Alamo's Predict The Score Predict the Score RESULTS, Week 8 CLE @ NE

[Tunescribe]

Sorry I am leaving you in the dust, @Tunescribe

I will accept you apology for having more dumb luck than me, only because that's what it is.

 

[Dingleberry]

Top 5, baby.

Don't look up. You won't like what's hanging right above you in the 5 hole....

 

[Nikolai]

From like 87th to 31st the last few weeks??

I think I went 3-4 weeks in a row just saying "**** it" and predicting 31-9.

 

[Chevy]

Maybe it's time to play the lottery, too.

 

[DarrylS]

#8 is just great... considering how much time, thought and energy goes into these picks..

 

[PatsDeb]

I will accept you apology for having more dumb luck than me, only because that's what it is.

Who you callin' dumb d a m m i t!

 

[BlueThunder]

#8 is just great... considering how much time, thought and energy goes into these picks..

Try standing closer to the dart board That's what I'm doing this week....

 

[BlueThunder]

A missed FG for 3 points means alot of upward movement to many prognosticators here .....

 

[Tunescribe]

Who you callin' dumb d a m m i t!

Not calling YOU dumb, just your luck. But, if your picks are resulting from an original version of advanced analytics (Deb-O-Metrics), please PM me with the methodology.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Random thoughts on a few of the posts above @Tunescribe , @PatsDeb , @BlueThunder , @Nikolai

Everybody's right. It's a mix of dumb luck, gut and knowledge: knowledge of the game in general, of our team and of the opponent (records, ranking and injuries) and of things like gametime weather and the strength of Home Field advantage in any given case.

Where we stand now...at the beginning of November...doesn't matter all that much...I'm 31st, was 159th and could be in the top 25 or bottom 100 again after this week.

I do think, though, that anyone who is in the top 10 in this contest in the middle of December is running on more than luck and gut. OK. A little luck for sure (two missed FG's and an extra point or two can cost eight or more points), but a lot more knowledge. But, the best Coaches and Teams are the beneficiaries and the victims of luck...the magic helmet catch put the Pats in a position where they eventually lost one SB and an OB KO put them in the position to win another.

 

[Tunescribe]

Random thoughts on a few of the posts above @Tunescribe , @PatsDeb , @BlueThunder , @Nikolai

Everybody's right. It's a mix of dumb luck, gut and knowledge: knowledge of the game in general, of our team and of the opponent (records, ranking and injuries) and of things like gametime weather and the strength of Home Field advantage in any given case.

Where we stand now...at the beginning of November...doesn't matter all that much...I'm 31st, was 159th and could be in the top 25 or bottom 100 again after this week.

I do think, though, that anyone who is in the top 10 in this contest in the middle of December is running on more than luck and gut. OK. A little luck for sure (two missed FG's and an extra point or two can cost eight or more points), but a lot more knowledge. But, the best Coaches and Teams are the beneficiaries and the victims of luck...the magic helmet catch put the Pats in a position where they eventually lost one SB and an OB KO put them in the position to win another.

I've participated in this contest every year and every year before this one have finished in the top third/top fourth. Trying to figure out why I'm in the bottom tier so far (currently 96th) I'm guessing it's the Pats' average high margin of victory skewed by lights-out defensive play, which we haven't really seen before to this degree. I'll be surprised if the defense continues shutting teams down as it has been.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I've participated in this contest every year and every year before this one have finished in the top third/top fourth. Trying to figure out why I'm in the bottom tier so far (currently 96th) I'm guessing it's the Pats' average high margin of victory skewed by lights-out defensive play, which we haven't really seen before to this degree. I'll be surprised if the defense continues shutting teams down as it has been.

I'm a regular participant as well and wish I was smart enough to have an answer to your quandary. I've finished close to the top a couple of times, but usually end up in the middle of the pack.

My approach is pretty simple. I look at the consensus Vegas line and O/U and try to wait until as close to gametime as possible to see if the line is moving one way or the other. Then I just go with my gut and ask myself two questions. Do I think the Pats will beat the spread or not? Do I go with the Under or the Over? Then it's up to the Football gods. Last week, they were good to me. The spread was around 14 and the O/U was 43 when I last looked at it. I thought the Pats would match the spread v. Cleveland in Foxboro but that 43 points was too high...just because...so I picked 27--13 and got lucky. This week my approach could put me in the crapper. Who knows?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I **** the bed this week. that is all.

 

[sturmrider]

I guess I can console myself with the one similarity I have to Chevy in First Place. I am all by myself in slot 86 no ties

I am only about 50 points off so it means for me to move up to first everyone in front of me has to miss fairly big and I have to be exact on my picks. Oh well another year back in the pack, one of these years I'll figure the Pats out. Hopefully.