Measuring "Movement"

[doesntmatter1]

Interesting to note that, although Tavon Austin didn't run a 3 cone, Brandin Cooks beat or tied Austin on every single measure (including official 40 by one one hundredth).

They look like the same guy when you watch the clips. Weird that Tavon went really high and Cooks hasn't been hyped up whatsoever.

 

[sircole]

Hope I'm doing this right.

Albert Wilson (hey, I'm a one-trick pony)

Explosion: 57 (limited strength on bp-10 reps)
Movement: 17.23 (strong straight-line 4.43 40-yd; weak agility 7.00 3-cone)

It's understandable he's weak since our football facility didn't have a weight room and the team had to lift weights under a tent beside the facility.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's the use of the bench press that bothers me. 10 yard split would be better.

I agree. I incorporated 10 yard split into my own metric for evaluating defensive linemen, as discussed into the explosiveness thread.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm just about to go to work so can't do it myself. Is there any chance you could compare Julian Edelman and Michael Campanaro? He didn't quite have his short area movement skills but seemed very similar to Edelman otherwise. If we are going to lose Edelman, Campanaro seems like a good day 3 replacement. Would appreciate it.

Campanaro: 16.75
Edelman: 16.58

I had already listed them in post #8 above:

- Michael Campanaro 4.46 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.01 SS + 6.77 3C = 16.77. Explosiveness = 69.
- Julian Edelman: explosiveness 60, mobility 16.58 (exceptional lateral movement skills with SS of 3.92 and 3C of 6.62)

Campanaro pretty much matches up in terms of mobility (a little faster straight line speed and a bit less lateral agility, but we're talking hundredths of second differences) and is a bit more explosive (39" VJ vs 36.5" for Edelman, and a bit stronger on the BP).

I think those differences can be significant though. I bit more straight line spead and a bit more explosiveness, including better ability to go up and get the ball, translates into more of a vertical threat. Campanaro looks like he has the raw athleticism to be more than "just" a slot receiver. Steve Smith, for example, had poor lateral mobility (4.25 SS, 7.44 3C) but good straighter speed and explosiveness (4.41 40, 1.51 10-split, 38.5" VJ) which has allowed him to exel as a vertical threat in spite of his diminutive size.

Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham also look like they have the tools to excel as vertical threats or in the slot:

- Brandon Cooks 4.33 40 + 1.51 10-split + 3.81 SS + 6.76 3C = 16.41. Explosiveness = 36" VJ + 10' BJ + 16 BP = 62.
- Odell Beckham 4.43 40 + 1.5 10-split + 3.94 SS + 6.69 3C = 16.56. Explosiveness = 38.5" VJ + 10'2" BJ + 7 BP = 55.

I don't think "explosiveness" as measured by Kirwan has much meaning for WRs, since they don't win short area contests by virtue of it. But the VJ and BJ components are important.

Another way of looking at it is that Cooks has the vertical speed (4.33 40) and short-area speed (1.51 10-split) and important components of explosiveness (36" VJ) to go deep, as well as exceptional quickness and agility (3.81 SS and 6.76 3C). Same for Beckham (4.43 long speed and 1.50 10-split with 39" VJ more than adequate to make him a vertical threat, and 3.94 SS and 6.69 3C should make him a tremendous slot option). It's hard to find defenders who can match up with these guys' combinations of relevant explosiveness and movement skills. These guys are going to be match up nightmares for any team.

 

[sircole]

Steve Smith, for example, had poor lateral mobility (4.25 SS, 7.44 3C) but good straighter speed and explosiveness (4.41 40, 1.51 10-split, 38.5" VJ) which has allowed him to exel as a vertical threat in spite of his diminutive size.

.

Could the physique (Steve Smith-short, thick build) impact the agility drills like the 3-cone?

 

[mayoclinic]

Matthews doesn't have 10-yard splits available. Gayle's faster 40 doesn't have a corresponding 10 yard split, but his slower one does.

Robinson: 17.1

Robinson seems to have better explosiveness (39" VJ, 10'7" BJ) and agility (4.0 SS, 7.0 3C) than he does long speed. The guy who comes to mind for me is Marquest Colston:

- Robinson: 6' 2 5/8" 220#; 4.60 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.0 SS + 7.0 3c = 17.14 mobility; 38.5" VJ + 10'7" BJ.
- Colston 6' 4 5/8" 224#; 4.50 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.44 SS + 6.96 3C = 17.5 mobility (much worse SS, but otherwise comparable); 37" VJ + 10'3" BJ.

Matthews seems to have similar agility to Robinson (4.18 SS, 6.95 3C) but his VJ of 35.5" and BJ of 10' suggest a bit less explosiveness. As you say, there is no 10-yard split for Matthews yet.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, based on prospect analysis I would probably say that 16.75 is the cutoff for elite for DBs, and 17 as excellent; under 16.5 is freakish.

 

[stelfans]

Very very interesting Mayo. Being a 'numbers guy' i love the work you've put into these.
Contrary to what most people think, i believe numbers do tell a lot. You cant select a player based on any of these but they give you amazing information to support your decision.

