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Football Outsiders: Keys to beating Atlanta


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Attacking them will be a lot like attacking the 2007 Patriots: find a way to generate pressure with four rushers the majority of the time and double their best WR while forcing the other pieces to beat you. Easier said than done, obviously.
 
My early .02 cents:

Use Chung in a hybrid LB/safety role. He is great in run support as was shown again against Pitt, and I think he's physically strong enough to deal with backs out of the backfield.
 
That's the only football site where reading the comments to an article makes me feel smarter and optimistic about humanity.

The comments are outstanding; the article itself (as one of the commentators points out) more or less circular (when the Falcons don't play well, they have bad Football Outsiders numbers -- well, duh!)
 

Thanks for sharing @BobDigital. Very intriguing stuff:

Individual receiving numbers, though, start to give us some useful information. Julio Jones, for example, had a very similar receiving DVOA overall (31.8%) as he did in Atlanta's bad games (28.5%). Meanwhile, Taylor Gabriel saw a significant decline (from 36.6% to 7.7%), as did Mohamed Sanu (from 6.7% to -3.2%). Further, while Jones had exactly 25 percent of Atlanta's targets overall this year, that rate climbed to 36 percent in Atlanta's bad games. There's no player with a corresponding drop in targets -- everyone else was basically just targeted the same or slightly less -- but Atlanta played its worst football this year when they over-relied on Julio Jones and ignored their other weapons. Bill Belichick has always excelled at neutralizing his opponents' best players, and on the surface "make Julio Jones beat you" doesn't sound like a way to make a living. But a one-dimensional Falcons attack is less dangerous than one that can get the ball to a variety of targets at will.

There's one other surprise in Atlanta's individual receiving DVOAs: both Falcons running backs were actually more effective in Atlanta's worst games. Devonta Freeman's receiving DVOA climbed from 24.5% overall to 38.0% when Atlanta struggled, while Tevin Coleman's jumped from a league-best 48.5% overall to 50.7%. This again suggests that the key to beating Atlanta is eliminating Taylor and Sanu from the game plan. You actually want to funnel deep passes to Jones, while allowing Freeman and Coleman to get their short catches and do your best to limit the damage from those plays. Admittedly, a lot of this sounds counter-intuitive, but when you're talking about a great offense like Atlanta's, the best you can realistically hope for is to keep their scoring down to about a league-average level, and hope your own offense can do better than that.

 
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Very interesting stuff. The problem is all the games mentioned happened before December and it's hard to make judgements on games before that. Think about it. People made judgements about the Pats based on the Houston game that happened a week ago., How many of them turned out to be valid on Sunday? ;)

However there was one item that I think bears thinking about. And that was the idea of shutting down everyone and "make Julio Jone beat you." By saying that he noted that making the Falcons one dimensional harms their offense.

One of the mistakes some people have is the concept that keeping AB controlled is the same as keeping Jones under control. That's not even close to the truth. They are completely different kinds of players, and only their production is similar.

The best discription I've heard of Jones is Terrell Owens without the attitude problem. Jones is really the perfect combination of size, speed and hand, whose only criticism has been that he occasionally can disappear in game. But it hasn't been one THIS season, and I doubt it will be this game.

I wonder if you CAN shut him down since like Dez Bryant he's a good chance to come down with the ball even if he is is doubled and "essentially" covered. So why not concede Jones his 150+ yds and 2 TDs and shut down everyone else. Saunu has been getting a lot of pub this season, but isn't he really just JoJo LaFell on a more high powered offense. What if you doubled HIM and shut him down some times and put Malcom to do the best he can on Jones and concede he's going to be beat now and then. It can also be effective if you make it look like Jones is getting single coverage an then have Ryan throw into double coverage.

Certainly not the only way to to do it, but one worth thinking about.
 
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I agree with some of the commenters that giving Julio a looser leash to focus on Sanu etc is not smart.

I think how they should have explained their theory is that your #2 and 3 cbs have to be better than their 2/3 wrs. It doesn't matter so much who covers Julio, cause he is better than everybody (at least some of the time).

So this may be a case where butler DOESNT get Julio. You double (or one with shaded safety-McC help) Julio with two lesser dbs, and put butler /Ryan on the other two.
 
I agree with some of the commenters that giving Julio a looser leash to focus on Sanu etc is not smart.

I think how they should have explained their theory is that your #2 and 3 cbs have to be better than their 2/3 wrs. It doesn't matter so much who covers Julio, cause he is better than everybody (at least some of the time).

So this may be a case where butler DOESNT get Julio. You double (or one with shaded safety-McC help) Julio with two lesser dbs, and put butler /Ryan on the other two.

If you go with this approach, then it makes sense to place Eric Rowe on Julio Jones with safety help, given the height similarity and the fact that he isn't quite as effective as a DB as Butler or Ryan.
 
If you go with this approach, then it makes sense to place Eric Rowe on Julio Jones with safety help, given the height similarity and the fact that he isn't quite as effective as a DB as Butler or Ryan.
That works for me.
 
So this may be a case where butler DOESNT get Julio. You double (or one with shaded safety-McC help) Julio with two lesser dbs, and put butler /Ryan on the other two.

Didn't BB mention this very thing in an interview or p/c this year?
 
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