBP was great but I think his lack of speed hurt us sometimes.

I still think we should have signed Cabrera. Stepped up in the clutch, solid fielder, good attitude, wouldn't have won a WS w/o him. I guess the FO didn't find those qualities important.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

shakadave:

Damon's RBI totals in Boston:

'02 - 63
'03 - 67
'04 - 94
'05 - 75

Lugo RBI totals (leaving out '02 when he played half the season and last year when the Dodgers messed him up):

'03 - 55
'04 - 75
'05 - 57

Damon is a better hitter, and I don't think anyone is here to really argue a contrary point. You have to take into account though that Damon was in a much better lineup and often had guys on base in front of him ('04 batting champ Bill Mueller) and played half of his games in Fenway. That closes the gap some.

In an offseason where guys are getting $15M+ I don't think $9M for a good player is all that bad. I'd rather the sox were paying him $6M a year but it isn't my money.

I really think you're viewing our past shortstops through rose-colored glasses. I'd sacrifice babies for late-'90s Nomar. I'd rather have Lugo than '04 Nomar though, who was awful defensively and no longer was an offensive force. I don't really remember all of these clutch performances that everyone seems to invoke whenever Cabrera's name comes up (though I do remember a big double off the wall in one of his first games pretty vividly). Maybe I'm simply forgetting but I tend to attribute it to people romanticizing '04. And Gonzo was so thoroughly horrible offensively that I am excited for the Julio Lugo era. Calling Lugo-Gonzo a wash is being incredibly kind to Gonzo and slapping Lugo in the face.

jaychamp:

the career .340 OBP is kinda crappy, though that is weighed down by earlier seasons in the .320s and .330s. I feel pretty coinfident we'll see something better than that when looking at his recent stats, his stats at Fenway, and his stats when leading off.

FYI Cabrera's career line is .269/.317/.403. He was ok last year and bad in '05.

 

[shakadave]

shakadave:

Damon's RBI totals in Boston:

'02 - 63
'03 - 67
'04 - 94
'05 - 75

Lugo RBI totals (leaving out '02 when he played half the season and last year when the Dodgers messed him up):

'03 - 55
'04 - 75
'05 - 57

Damon is a better hitter, and I don't think anyone is here to really argue a contrary point. You have to take into account though that Damon was in a much better lineup and often had guys on base in front of him ('04 batting champ Bill Mueller) and played half of his games in Fenway. That closes the gap some.

In an offseason where guys are getting $15M+ I don't think $9M for a good player is all that bad. I'd rather the sox were paying him $6M a year but it isn't my money.

I really think you're viewing our past shortstops through rose-colored glasses. I'd sacrifice babies for late-'90s Nomar. I'd rather have Lugo than '04 Nomar though, who was awful defensively and no longer was an offensive force. I don't really remember all of these clutch performances that everyone seems to invoke whenever Cabrera's name comes up (though I do remember a big double off the wall in one of his first games pretty vividly). Maybe I'm simply forgetting but I tend to attribute it to people romanticizing '04. And Gonzo was so thoroughly horrible offensively that I am excited for the Julio Lugo era. Calling Lugo-Gonzo a wash is being incredibly kind to Gonzo and slapping Lugo in the face.

jaychamp:

the career .340 OBP is kinda crappy, though that is weighed down by earlier seasons in the .320s and .330s. I feel pretty coinfident we'll see something better than that when looking at his recent stats, his stats at Fenway, and his stats when leading off.

FYI Cabrera's career line is .269/.317/.403. He was ok last year and bad in '05.

Good info --- thanks! I think if you could find data on Cabrera's postseason stats you'd see that he was clutch. Hopefully Lugo will be, too, because we're on our way back to the postseason!

 

[IcyPatriot]

I keep reading that the Sox made a decision to trade in a defensive shortstop for one who's an offensive threat. But Lugo over seven seasons has averaged 9.8 HR, about 46 RBI, with a .277 average. Why is this considered to be such good offense? That's not even half of Nomar's HR or RBI. Why would we want numbers like this for our leadoff hitter? I'd have him bat 8th --- so what if he steals a few bases?--- and realize we have weakened the team.

Prophetic post by shakadave ... too bad dave didn't have Theo's ear before theo wasted $36 million.