Patriots new OC - Alex Van Pelt

[upstater1]

I don't think it's easy simple as that. Drafting a QB high has a 70% failure rate i think, this is obviously influenced by the teams themsleves being bad to be in that position in the first place but drafign a high qb is not a proven route to success. Sure it can happen but it's a gamble. Drafting a non QB such as a WR etc and then bringing in an established QB like Cousins or Mayfield also has it's issues but it's less risky overall.

56% failure rate the last 25 years.

It's really just 50/50.

Cousins has 2 yrs left tops, then he'll be 39.

Drafting a 2nd rder thru 7th rder has a 3% success rate last 25 years.

 

[upstater1]

I’m not saying teams can’t get a QB outside the first round, nobody knows better that than Patriot fans, and when they do it usually happens when they have really good coaches and talent arounff them. However if you want the best model for creating a team that wins consistently, which gives you the best chance at winning Chsmpionships, then that is to get really good young QB and build around them. Building the rest of the teams and hoping you will find a QB has never been a good route to go in the NFL.

And as I said in another post the Patriots are in the fortunate position of being able to get a top QB without having to sacrifice other draft capital to get them. The only way you can do that without giving up multiple picks is to truly suck that year, and this has been suckiest they have been, and the best pick they had in over 30 years. I don’t expect that to come around soon again. Unless they don’t get a QB, then they will have more opportunities like this.

7 out of 221 QBs taken after the 1st round have panned out in the last 25 years: Brady, Brees, Purdy, Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, and Derek Carr who was the 33rd pick in the draft.

Chances of hitting are 3%

 

[festy1986]

The Browns finished 7 games ahead of the Pats with injuries to all of their QBs. Their goal sure as hell wasn't to go 4-13 and get a great draft pick.

The Patriots finished way closer to where they were supposed to than the Browns. Either way, they both failed.

 

[Ollie]

56% failure rate the last 25 years.

It's really just 50/50.

Cousins has 2 yrs left tops, then he'll be 39.

Drafting a 2nd rder thru 7th rder has a 3% success rate last 25 years.

Min was based on an article i read and i guess it depends what you class as success, i can't remember what they used as a marker tbh

 

[The Gr8est]

56% failure rate the last 25 years.

It's really just 50/50.

Cousins has 2 yrs left tops, then he'll be 39.

Drafting a 2nd rder thru 7th rder has a 3% success rate last 25 years.

Some of that can be improved if you REALLY have some inside information.

**** Rehbein provided invaluable intel regarding Brady.

Brady never lost his job. He was replaced by Michigan’s chosen golden boy Drew Henson.

I remember an interview shortly after Brady was drafted and he was asked about the lower weight that was attributed to him and he responded that he didn’t know where that info came from as he hadn’t been at that weight for a long time.

Also, when we want to draft a later round QB we should keep in mind what made Brady great. Now there are a few things that made him great, but if you had to point to one thing it was his brain.

I remember someone described him as being a pentium computer behind center.

So, as long as a QB has the minimal physical requirements, you want him to have a great head for the game.

 

[upstater1]

Min was based on an article i read and i guess it depends what you class as success, i can't remember what they used as a marker tbh

Mine was many years starter. Like an Alex Smith. Kirk Cousins. Derek Carr. Joe Flacco.

 

[Uptown]

 

[ralmat55]

7 out of 221 QBs taken after the 1st round have panned out in the last 25 years: Brady, Brees, Purdy, Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, and Derek Carr who was the 33rd pick in the draft.

Chances of hitting are 3%.

How many of those 214 failures were drafted to be backups or camp arms and never got the reps to develop or an opportunity to start a game much less play enough to establish themselves?

Were Rohan Davey, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Brian Hoyer (UDFA), Zac Robinson and Jacoby Brissett drafted or signed by the Patriots to be developed into starters with Brady here? All but Hoyer are in your calculations.

Now, consider the number of QBs drafted as backups or camp fodder by the “other 31” , and you’ll see how completely useless your calculation is.

Actually, I’m willing to bet the percentage of post 1st round QB who a team commits playing time to develop and establish themselves as “quality” starters is comparable to the miserable percentage of post top 10 1st rounders that do so.

