Pat McAfee discusses, in detail, the story / logic behind the dumbest play in NFL history

[Patstastic]

Obviously the weight of the plays are different, since one decided a Super Bowl. Did anyone really think otherwise?

The detail you’re missing is the Seahawks ran a standard high-percentage pick play that was a one of several appropriate calls in that scenario. The odds of an interception there are minuscule, probably even less than the odds of a fumble. It was the only INT thrown on the one-yard line in the NFL during the 2014 season. There was nothing wrong with the play call, especially considering the timeouts/time remaining factor. Lynch also did not score a goal line TD that entire season.

The Colts play was off the charts stupid. Not only was it asanine to have one blocker for three rushers, they also didn’t go out of shotgun. Oh, and it was a penalty for illegal formation which any pee wee coach would understand as the most basic concept in football, which is needing to have five OL on the line of scrimmage. I believe it was the worst play of all-time. Others have been failures due to execution; this was like a five year old playing around with magnets to randomly build a pretend formation, and an entire coaching staff failing to recognize the epic fail.

If we are just looking at the plays itself, and not just the circumstances, I agree that the Dolts play was the dumbest. Apparently someone snapped the ball when they shouldn't have.

The play call itself (With Seattle) was bizarre in the sense Lynch had been killing the Pats on the ground all game.

 

[Patjew]

Pat is great. I miss him on BSS.

 

[mosslost]

I still believe they meant to do it!

They meant to snap it if the Pats were subbing, which would have got them a first down on 12 man on the field penalty.

The center was not supposed to snap it if the Pats covered it correctly without subbing which they did.

 

[maust]

If we are just looking at the plays itself, and not just the circumstances, I agree that the Dolts play was the dumbest. Apparently someone snapped the ball when they shouldn't have.

The play call itself (With Seattle) was bizarre in the sense Lynch had been killing the Pats on the ground all game.

Lynch had already failed on 2 previous short yardage attempts against NE, converting only one on the day. The down/distance/clock/TO situation dictated what was a very sensible play call when it was made, it was the result that released the hounds not the call itself. Sometimes the other guy gets it right, most of us call that football. How long have you been following the game, maybe 2 years?

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

They're going goal line... they're going goal line.

Running the ball into the 8 most immovable lard butts available was not something that Pete Carroll wanted to try, and every coach that I have heard talk about the play agrees with him.

 

[patfanken]

If we are just looking at the plays itself, and not just the circumstances, I agree that the Dolts play was the dumbest. Apparently someone snapped the ball when they shouldn't have.

The play call itself (With Seattle) was bizarre in the sense Lynch had been killing the Pats on the ground all game.

Not to repeat what Ice already told you, it was FAR from the worst play. In fact the play made a lot of sense.

1. IIRC, the odds of a pick on that play was less than 3.4% which was actually 1% lower than the possibility of a fumble. But either way, there was a minuscule chance of a TO

2. The Pats had a full man advantage on the LOS if the Seahawks had chosen to run the ball, which is tantamount to running into a brick wall. So throwing the ball in that situation MADE sense

3. Lynch had a record of 1-8 in converting in short yardage situations against GL/SY defenses all year. (and as Ice pointed out never on the GL itself)

4. It was 2nd down, which was the perfect down to give that quick pass a shot and still have time to run the ball 2 plays if that was what they wanted to do

5. The Seattle staff HAD all this info, while the boobs in the announcer booth DIDN'T. So THEIR ignorance is what the nation heard and believed rather than truth.

This is very much like what happened in the "Tuck Rule" game where the announcers had no idea about the rule, so they didn't understand why it wasn't a fumble, which led the nation to believe the Raiders got screwed, as opposed to understanding that the rule was called correctly and NO one was screwed. Another myth that continues today.

 

[pheenix11]

To this day I’ve never thought Seattle’s call was that bad. They just got out executed by a well coached team.

Many times there are things that are statistically the best thing to do that don’t work out. Doesn’t mean it was the wrong thing to do, it just means this was one of those times it didn’t work.

Of course in this age of fake news, hot takes and social media buffoonery, everyone piles on at any chance they get.

If Seattle has run it 3 straight times and gotten stuffed the same idiots would be calling for Carroll’s head because he didn’t try throwing it. You can’t win these days.

That was a great game that ended on a spectacular play set up by some great coaching.

 

[Batman]

You can argue it was the wrong pass play but not that a pass play was wrong.
The situation of score, time, down and time outs remaining were all at play.

Down by 4, 2 mins Left, 1 TO remaining goal to go. You can run 4 plays but getting out of bounds isn’t really on the cards and a spike is a wasted play.

First down run full 2mins from snap to next snap. Second play you can pass from 1 yard out with Wilson at QB 96% chance that play isn’t a pick or run the ball and call two plays but be in hurry up mode and less likely to be calm.

Gotally a reasonable call to run a high percentage quick hitting pass play. As Pat Macafee said it didn’t work “because they are the New England PATRIOTS after all” we were prepared for everything.

