2011 LB's Compared To Spikes & Cunningham

[mgteich]

Last year we drafted Cunningham and Spikes between pick 50 and pick 65. We seem to like the value we got there.

Many think that Belichick will draft another linebacker. How do you think that this year's 2nd round pickings compare to last year? How do these guys project, compared to Cunnngham and Spikes?

Wilson, Houston, Reed, Sheard, B. Carter, Bailey

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What Wilson are you talking about in the second round as a NE 3-4 LB?

-- Houston on my TV in a 3-4 was a will-o-wist to Cunningham on my TV in a NE 3-4.
-- D'Aundre or Brooks? I assume you mean Brooks. He looks like someone who might be limited to ROLB in a Rosevelt Colvin way. Speed off the edge to create opportunities for the other rushers.
-- Sheard, if he can reliably learn to play backwards when needed, looks like a nice complement to Cunningham.
-- Carter is a 4-3 OLB who relied heavily on his athleticism, no comparison to Spikes, different species.
-- Baily is an enigma. BB seems to have an idea where he might fit, but I'm not smart enough to see where his gifts translate from my TV watching him at Miami to my TV playing for NE.

 

[bucky]

Here's the problem/question I have. If you spend a high draft pick on a DE conversion guy like Kerrigan or Houston, what does that do for your team? I would be very concerned with 2 starting OLBs who are as bad at coverage as Cunningham. And you're not going to rush 5 people on every play. And what if the 2 are in the game together with Spikes? Yikes!

Unless Cunningham gets a lot better in coverage quickly, I think we're looking 2 options here:

1) Upgrade Cunningham - I think there are guys in this class who are better pass rushers than Cunningham, but I'm not sure they can play standing up. So it's a risk to spend a high draft pick on them and somewhat redundant. On the other hand, they should at least be able to improve the team on 3rd down. I think we all know who these players are. It's just a question of which ones can play in a 34 and this has been discussed plenty in other threads.

2) Allow Cunningham to develop and pick up a complimentary player who is an all-around LB. Or in other words, upgrade Ninkovich. This is probably easier to do via FA and this draft has very few LBs who fit the 34 OLB size standard. But here are the 3 guys I think are worth considering:

Akeem Ayers - could be this year's Cunningham in that he plays better than his timed 40. On the other hand, he's not as tall as originally advertised.

Martez Wilson - lacks instincts as a ILB, but that would be less of an issue at OLB. His size and ability to blitz make him a possibility for 34 OLB, but probably not till the 3rd round.

KJ Wright - reminds a bit of Shawn Crable, which is scary. But BB saw enough in Crable to draft him. So Wright would be a prospect worth a look on day 3.

 

[mgteich]

Montez Wilson should be on the board when we draft at 33.

What Wilson are you talking about in the second round as a NE 3-4 LB?

-- Houston on my TV in a 3-4 was a will-o-wist to Cunningham on my TV in a NE 3-4.
-- D'Aundre or Brooks? I assume you mean Brooks. He looks like someone who might be limited to ROLB in a Rosevelt Colvin way. Speed off the edge to create opportunities for the other rushers.
-- Sheard, if he can reliably learn to play backwards when needed, looks like a nice complement to Cunningham.
-- Carter is a 4-3 OLB who relied heavily on his athleticism, no comparison to Spikes, different species.
-- Baily is an enigma. BB seems to have an idea where he might fit, but I'm not smart enough to see where his gifts translate from my TV watching him at Miami to my TV playing for NE.

 

[sg14]

I think the standard NEPatriot algorithim for DL/LB is off the table this year. There is only one standard, knock the opposing QB on his tea kettle.
Size/ height shape doesn't matter.
Production does.

TB gets beaten up, and our guys let opposing QBs have a cup of coffee while deciding which WR they want to throw to.
Our defense can not get off the field, practiacally the worst in the league.

I think BB gets his pass rush and doesn't worry the prototype size.

BB seems to have an idea where he might fit, but I'm not smart enough to see where his gifts translate from my TV watching him at Miami to my TV playing for NE.

 

[patchick]

I think the standard NEPatriot algorithim for DL/LB is off the table this year. There is only one standard, knock the opposing QB on his tea kettle.
Size/ height shape doesn't matter.
Production does.

The trick is that college pass-rushing production is a surprisingly lousy predictor of NFL success. If you look at the much-debated 2009 pass rusher class, the most productive players were Larry English and Everette Brown; the least productive was Clay Matthews.

 

[sg14]

Granted it's hard to get the right guy, but that's not the point I was trying to make.

It seems like 90% of the talk on this board is "He is not the right size."

I think this year the 64 million dollar question is , "Does he make our pass rush better?".

And the perfect size will be sacrificed.

The trick is that college pass-rushing production is a surprisingly lousy predictor of NFL success. If you look at the much-debated 2009 pass rusher class, the most productive players were Larry English and Everette Brown; the least productive was Clay Matthews.

 

[patchick]

Granted it's hard to get the right guy, but that's not the point I was trying to make.

It seems like 90% of the talk on this board is "He is not the right size."

I think this year the 64 million dollar question is , "Does he make our pass rush better?".

And the perfect size will be sacrificed.

I hear you...but surely all of the questions about size, vertical jumps, etc. are nothing but attempts to predict future production?

 

[sg14]

I'll answer a question with a question,
Do we pick a 280 lb DE that can get 12 sacks or a 300lber with 4 sacks?

And as I write this realize that we need both a power run stuffer, and a sack machine. ((Have been thinking pass rush, pass rush, for the last month.))

Basically it probably comes down to using 2 guys to replace Seymour.

The pass rush seems to need the priority tho.

By the way waht happened to DL Weston(sp)??

I hear you...but surely all of the questions about size, vertical jumps, etc. are nothing but attempts to predict future production?

 

[Snake Eyes]

I hear you...but surely all of the questions about size, vertical jumps, etc. are nothing but attempts to predict future production?

They're attempts but poor attempts, they might often correlate with stud pass rushers because you can find successes that don't fit the mold and failures that fit it just fine it should really make people question their paradigms, but what fun is that? Saying someone "doesnt fit our scheme" might make others think they actually know what they're talking about and it also makes them part of an elite club, I mean 'player X might be good enough for Team Y but they're lowbrow, they don't have sophisticated scheme like ours'.

I've previously listed criteria that will do a much better job of predicting success rather than going on ad nauseam about "length" but it seems people don't want a theory if it challenges their current beliefs.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Montez Wilson should be on the board when we draft at 33.

Well that shows how clearly I've put him out of my mind. NE worked him out, but I'd be surprised if he carries a second round grade for them.