It’s a simple decision. If you think a QB is capable of being a top QB with good health and enough pieces and structure around them, then you select them. If not, you don’t reach for them. You add pieces, you try to develop one from a lesser prospect, and look for the next opportunity to draft or sign one if that fails.

 

[signbabybrady]

Newsbreak a large group of people have different opinions. Felger uses this tactic all the time too.

 

[Ivan]

I’m not “ blindly taking the QB,” I went and read up on the prospects, and watched footage of them playing, and I like all 3 of them. And if they were picking fourth I would be arguing to trade up, because I’m not sold on Penix or Nix, and if that was what was left then I would argue to just take the best player available, Harrison, Alt, etc…, because I don’t believe any of those alternatives are worth a high first, and I probably wouldn’t even use a first on them.

If the Patriots believe one of those guys is their franchise QB then they should take them, I just don’t agree with that.

Stu, if you are tired of talking about then why do you keep asking about it.

 

[Ivan]

You might like all 3 of them but based on previous probability only one of them is likely to pan out..

Great reason not to draft anyone. Draft picks fail sometimes, picking a player is just too risky. Trade all the picks for veterans.

 

[The Gr8est]

How many of those 214 failures were drafted to be backups or camp arms and never got the reps to develop or an opportunity to start a game much less play enough to establish themselves?

Were Rohan Davey, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Brian Hoyer (UDFA), Zac Robinson and Jacoby Brissett drafted or signed by the Patriots to be developed into starters with Brady here? All but Hoyer are in your calculations.

Now, consider the number of QBs drafted as backups or camp fodder by the “other 31” , and you’ll see how completely useless your calculation is.

Actually, I’m willing to bet the percentage of post 1st round QB who a team commits playing time to develop and establish themselves as “quality” starters is comparable to the miserable percentage of post top 10 1st rounders that do so.

It’s a simple decision. If you think a QB is capable of being a top QB with good health and enough pieces and structure around them, then you select them. If not, you don’t reach for them. You add pieces, you try to develop one from a lesser prospect, and look for the next opportunity to draft or sign one if that fails.

I think you make a great point. How many QBs never got the chance to properly develop because they never got the reps in camp?

There are a limited number of QB reps available in training camp, and in addition to evaluating players, a team wants to get their starter the needed reps to get ready for the season.

I remember quickly wanting the Tim Tebow experiment to end once it was clear he didn’t have the ability, but he was taking up valuable reps that could have been used elsewhere.

If was also a disservice to the receivers trying to make the team, having to make do with Tebow’s errant wounded duck throws.

 

[signbabybrady]

Great reason not to draft anyone. Draft picks fail sometimes, picking a player is just too risky. Trade all the picks for veterans.

Didn't the Rams do that....I guess they built a pretty solid team first then traded everything off for Vets to put them over the top. One of the few strategies that have worked other than having Brady or Mahomes.

 

[Ivan]

Didn't the Rams do that....I guess they built a pretty solid team first then traded everything off for Vets to put them over the top. One of the few strategies that have worked other than having Brady or Mahomes.

The Rams drafted Goff 1st overall, and got to a SB with him, then traded him for another first overall pick.

 

[upstater1]

How many of those 214 failures were drafted to be backups or camp arms and never got the reps to develop or an opportunity to start a game much less play enough to establish themselves?

Were Rohan Davey, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Brian Hoyer (UDFA), Zac Robinson and Jacoby Brissett drafted or signed by the Patriots to be developed into starters with Brady here? All but Hoyer are in your calculations.

Now, consider the number of QBs drafted as backups or camp fodder by the “other 31” , and you’ll see how completely useless your calculation is.

Actually, I’m willing to bet the percentage of post 1st round QB who a team commits playing time to develop and establish themselves as “quality” starters is comparable to the miserable percentage of post top 10 1st rounders that do so.

It’s a simple decision. If you think a QB is capable of being a top QB with good health and enough pieces and structure around them, then you select them. If not, you don’t reach for them. You add pieces, you try to develop one from a lesser prospect, and look for the next opportunity to draft or sign one if that fails.