 

[Biffins]

You can argue it was the wrong pass play but not that a pass play was wrong.
The situation of score, time, down and time outs remaining were all at play.

Down by 4, 2 mins Left, 1 TO remaining goal to go. You can run 4 plays but getting out of bounds isn’t really on the cards and a spike is a wasted play.

First down run full 2mins from snap to next snap. Second play you can pass from 1 yard out with Wilson at QB 96% chance that play isn’t a pick or run the ball and call two plays but be in hurry up mode and less likely to be calm.

Gotally a reasonable call to run a high percentage quick hitting pass play. As Pat Macafee said it didn’t work “because they are the New England PATRIOTS after all” we were prepared for everything.

I agree with this analysis and no doubt Carroll and BB did the same analysis and came to the same conclusion. Except there’s something intuitively wrong not letting your star RB run in from 1 yard line. So Carroll was hoping BB let’s him off the hook from making this rational but emotive decision. And BB specifically said in his interview that he saw confusion on the other sideline (as they were waiting for BB to call timeout) and BB said in his interview “I wasn’t going to let them off the hook”. So if Seahawks wanted to have all 4 plays available to try to get in the endzone, they needed to do a pass play now. And Patricia said “Everyone was confused and I asked Bill ‘everyone is wondering if we’re calling time’ and Bill said ‘I got it’”. And then Bill said “Go goal-line”.

I never get tired of re-watching that whole sequence. BB sacrificed the potential opportunity to get the ball back (if Seahawks scored immediately, we’d only be 3 behind and even a minute is enough to try and get to FG range to tie) to force Carroll to make a decision to either sacrifice having all 4 tries available (if he wanted to just try running in over and over) or throw a pass now.

BB’s calmness in the moment and assessment of the situation is remarkable.

 

[Oswlek]

You can argue it was the wrong pass play but not that a pass play was wrong.

Winner. Seattle blew that game when they mismanaged the TOs (two taken when the clock was already stopped!) and when then they presumed NE would let them off the hook with a TO of their own. Because of this, they neglected to call multiple plays on first down to ensure they would be able to run all four downs.

Once they were in the position those mistakes put them in, it was a certainty that they would pass on one of the plays. Doing otherwise would be an enormous mistake because it would have denied themselves an extra play.

Personally, I would have rolled Wilson out. That way you have pretty much every option available, including a throw away that preserves the run threat for 3rd and 4th down. Otherwise, the call was fine.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Yes, exactly. I've been saying exactly that since the game ended. They should have rolled Wilson out. It would have put enormous stress on the defense since he's a threat to run it in. And since a rollout takes you outside the pocket, it would be trivial to throw it away if there was any remote chance of getting sacked and not have to worry about IG.

 

[1960Pats]

They're going goal line... they're going goal line.

Running the ball into the 8 most immovable lard butts available was not something that Pete Carroll wanted to try, and every coach that I have heard talk about the play agrees with him.

There was also the fact that the Seahawks blew their timeouts. Belichick was right when he spoke to the coaches at the time and said I've got this.

 

[1960Pats]

Not to repeat what Ice already told you, it was FAR from the worst play. In fact the play made a lot of sense.

1. IIRC, the odds of a pick on that play was less than 3.4% which was actually 1% lower than the possibility of a fumble. But either way, there was a minuscule chance of a TO

2. The Pats had a full man advantage on the LOS if the Seahawks had chosen to run the ball, which is tantamount to running into a brick wall. So throwing the ball in that situation MADE sense

3. Lynch had a record of 1-8 in converting in short yardage situations against GL/SY defenses all year. (and as Ice pointed out never on the GL itself)

4. It was 2nd down, which was the perfect down to give that quick pass a shot and still have time to run the ball 2 plays if that was what they wanted to do

5. The Seattle staff HAD all this info, while the boobs in the announcer booth DIDN'T. So THEIR ignorance is what the nation heard and believed rather than truth.

This is very much like what happened in the "Tuck Rule" game where the announcers had no idea about the rule, so they didn't understand why it wasn't a fumble, which led the nation to believe the Raiders got screwed, as opposed to understanding that the rule was called correctly and NO one was screwed. Another myth that continues today.

Number 5 shows the impact that the mediots have on some people. The fact that Jim Nantz (the original Tuckhead) and Cris Collinsworth have that much sway with public opinion is truly bothersome.

And speaking of the tuck rule, I heard an ex-Raider the other day comparing that play to the way Detroit got jobbed by the refs vs GB a couple of weeks ago. What a joke. For a team with a reputation of toughness the Raiduhs sure do cry a lot.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I agree with this analysis and no doubt Carroll and BB did the same analysis and came to the same conclusion. Except there’s something intuitively wrong not letting your star RB run in from 1 yard line. So Carroll was hoping BB let’s him off the hook from making this rational but emotive decision. And BB specifically said in his interview that he saw confusion on the other sideline (as they were waiting for BB to call timeout) and BB said in his interview “I wasn’t going to let them off the hook”. So if Seahawks wanted to have all 4 plays available to try to get in the endzone, they needed to do a pass play now. And Patricia said “Everyone was confused and I asked Bill ‘everyone is wondering if we’re calling time’ and Bill said ‘I got it’”. And then Bill said “Go goal-line”.