I dont really have the time now, but i would love to see some kind of correlation test runned on some of those numbers and a graphical representation. Group the metrics and stuff, i think there's a lot of material to work with, its only a matter of time and creativity.

 

[ripatsfan91]

Just a thought for measuring movement ability, one thing that can't be put into numbers or metrics is a player's vision. I think one of the most important qualities in a player is how they see and read the field.

Companaro might have better movement attributes, but does he have the same vision that makes Edelman an elite punt returner?

I thought a good comparison for Robinson was Larry Fitzgerald. Any metrics to back that up? If I am not mistaken, Fitz's 40 yard was in the 4.5s, correct?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The formula. I don't like that short armed player have an advantage in Kirwin's Explosion stat.

It wouldn't be difficult to come up with a correction for that (e.g., subtract the arm length, or multiply the BP number by (arm length/36). I'm not sure what the correct factor is, merely that one should exist somehow.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Could the physique (Steve Smith-short, thick build) impact the agility drills like the 3-cone?

It could and it would be pretty easy to find out with enough data.

Robinson seems to have better explosiveness (39" VJ, 10'7" BJ) and agility (4.0 SS, 7.0 3C) than he does long speed. The guy who comes to mind for me is Marquest Colston:

- Robinson: 6' 2 5/8" 220#; 4.60 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.0 SS + 7.0 3c = 17.14 mobility; 38.5" VJ + 10'7" BJ.
- Colston 6' 4 5/8" 224#; 4.50 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.44 SS + 6.96 3C = 17.5 mobility (much worse SS, but otherwise comparable); 37" VJ + 10'3" BJ.

Matthews seems to have similar agility to Robinson (4.18 SS, 6.95 3C) but his VJ of 35.5" and BJ of 10' suggest a bit less explosiveness. As you say, there is no 10-yard split for Matthews yet.

That's sort of a big height difference. I've been comparing him to Keenan Allen and Alshon Jeffery on the field. I can't find anything on Keenan Allen, but Jeffery had a 17 movement at 6027 216. Pretty close.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

It wouldn't be difficult to come up with a correction for that (e.g., subtract the arm length, or multiply the BP number by (arm length/36). I'm not sure what the correct factor is, merely that one should exist somehow.

We discussed that in the Explosion thread.

 

[sircole]

It could and it would be pretty easy to find out with enough data.

Yeah, you're right. Steve Smith has a body more inline with running backs and there are plenty of backs with good agility drills times. So, it might be he just doesn't have great agility or test very well in drills.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Could the physique (Steve Smith-short, thick build) impact the agility drills like the 3-cone?

All other things being equal, a thicker build means more mass and therefore inertia, making it more difficult to accelerate and decelerate.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an interesting prospect comparison from a raw athleticism perspective:

- Julio Jones (2011): 6' 2 3/4" 220#, 33 3/4" arms, 9 3/4" hands; explosiveness = 38.5 VJ + 11 BJ + 17 BP = 66; mobility = 4.34 40 + 1.50 10-split + 4.25 SS + 6.66 3C = 16.75.

- Jeff Janis (2014): 6' 2 7/8" 219#, 32 1/2 arms, 9" hands; explosiveness = 37.5 VJ + 10'3 BJ + 20 BP = 67; mobility = 4.42 40 + 1.50 10-split + 3.98 SS + 6.64 3C = 16.54.

Athletically, Janis = Jones - a touch of long speed + a bit more lateral agility. Of course, whether he can catch the ball is a question - he's known for drops, and his 9" hand size stands out. And Jones was tremendously accomplished as a WR in terms of his route running and blocking, so I'm not suggesting that Janis is anything like the prospect Jones was. But from a raw athleticism, it's an appealing comparison.

And I would say Alshon Jeffery comes across as a "poor man's Julio Jones" pretty well:

- Alshon Jeffery 6' 2 7/8" 216#, 33" arms, 10 1/4" hands; no BP recorded, but 36.5" VJ and 10'2" BJ; mobility = 4.48 40 + 1.64 10-split + 4.17 SS + 6.61 3C = 17.0. A bit less long speed and burst than Jones, but not that far off.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Ron Brace (5.48 40, 4.73 short shuttle) was more quick than fast according to this screen, but the fact is he was horribly slow and not particularly quick.

Funniest thing I've seen on here in a while.

Good stuff Brother Mayo. I had forgotten what a freak Mychal Kendricks is... finished with the DBs.

 

[mayoclinic]

A couple of interesting numbers form the past:

1. Cameron Wake (2006). 6'3" 236#; explosiveness = 45.5" VJ (yes, that's correct) + 10'10" BJ + 20 BP = 75 (elite); mobility = 4.65 40 + 1.63 10-split + 4.13 SS + 7.12 3C = 17.53 (borderline excellent).

2. Dwight Freeney (2002). 6'1" 266#; explosiveness = 40" VJ + 28 BP; I can't find a broad jump number, but he's almost in the "elite" category based on the vertical and bench press alone (68)!; the only mobility number I can find is a 4.40 40 time, as it's hard to find 10-yard splits, 3-cone and short shuttle times from 2002.

