Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by thenepatsrule, May 14, 2012.
Seems like good news to me :rocker:
Make your last year as a Pat a Gr8 one Wes!
I prefer my version.
I think most of us already knew this...
Sounded to those who listened in like he might be wavering on his reluctance to sign the tag in time for the June mini camp. He's really never had any leverage. Might as well do what he loves to do and let the rest of the chips fall where they may. He also acknowledged they have a way of doing things and it's worked out for them for a long time now so trying to rattle them will never work to your advantage. Probably the only guy who could rattle them isn't inclined to, either. I really hope they can find a way to work out a reasonable deal, though. I think it would pay dividends down the road not only on the field but in the locker room. When you're drawn to high effort players who are often overachievers it's good business to fairly compensate them for their achievements.
You do know they have until July to reach a long term deal and then beyond that they have from the end of the 2012 regular season until the opening of the 2013 season and into FA to reach some common ground...
Yes, but Wes needs to lower his demands if he wants to get a longer term deal.
Wes is on the wrong side of 30, and his style of play causes his body to absorb a lot of wear and tear. While we all love him, BB isn't sentimental enough to overpay based on past performance; it will be based on what he can give the Pats going forward, and he's reaching his shelf life.
While the Pats can absorb the franchise tag for him this year, next year I don't think they will.
theonly thing he said with any certainty was:
â€śThereâ€™s nine and a half million reasons why I wouldnâ€™t miss any regular season games, so you donâ€™t have to worry about that.â€ť
sound like he selected those words carefully enough to take a good chunk of the sumer off.
as for signing the tender before minicamp....maybe he will, maybe he won't
One of the best players the Patriots have ever had, no wonder some want to get rid of him.
Yeah that makes sense.
u cant call the 31 other teams in the NFL as some. collectively they are MANY
Actually it doesn't but that hasn't stopped the crazies here from calling for them to get rid of him over and over and over and over..........
Well I'm a recent crazy here, so it isn't over and over for me.
I love Wes, but there is only so much money available.
How much of the cap do you think the Pats should give him? Is he worth Megatron or Fitzgerald money.
Poor cap management will kill a team faster than anything.
There's plenty of cap space available to sign him long term, but the team has a ton of leverage here and they're using it to the max. That doesn't mean Wes shouldn't get a bigger/longer contract or that it would hurt the team if he did. It's asinine imo to hope that this resolves itself in a way that sees Wes elsewhere, or to argue that the Pats offer is de facto correct simply because the salary cap exists.
Really? What's he asking for?
Yeah, except we don't know what his demands are and the Pats lone offer has been insulting in relative terms (length and total value) to the most productive WR in the game for the last 3 seasons. If he produces near that level again in 2012 and they haven't made a conserted effort in the interim to meet him half way, it will be their loss...and ours.
They paid 31 year old Randy Moss $9M per for 3 years and that was 4 years ago and he fell off a cliff comparatively speaking thereafter. Last season they signed a 3 year $12M deal for a 33 year old veteran WR coming off a down year who had never taken a snap in this complex a system. This season they signed another 31 year old player to a three year $12M deal who has had 2 productive seasons in just two of his nine seasons and broken a thousand yards just once on FIVE different teams - albeit in a similar system with various QB's. Welker has outperformed his last deal here consistently for 5 seasons, including even one without Brady and two without Moss or much else at the receiver position prior to the young TE's emerging over the course of the last two seasons. And they offer him 2 years and $16M?
As Chad would say, child...please. Welker is the only one who has earned his straight cash, homie.
Poor cap management is paying a player to perform for the tag. Or offering him a 2 year essentially guaranteed deal. No one is expecting them to offer him 5 years at double digits. 4 years at $8M would be reasonable with $20M guaranteed. If he turned that down then he might be the problem. Call me when that happens. Most of that would be taken care of in the two years they already offered. He's been as durable as he's been productive. Anything after that would be gravey with little dead cap consequence and the ever present NFL opportunity to inform him - if he isn't maintaining his present potential HOF pace - he has to take a haircut if he wants to play out the string and simply settle for a shot at the Hall at Gilette...
It's not a matter of 'what have you done for me lately"?, it's 'what will you do for me soon'?
The team has signed a few WRs recently, and therefore have less need of WW than he has of the team.
