I am guessing Luck won't play...

A bit outside the lines. But, this game being obviously week 5 (the game Brady would have got back after being suspended) and the fact that it is an exclusive game (being Sunday Night - though I'm surprised it wasn't monday night and on ESPN) really means that the NFL* is really trying to promote this issue.

I mean, if they wanted this black eye to go away, they would have hidden the game inside a couple other premier matchups at the same time. I guess they really only believe the Patriots are the bad guys here and not themselves. It will be interesting to hear what media nugget gets released on Friday to whip NFL fandom into a frenzy. you know it will be heavily anti-Patriot.

It'll be interesting to see how our pass rush will be vs. the Colts. They had Watt under control the whole game. A few big hits on Hasselback will have him wishing that he had retired a long time ago.

rexxar said:

It'll be interesting to see how our pass rush will be vs. the Colts. They had Watt under control the whole game. A few big hits on Hasselback will have him wishing that he had retired a long time ago.

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I think Hasselback benefited from facing two mediocre defensive units in the Jaguars and the Texans.

FWIW, the Patriots offense did not punt, and put up 51 points on a whim agains the same Jaguars defense while Hasselback and the Colts needed the Jaguars kicker to blow TWO game winning FG attempts to eek out the win.

Regarding the comment about the Colts bottling up Justin James Watt...

The Patriots front seven is playing better than the Texans through the first four weeks.

Furthermore, they are deeper than the Texans, are better coached than the Texans, and well the list goes on...

He's going to play, I don't see the line movement meaning much

It opened at -6.5 to -7 most places I've seen. I've never seen it a -5

And I see it at -9.5 right now

Oswlek said:

Are you saying that Vegas has inside info? I don't think that's necessary, the adjusted performance + questions of Luck's health + heavy betting on NE could pretty easily explain the swing.

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I also don't think the QB matters in this spread very much.

The Colts could have ************ at QB, and the Patriots would still be giving 9+.

TommyD4207 said:

I also don't think the QB matters in this spread very much.

The Colts could have ************ at QB, and the Patriots would still be giving 9+.

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If JC was their QB, I'd have to take the points if I was a bettor. Wouldn't want to have to explain otherwise to St. Peter. LOL

Even with Luck, I'm not totally convinced that the Colts are way better than the Jaguars. They're better, but I think the 3 games that Luck did play were bad enough that they have to be discounted pretty heavily. Add in the unique circumstance of how this matchup went the last four times they played it (in just the past 3 years), and I think it's appropriate for the Pats to be giving double-digit points to the Colts no matter who their QB is and where they're playing.

reflexblue said:

I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't play hes been terrible against the pats, but i certainly hope he does.

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Interestingly, the Dolts have had better success with their backup. And they know it. I can't understand why the Dolts aren't playing to lose (i.e. for that #1 pick), again? Perhaps, that's only something they believe they can get away with once? Imagine...playing a whole season to lose on purpose. Then they want to portray themselves as winners (e.g. AFC Finalist banner). And when they draw their fans into this debacle, they are tainted, as well. No wonder they are so desperate to point the proverbial finger at others. And by doing it to the Patriots, they hope to be viewed as winners by associations...as though 1 game/point/play separates them. Honestly, I have never seen anything this blatant- that covers such a span of time -in sports.

The Dolts might want to keep the boy out. Why throw him into the lion's den? He may be scarred for life and never recover..

I was surprise that the texans couldn't get a pass rush. We need to get one and hit luck often

7.5/10 this is easy money, Pats by at least 25. Bostonians can make a lot of money on the game Sunday night

FanSince81 said:

The Dolts might want to keep the boy out. Why throw him into the lion's den? He may be scarred for life and never recover..

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i think after losing to the pats in every game hes played against them (most by blowout) i think he is scarred for life. BB did a similar thing to peyton manning early on to leave an indelible impression.

The line moved from 10 to 7.5.

hasselback has his strengths. Throws quickly and probably can read coverages better than luck and doesnt have a favorite receiver like luck has with hilton.

rexxar said:

It'll be interesting to see how our pass rush will be vs. the Colts. They had Watt under control the whole game. A few big hits on Hasselback will have him wishing that he had retired a long time ago.

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Watt was getting double and triple-teamed. I am sure that there were no holding calls is thanks to the league emphasis on "integrity".

TBR said:

He's going to play, I don't see the line movement meaning much

It opened at -6.5 to -7 most places I've seen. I've never seen it a -5

And I see it at -9.5 right now

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An interesting perspective that is possible and quite plausible. Who has more to lose than (Pats) fans? Why, that would be those who place wagers on the game(s)!

In addition, not playing a hurt Luck, would hand the cheaters another excuse; an out card. So, now, they have nothing to lose in that respect.

sevengables_2207 said:

The Patriots front seven is playing better than the Texans through the first four weeks.

Furthermore, they are deeper than the Texans, are better coached than the Texans, and well the list goes on...

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Even then they held them to 3 for 11 on 3rd down and 320 yards (213 yards passing)

If Luck returns, Patriots can:
- generate pressure via the blitz
- stay in nickel generate pressure
- stay in base and generate pressure

Pats are ranked 5th in creating pressures and first in sacks created.

Interesting map and breakdown of the Pats defensive personnel
Real Football Network