What is Thompkins's ceiling?

[patsinthesnow]

I saw an interesting tidbit today that has me excited and my homer koolaid thoughts flowing.

NFL rookie WRs to surpass 1,000 yards:

John Jefferson -1978
Joey Galloway- 1995
Terry Glenn - 1996
Randy Moss - 1998
Anquan Boldin - 2003
Michael Clayton - 2004
Marques Colston - 2006
AJ Green - 2011

7 of those WRs ended up being NFL #1, top 10 WRs. The only outlier is Clayton.

Thompkins pace:

60 receptions 1,028 yards 12 TDs

One could argue KT only has respectable stats due to being thrown at alot, but he's being thrown at alot because he's open. If he stops dropping easy ones, stumbling around on the field, and gains better awareness over the course of the season, how good can KT become?

Is he the next stud WR in the NFL, a quality #2/#3 career WR, or worse?

 

[JackBauer]

Hopefully higher than Michael Clayton.

 

[wizwor]

He's an amazing juggler. I wish I didn't know that

 

[Marqui]

Remember that Thompkins is 25. Still think he's going to have a really good career though.

 

[Sciz]

He's easily got the potential to be a #1 receiver. He's a bit of a throwback in that he's not in the Calvin Johnson or AJ Green mold, but a bit more of Chad Johnson (which has been mentioned a ton) or the healthy version of the hobbled guy last night, Roddy White. The raw talent isn't too exceptional by top WR standards, but he does so many of the little things so well.

 

[Mack Herron]

KT was my binkie so I am as excited as anyone. Still, after 4 games the possibilities are wide open and I wouldn't rush to high expectations any more than I would give up on Sudfeld. I agree with previous comments that he lacks exceptional size, speed or quickness, is already 25 years old, and lets too many balls get into his body instead of catching them earlier in his hands. Also had another bad drop last night (if that were Welker...). A exciting start, but still a long way to go.

 

[tmracht]

John Jefferson -1978 (22 years old)
Joey Galloway- 1995 (23 years old)
Terry Glenn - 1996 (22 years old)
Randy Moss - 1998 (21 years old)
Anquan Boldin - 2003 (22 years old)
Michael Clayton - 2004 (21 years old)
Marques Colston - 2006 (23 years old)
AJ Green - 2011 (23 years old)

Kenbrell Thompkins - 2013 (25 years old)

One minor bit of context is the age of their rookie years which are added above. Comparing him to players starting their careers 2 or 3 years younger than him at the time of the opening of the season is difficult.

You end up comparing people on different places on their development curve. This isn't to diminish what Thompkins has done, but many of those players had outstanding seasons at significantly younger ages.

As for a predictive matter it may not mean much, he's got no reason he shouldn't develop into a very good receiver for all the reasons listed in this thread, just hard to compare him to other "Rookie Seasons" when he's further along in his development time.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Somewhere between options 2 and 3. His absolute ceiling is probably "adequate #1 receiver in a traditional offense", with his more realistic ceiling being "good #2 receiver, adequate #1 in an offense with a variety of receiving weapons". A lot of guys have that ceiling at this stage in their careers, though, and few ever reach that level.

As far as where I expect him to end up, I'd guess that once he's done developing he'll be somewhere between David Givens and Deion Branch - guys who are ideally second options on offense, playing opposite someone who is more athletically dominant that commands double coverage. Dobson has the physical tools to be that guy, but he has a long way to go in terms of development. I like what I've seen from him so far, though.

For the moment, I think your offense is in pretty decent shape if he's your third option in the passing game, and that's high praise for any rookie, let alone an UDFA. He'll benefit a lot from the return of Gronk and Amendola, who should ensure that he doesn't have to deal with being doubled at any point this season.

 

[bostonia3333]

People aren't kidding when they say the NFL is a week to week league--this thread is a tad out of control. His ceiling is nowhere close to prime Chad Johnson....early 2000s Chad Johnson was a top 5 WR in a sick wideout league at the time.

Thompkins is more of a 2005 Branch mold, even saying that is a huge stretch. Thompkins needs to play like he did at Atlanta for 2-3 more weeks to pass Edelman on the depth or "trust" chart.

Thompkins drops way too many passes to be considered elite, plus he seems to jump too early when passes are thrown his way.

 

[RIpats88]

People aren't kidding when they say the NFL is a week to week league--this thread is a tad out of control. His ceiling is nowhere close to prime Chad Johnson....early 2000s Chad Johnson was a top 5 WR in a sick wideout league at the time.

Thompkins is more of a 2005 Branch mold, even saying that is a huge stretch. Thompkins needs to play like he did at Atlanta for 2-3 more weeks to pass Edelman on the depth or "trust" chart.

Thompkins drops way too many passes to be considered elite, plus he seems to jump too early when passes are thrown his way.

I think its a bit too much to ask that he be able to put up 127yards each game though...especially with Gronk/Amendola coming back soon...edelmans production should drop abit with those two coming back as well

but anyways, what matters right now is his ceiling this season...and IMO I think he provides you more versatility than Brandon Lloyd would...he already is averaging 17.1 yards per catch so he gives you that deep threat and unlike Lloyd isn't afraid to take contact...

last night you saw that brady can just throw it up there and expect his receiver to make a play...and once Gronk/Amendola are patrolling the middle taking up DB's it should open up more for him deep(and Edelman as well) .I expect the drops to improve as well..these rookies seem to be getting better and improving drastically each game..they give us that athleticism and speed we've been missing from our WR's in recent years

 

[Sciz]

Thompkins drops way too many passes to be considered elite, plus he seems to jump too early when passes are thrown his way.