This is deranged to the max. If you get to sit a few years, you'll eventually get your chance. Heck, Matt Cassel got a chance, so did Jacoby Brissett. The other guys simply weren't any good.

Which backup was a permanent backup who never had a chance to start? Name one. Just one. Even Brian Hoyer had a season.

Also, if you're looking at 2nd rounders only, the %s are much much worse because only 3 have worked out, and more than half of those taken were taken in the 2nd round.

Can you name a guy selected as a backup who never got a chance as a starter?

 

[upstater1]

I think you make a great point. How many QBs never got the chance to properly develop because they never got the reps in camp?

There are a limited number of QB reps available in training camp, and in addition to evaluating players, a team wants to get their starter the needed reps to get ready for the season.

I remember quickly wanting the Tim Tebow experiment to end once it was clear he didn’t have the ability, but he was taking up valuable reps that could have been used elsewhere.

If was also a disservice to the receivers trying to make the team, having to make do with Tebow’s errant wounded duck throws.

Sitting back and learning is often a luxury that helps a career. Aaron Rodgers and many others played the backup role. Who was hurt by being a backup?

Most of these guys actually get playing time eventually and a long string of being 1st teamers.

 

[signbabybrady]

Sitting back and learning is often a luxury that helps a career. Aaron Rodgers and many others played the backup role. Who was hurt by being a backup?

Most of these guys actually get playing time eventually and a long string of being 1st teamers.

Michael Bishop

 

[The Gr8est]

Sitting back and learning is often a luxury that helps a career. Aaron Rodgers and many others played the backup role. Who was hurt by being a backup?

Most of these guys actually get playing time eventually and a long string of being 1st teamers.

And a lot of players get limited opportunities, and often due to draft status, if they fail to make a good first impression they “age out” and teams move in to the next thing.

Granted, most of them likely wouldn’t have made it anyway, they were drafted late for a reason, but they still get short shrift on opportunities.

QB reps in games is the most precious commodity for non-ST players.

BB was known to give players the chance to compete regardless of draft status, but not so with other teams.

The Pats got Danny Woodhead because the Rats kept the highly drafted player over the better performer.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Stu, if you are tired of talking about then why do you keep asking about it.

Because you keep replying to my posts. It has already been discussed by you, over and over again which is how I fell into this rat hole to begin with. You can't handle the fact that there are other opinions. I guess I shouldn't be so black and white given all the research that you have done to support your position, LOL

 

[rochrist]

Look at the contenders in the AFC.

K.C. Mahomes, high first Rd., building around him.

Buffalo Allen High first round, building around him.

Miami Tua High first round, building around him.

Texas Stroud 2nd overall Building around him.

Baltimore Jackson first card. Building around him.

Cleveland Watson Drafted first Rd. , Browns gave up 3 first rounders, 3 more picks, and 240 million for him.

Jacksonville Lawrence 1st overall Building around him

Cincy Burrows 1st overall Building around him.

Pittsburgh Pickett first round. Pick. Pitt wants to build around him, but he’s failing so far.


Stu. Feel free to argue against the logic of taking a QB with your first pick and building around them, but historically and contemporaneously this is and has been the best approach to building a winner. Guys like Manning, Kelly , Rivers etc… may not have won a ton of Lombardi’s but they had their team in the mix or Suoer Bowl numerous times. and Manning would likely have had 5 rings if he didn’t have to get knocked out by the GOAT on a regular basis. I don’t want a mediocre QB. For 50 million a year, and I don’t want them to have to give up 3 first rounders to get their QB when they could get him simply by making their pick at no extra cost to them. It may not guarantee a Lombardi, but it certainly gives them the best shot at being a winner who plays for Lombardi’s.

Mahomes was 10th. Allen was 7th. Watson was 12th. Jackson was 32d! Pickett was 20th. (and is awful) Only 4 off that list were even in the top five.

You know who WERE in the top five. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance. Jameis Winston. Marcus Mariota. MItch Trubisky. Blake Bortles. Sam Darnold.

Picking a QB in the top five just because is not a guarantee of success.