I never get tired of re-watching that whole sequence. BB sacrificed the potential opportunity to get the ball back (if Seahawks scored immediately, we’d only be 3 behind and even a minute is enough to try and get to FG range to tie) to force Carroll to make a decision to either sacrifice having all 4 tries available (if he wanted to just try running in over and over) or throw a pass now.

BB’s calmness in the moment and assessment of the situation is remarkable.

You’ll never see balls of steel like this again in the NFL. Belichick went against all probabilities in not calling a timeout, seeing the Seahawks panicking over the fact that he wasn’t. Belichick was willing to sacrifice a chance to tie the game (had Seattle scored, which seemed likely) for a psychological advantage on that play. No other coach has the balls to try that and face the sht storm of criticism that would have ensued had it backfired.

 

[PatsDeb]

But it looked so good on paper! has sunk many a ship...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Winner. Seattle blew that game when they mismanaged the TOs (two taken when the clock was already stopped!) and when then they presumed NE would let them off the hook with a TO of their own. Because of this, they neglected to call multiple plays on first down to ensure they would be able to run all four downs.

Once they were in the position those mistakes put them in, it was a certainty that they would pass on one of the plays. Doing otherwise would be an enormous mistake because it would have denied themselves an extra play.

Personally, I would have rolled Wilson out. That way you have pretty much every option available, including a throw away that preserves the run threat for 3rd and 4th down. Otherwise, the call was fine.

I’ve thought the same thing. Rollout was the perfect play call there.

I am also surprised Wilson never receives any criticism for the INT. It’s a quick release play, but there was no one in Wilson’s face and a lot of QBs would notice when the pick gets blown up at the LOS...Wilson was just throwing blindly to a targeted space. Brady would thrown it away. You see all the time when the Patriots have designed pick plays that’s don’t work, the ball gets thrown at the receivers feet as a clear throwaway. Wilson even asked Carroll “what happened there” on the sidelines. Really dude? Not to put it all on him.,,he was a lot younger and is a great QB, but if you’re assigning blame on the play’s actual execution, Bevell is the scapegoat while Wilson deserves the biggest piece of the pie. Still, 90% of it was just an amazing defensive play by Browner and especially Butler.

 

[slam]

In the Falcons Super Bowl, the play before White scores in OT the Pats throw a fade to Martellus Bennett that the Falcons defender tips away in the end zone.

Imagine the conspiracy theories we'd hear from everyone if that fade gets intercepted and the Falcons go on to win?

There was nothing notable about the Seahawks playcall except that it was intercepted by a one in a thousand play by Butler. Throw an incompletion there and whatever happens next that playcall is never mentioned again.

 

[slam]

I’ve thought the same thing. Rollout was the perfect play call there.

I am also surprised Wilson never receives any criticism for the INT. It’s a quick release play, but there was no one in Wilson’s face and a lot of QBs would notice when the pick gets blown up at the LOS...Wilson was just throwing blindly to a targeted space. Brady would thrown it away. You see all the time when the Patriots have designed pick plays that’s don’t work, the ball gets thrown at the receivers feet as a clear throwaway. Wilson even asked Carroll “what happened there” on the sidelines. Really dude? Not to put it all on him.,,he was a lot younger and is a great QB, but if you’re assigning blame on the play’s actual execution, Bevell is the scapegoat while Wilson deserves the biggest piece of the pie. Still, 90% of it was just an amazing defensive play by Browner and especially Butler.

You cannot get on a QB for throwing this ball. If a QB doesn't have the courage to throw open a receiver with anticipation like this, he can't play in the NFL.

I think if Wilson pulls it down and throws it away, the coaches are asking "why?"

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You cannot get on a QB for throwing this ball. If a QB doesn't have the courage to throw open a receiver with anticipation like this, he can't play in the NFL.

I think if Wilson pulls it down and throws it away, the coaches are asking "why?"

Butler is supposed to be the picked player, not Browner. At the moment of this snapshot, it’s a completely blown up play. We see things quite differently. Look at all the space Wilson has to see the play.

 

[slam]

Butler is supposed to be the picked player, not Browner. At the moment of this snapshot, it’s a completely blown up play. We see things quite differently. Look at all the space Wilson has to see the play.

If you'd shown me the slomo of the play to this point and asked me what the probable result of this play was, I have guessed 30% TD, 20% caught and stopped short (which is bad too for this situation), 49% incomplete, and 1% or less turnover. I want my QB to throw that. A QB who needs to see a receiver open before he'll throw is trending to Luke Falk territory.

If you showed a snapshot of Brady right before he threw the miracle deflected pass to Edelman in the Falcons Super Bowl you'd be horrified. Why's he throwing into tight triple coverage? Or most back shoulder throws. They don't look open but based on design, understanding of defenses, and practice, you assume they'll be completed a high enough percentage of the time. But sometimes the defender makes superlative plays.