Good thing this thread specifically asks about his ceiling rather than what he is right now.

 

[Tunescribe]

Here is Thompkins' ceiling in North Attleboro:

 

[JoeSixPat]

He's easily got the potential to be a #1 receiver. He's a bit of a throwback in that he's not in the Calvin Johnson or AJ Green mold, but a bit more of Chad Johnson (which has been mentioned a ton) or the healthy version of the hobbled guy last night, Roddy White. The raw talent isn't too exceptional by top WR standards, but he does so many of the little things so well.

Correct. If the raw talent were there he would have been drafted - quite high in fact.

But some of the other strikes against him may have contributed to that, and we've seen past UDFAs (and 6th round picks) evolve beyond their raw talent before. So it's really up to Thompkins.

I will say, some of the passes he's caught haven't exactly involved him being wide open with separation - there's been some luck, but I won't hold that against a guy - he made the catch when it counted.

 

[JMC00]

just hard to compare him to other "Rookie Seasons" when he's further along in his development time.

Development time of what? Because a rookie in the NFL is a rookie in the NFL.

Thompkins played for El Camino Community College in '08 an '09 and then had to sit out of the 2010 season and then played 2 seasons at Cincinnati.

El Camnio Community College for 2 years and Cincinnati for 2 years does not scream further along in development.

 

[ausbacker]

Once Amendola regains health, he'll be the Patriots #1 Wide Receiver and #2 receiving option. Once Gronkowski regains full health, he's the clear cut #1 receiving option. From there, it's up to you who you designate as the #3 between Edelman and Thompkins.

 

[FilPats]

Somewhere between options 2 and 3. His absolute ceiling is probably "adequate #1 receiver in a traditional offense", with his more realistic ceiling being "good #2 receiver, adequate #1 in an offense with a variety of receiving weapons". A lot of guys have that ceiling at this stage in their careers, though, and few ever reach that level.

As far as where I expect him to end up, I'd guess that once he's done developing he'll be somewhere between David Givens and Deion Branch - guys who are ideally second options on offense, playing opposite someone who is more athletically dominant that commands double coverage. Dobson has the physical tools to be that guy, but he has a long way to go in terms of development. I like what I've seen from him so far, though.

For the moment, I think your offense is in pretty decent shape if he's your third option in the passing game, and that's high praise for any rookie, let alone an UDFA. He'll benefit a lot from the return of Gronk and Amendola, who should ensure that he doesn't have to deal with being doubled at any point this season.

That catch over a defender was like Branch a long time ago in a play-off game vs the steelers. Go Pats

 

[patsinthesnow]

He's easily got the potential to be a #1 receiver. He's a bit of a throwback in that he's not in the Calvin Johnson or AJ Green mold, but a bit more of Chad Johnson (which has been mentioned a ton) or the healthy version of the hobbled guy last night, Roddy White. The raw talent isn't too exceptional by top WR standards, but he does so many of the little things so well.

It's weird. The days of the technician/route runner top WRs are gone. (excluding Wes, but he doesn't really run the entire route tree) All the elite ones are physical freaks/height/speed guys.

Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
AJ Green
Demaryius Thomas
Brandon Marshall
Vincent Jackson
Dez Bryant

There is no Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, etc. in the league right now.

 

[50-yard-line]

Somewhere between options 2 and 3. His absolute ceiling is probably "adequate #1 receiver in a traditional offense", with his more realistic ceiling being "good #2 receiver, adequate #1 in an offense with a variety of receiving weapons". A lot of guys have that ceiling at this stage in their careers, though, and few ever reach that level.

As far as where I expect him to end up, I'd guess that once he's done developing he'll be somewhere between David Givens and Deion Branch - guys who are ideally second options on offense, playing opposite someone who is more athletically dominant that commands double coverage. Dobson has the physical tools to be that guy, but he has a long way to go in terms of development. I like what I've seen from him so far, though.

For the moment, I think your offense is in pretty decent shape if he's your third option in the passing game, and that's high praise for any rookie, let alone an UDFA. He'll benefit a lot from the return of Gronk and Amendola, who should ensure that he doesn't have to deal with being doubled at any point this season.

If I had typed out my post, it would have mirrored this.

Somewhere between Givens and Branch was exactly my thought. He's going to have a good career, a really good career.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Brady says he reminds him of Ocho Cinco. I'd have to agree.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Talk to me AFTER he has played a full season. I think he'll be a good one. But very small sample size.

Thompkins is more of a 2005 Branch mold, even saying that is a huge stretch. Thompkins needs to play like he did at Atlanta for 2-3 more weeks to pass Edelman on the depth or "trust" chart.

Thompkins drops way too many passes to be considered elite, plus he seems to jump too early when passes are thrown his way.

Branch and Thompkins play NOTHING alike. I don't know how good Thompkins is yet but he's a lot more physical and bigger than branch. He's also more of a real deep threat. Branch thrived on those quick short patterns and lacked the stature to outjump defenders for the ball.

Once Amendola regains health, he'll be the Patriots #1 Wide Receiver and #2 receiving option. Once Gronkowski regains full health, he's the clear cut #1 receiving option. From there, it's up to you who you designate as the #3 between Edelman and Thompkins.

Amendola hasn't proven much except that he needs to get healthy. Gronk was the all time best at TE when healthy, but I doubt he will be 100% when he gets back for a few games. In the meantime, KT is healthy, and I see Kenbrell continuing to improve. You might be underestimating his prospects.

In the Pats offense it's not as simple as saying - this guy is going to be our #3 receiver or #2 or whatnot. It hasn't been since Randy Moss that we had a true #1. Brady's #1 guy now is the open guy. I like that and hope it continues.