Week 11 Patriots Clinching Scenarios

[jrfitz06]

I know this is a little obnoxious but I couldn't sleep so here you go if you find yourself wondering who to root for that will help the pats clinch the earliest possible in the next 3 weeks Below is a table. The Red indicates a lose for the team at the left hand side of the row and green indicates a win. The table of the right hand side is the corresponding record of the teams. (Explanations at the bottom)



Ok so for the purpose of clinching we need to figure worst case scenario after week 11 so if the Patriots lose out after week 11 they would finish 10-6 so everyone win 7 or more loses would be eliminated:
(San Diego, Kansas City, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Baltimore, & Cleveland)

Houston can be eliminated from the picture too because if they finished at 10-6 they would win the AFC south.

Buffalo would be eliminated based on the pats head to head sweep of them in the case of a 2-team tie or
if it was a 3-team tie Buffalo would be eliminated based on their division record (3-3 vs the pats @ 4-2)

Miami would be eliminated based on their division record also (3-3 vs the pats @ 4-2)

the Jets tiebreaker would come down to strength of victory
Head to head is the same, division record are both 4-2, common games are both 9-5, & conference record are both 7-5.
So if we were to beat the Jets on strength of victory we would win the division, if we lost the tiebreaker their would be 3 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots. (Oakland, Pittsburgh, & New England). Strength of victory can't be calculated until all games in the season have been played.

If the Raiders & Steelers were both to win out from week 11 on the raiders would be 11-5 and take the first wild card spot and the Steelers and Patriots would be tied at 10-6 and the Patriots would get the last playoff spot based on head to head win.

If the Raiders, Steelers, & Patriots all finished at 10-6 the Steelers would be eliminated based on if one club has lost to each of the others and the Patriots would clinch a wildcard berth.

So if the patriots win their next 3 games and everything on the above table happens the Patriots could either clinch a playoff berth before thanksgiving.

 

[Bruins29]

Ehhhh. Clinching a "playoff spot" is so 2002. We only care about clinching HFA. Sometimes clinching a bye is acceptable.

Everything else is royal dog **** and an utter failure.

Clinching a Playoff Spot is such a Jags/Browns thing

 

[VectorPrime]

We clinched the division the moment Judge Berman laid down his ruling. It might take until literally week 17 to clinch HFA though. If we do.

 

[jrfitz06]

I agree clinching a playoff berth is nothing special but clinching a playoff berth after only 10 games is something that has only been done a hand full of times since the schedule went to 16 games only 4 teams have clinched a playoff berth in week 11 or before:
Bears (1985)
49ers (1997)
Eagles (2004)
Patriots (2007)

 

[goheels22002]

Good work by the OP.

The interesting thing is that the lack of parity in both conferences. Others have written about the fact that the battle for division titles will all but be decided this week in 3 of the 4 AFC divisions, assuming the Patriots beat the Washington football club, the Bengals beat the Browns, and the Broncos beat the Colts.

The Patriots clinch early as much for their excellence as for the volatility of the teams in their division. The Jets look like they're on a good path with Todd Bowles, but won't be if they keep giving huge contracts to a few players. They lack depth everywhere which is beginning to show already.

The only division with a race is the AFC South which is more like the Bataan Death March than a divisional competition.

The problem is trying to figure out what is causing this. The teams at the top do not adhere to any simple generalizations. The Patriots, Broncos, and Bengals are different teams with widely divergent strengths. Stalwarts like the Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, and Colts look like teams that let themselves get old (or bit on free agents past their prime) or just botched up their caps. A lack of discipline with the salary cap destroys depth in a two-year window (see the 49ers and Ravens who competed in the 2012 Super Bowl.)

The Broncos defense is extraordinarily good so far. I wondered about how good until I watched the Green Bay game. They look like the 2012 49ers to me. Great at all levels and hit like mad. Not deep, though. The Broncos look well-coached to me. They're adapting to Manning's age and weaknesses, and Wade has the defense prepared for their opponents. I think they might shut out the Colts at Indy this weekend with the disarray going on there. I hope the Patriots come out of the Broncos game in one piece. The Broncos aren't built to last - too much cap money tied up in a few veterans. A couple of key injuries and they'll get exposed in the playoffs.

The Bengals look good everywhere. That is a well-constructed team with lots of speed and just sound football players every place. What really stands out is the offensive line which can run block and pass block very effectively. They're third in points per drive and Dalton does not throw interceptions like he once did. The Bengals are young, too. If they can manage their cap, that team will be around for a while. Coaching is the big question mark when the playoffs arrive.

The Patriots are the Patriots. The positive for us is the youth of this football team. It's built to withstand a transition at QB should that come to pass in the next two to three years. But the Patriots have always been the outlier in a league built for parity. That continues with the Kraft-Belichick-Brady brain trust.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Imagine clinching a playoff berth before thanksgiving LOL

 

[1960Pats]

IMO the Polianization of the rules to make things easier for Peyton have actually made QBs more valuable than ever in the NFL, and one of the beneficiaries has been Tommy LomBrady and the Pats. Thank you Pockface Polian.

As for the playoff picture in the AFC, below is the list of the top 7 teams in the AFC and their remaining games with the other teams on the list;

E - NE 7-0 (Denver, NYJ)
W - Denver 7-0 (Cincy, Indy, NE, Oakland)
N - Cincy 7-0 (Denver, Pitt)
S - Indy 3-5 (Denver, Pitt)
Oakland 4-3 (Denver, Pitt)
NYJ - 4-3 (NE)
Pitt - 4-4 (Cincy, Denver, Indy, Oakland)

This is the longer NFC list;

S - Carolina 7-0 (Atlanta(2), GB, NYG)
N - GB 6-1 (Ariz, Carolina, Minny(2))
W - Ariz 6-2 (GB, Minny, Seattle(2), SL)
E - NYG 4-4 (Carolina, Minny)
Atlanta 6-2 (Carolina(2), Minny, NO)
Minny 5-2 (Ariz, Atlanta, GB(2), NYG, Seattle, SL)
SL 4-3 (Ariz, Minny, Seattle)
Seattle 4-4 (Ariz(2), Minny, SL)
NO 4-4 (Atlanta, Carolina)

 

[BlueThunder]

I just enjoy every game week to week......

Too many variables with "projecting"....

One injury to a QB could ruin any team's chances......

Relax and enjoy the ride !