In some ways I think Aaron Donald is analogous to Freeney - who was considered a "pass rush specialist" and too small to be a 3-down DE when he came out in 2002. Donald is also short and undersized for his position with incredible speed and quickness and great strength and explosiveness for his size, tremendous understanding of leverage and hand technique, and a non-stop motor.

 

[mayoclinic]

Funniest thing I've seen on here in a while.

Good stuff Brother Mayo. I had forgotten what a freak Mychal Kendricks is... finished with the DBs.

Again, I'm cautious about reading too much into these metrics, but I think the overall message is that when you see a prospect who has outstanding athletic ability (especially the combination of elite explosiveness + elite mobility) plus some reasonable combination of intelligence, work ethic and motivation, watch out. There's a very high chance that prospect will be successful, and perhaps spectacularly so. Without the intelligence/work ethic/motivation all the athleticism in the world only gets you a Chad Jackson or Marvin Austin.

As a crude first pass, I'd screen for guys who excel in both explosiveness and performance (relative to their positions, of course) and then find out which ones have enough intelligence and fire in their belly. Technique is a plus and will affect length to impact, but if they have enough athleticism and drive they can be coached up.

The formula for success in the NFL is pretty simple, as Maurice Jones-Drew noted years ago: Talent + "Want-To" = Greatness. Athleticism doesn't equal talent, but it's a good start as a screening test.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

A couple of interesting numbers form the past:

1. Cameron Wake (2006). 6'3" 236#; explosiveness = 45.5" VJ (yes, that's correct) + 10'10" BJ + 20 BP = 75 (elite); mobility = 4.65 40 + 1.63 10-split + 4.13 SS + 7.12 3C = 17.53 (borderline excellent).

2. Dwight Freeney (2002). 6'1" 266#; explosiveness = 40" VJ + 28 BP; I can't find a broad jump number, but he's almost in the "elite" category based on the vertical and bench press alone (68)!; the only mobility number I can find is a 4.40 40 time, as it's hard to find 10-yard splits, 3-cone and short shuttle times from 2002.

In some ways I think Aaron Donald is analogous to Freeney - who was considered a "pass rush specialist" and too small to be a 3-down DE when he came out in 2002. Donald is also short and undersized for his position with incredible speed and quickness and great strength and explosiveness for his size, tremendous understanding of leverage and hand technique, and a non-stop motor.

Regarding Dwight Freeney's Broad Jump - a rule I use when filling in blanks for players without a BJ is VJ*3+8. Seems to hold pretty well.

 

[mayoclinic]

I was looking at a few measurables for "flex backs" - RBs with receiving skills and enough power to potentially be 3-down backs:

- Ray Rice (2008): 5'8" 199#; explosiveness = 39.5 VJ + 10'2" BJ + 23 BP = 72; mobility = 4.42 40 + 1.47 10-split + 4.20 SS + 6.65 3C = 16.74 (elite for a WR/CB).
- Matt Forte (2008): 6'2" 217#; 33 VJ + 9'10" BJ + 23 BP = 65 (good but not elite); 4.44 40 + 1.49 10-split + 4.23 SS + 6.84 3C = 17 (borderline excellent for a WR/CB, and exceptional for a 217# RB).
- Shane Vereen (2011): 5' 10 1/4" 210#; explosiveness = 34 VJ + 9'7" BJ + 31 BP = 74 (elite); mobility = 4.49 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.28 SS + 6.95 3C = 17.28 (good but not elite for a WR/CB).
- Doug Martin (2012): 5' 9 1/4" 223#; 36 VJ + 10 BJ + 28 BP = 74 (elite); mobility = 4.46 40 + 1.60 10-split + 4.16 SS + 6.79 3C (borderline excellent for a WR/CB, and extraordinary for a 223# RB).
- Bishop Sankey (2014): 5' 9 1/2" 209#; explosiveness = 35.5 VJ + 10'6" BJ + 26 BP = 71 (elite); mobility = 4.47 40 + 1.59 10-split + 4.0 SS + 6.75 3C = 16.81 (borderline elite for a WR/CB).

One sleeper of note:

- Tyler Gaffney (2014): 5' 11 1/2" 220#; explosiveness = no BP, but 36.5 VJ and 9'8" BJ put him likely in the 65-70 range unless he struggles with the bench press; mobility = 4.49 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.18 SS + 6.78 3C = 16.98. Those numbers suggest that Gaffney has the athleticism to be another Matt Forte kind of player. Obviously, it says nothing about his receiving skills.

Out of curiosity, I wondered what Trent Richardson's numbers were like. He never did the vertical or broad jump, so we don't know what his explosiveness was, but I'm guess it wasn't elite based on his play in the NFL; and he never did the short shuttle or 3-cone, so we don't know much about his lateral movement. I think this is a good example of where it might be useful to check some quick numbers to see if they are consistent with what you think you see on film, and perhaps be cautious of buying high on a guy who you haven't checked out very fully.