LOL......who cares when welker shows up as long as its before the season starts?
if he could come back form his injury the way he did, he will be ready to play week 1 whether he shows up June 15th or August 15th
I don't think that's it. They have no real clue how the recent signings will pan out. Never do until the bell rings. They know what welker does when the bell rings. Same thing he's been doing for the last 5 seasons. This is just about leverage and the Patriots have never met any they didn't want to exercise.
Curran pretty much nails it.
Pats' leverage on Welker is his love for game
LOL.........yep, that's how you treat 'em
Wes will get a multi-year deal. He'll get 3 or 4 years, and he'll make somewhere between $8 million and $10 million per season. The deal would have been easier to do if the Patriots hadn't decided to sit on their hands while several other other top receivers got big money in their contracts. Unfortunately, the Patriots tend to be penny wise and pound foolish with their top players.
BOO YAH!!! :rocker:
Let me add this:
1 ~ Wes Welker is the best Slot End in the history of the Galaxy. Agreed?? Agreed!!
2 ~ In Pursuit of Winning Championships, Domination of the Center of the ChessBoard is most vital.
3 ~ As a Slot End ~ the very best of'm!! ~ Wes Welker has been essential to that Pursuit.
4 ~ Yet the phenomenal Ascension of G+H ~ that's "Gronkowski + Hernandez", to those scoring at home!! ~ has ~ astonishing but true ~ rendered Welker's dominance of the Center of the ChessBoard...redundant.
5 ~ This is all the more true because Brother Wes is only a Passing Threat: As he's a mediocre Run Blocker, his presence tips our hand to "Pass", giving the Defense an enormous competitive edge against us in Late Winter.
6 ~ To Get Over The Hump ~ Read: expand our Offense Horizontally, allowing us to Spread The Field against Elite D's like the 2010 Jets and 2011 Giants ~ it's not enough to dominate the Center of the ChessBoard if we completely neglect the Perimeter of the ChessBoard, as we have for 24 months...And the Salary Cap dictates that addressing the Perimeter of the ChessBoard ~ as we MUST, if we're interested in actually WINING Super Bowls ~ requires that we ease off on expenditure ELSEWHERE.
7 ~ Here's the Good News: G+H aren't due for raises until 2014.
8 ~ That means that we've got 24 months ~ 24 SWEET MONTHS ~ in which to roll with Brother Wes ~ Born Patriot and Super Warrior ~ AND G+H...AND Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, and Donte StallWorth, FIELD SPREADERS...IF we so choose...I say we ROLL!!
Well Said!! :rocker:
It's hard to face up to reality, but too much sentimentality can KILL a team.
The Cap is an AWFUL impediment to building a team.
Even Bill The Mad (Genius) gave into sentimentality ~ or Public Pressure ~ when he loaded up on Randy Moss after that WILD 2007 Season, when he PROBABLY could've baked the Skins for a 1st Rounder or TWO!!
I get the feeling Welker will play one more season for the Patriots and then move on to get a better offer.
maybe the Broncos?
My apologies for the Time Warp, Brother Deus!! That's 3x in 2 years but 2x today!!
PF's format is a bit difficult to perfect...and I AM a Perfectionist!!
You're probably right about what'll happen with Welker.
My HOPE is that it's 2 years at Top Dollar...and then either a Divestiture or a Steep Discount!!
A LONG while back, I brought up the notion of Divestiture ~ Selling High with Welker for as much as a #1 or #2...and Brother Mayo'nd I'ave discussed this possibility at Length.
But Wes Welker IS a Died In The Wool Belichickian Patriot...
And I do believe that...Well...I'll post it as its own separate post:
But then I got to thinking about the fact that Brady is poised to have FOUR Go To guys, in 2012, with Welker, Lloyd, Gronkowski, and Hernandez...And it struck me that having FOUR dynamic threats ~ leaving aside the half dozen or so other rich possibilities ~ and having that HORIZONTAL threat, in particular ~ Lloyd ~ for the fist time in two long years...might very well produce a Tipping Point.
What I mean is: retaining the first three and adding the fourth in Lloyd, a fourth who would not only increase their numbers but spread the field ~ by forcing Defenses to respect our Horizontal game in a way they haven't had to since the rise of G+H, because it corresponded with the departure of Moss ~ seems to me has great potential to trigger an Historical Tipping Point: A Tactical Advantage SO acute as to be potentially UNMANAGEABLE...even by the best Defenses in the Game!!
Put another way: The difference between 3 Top Shelf Threats and 4...might be FAR greater than 1.
With G+H's contracts not coming due for two years, it seems to me that we have a rare and scintillating Opportunity, over the next 24 months, to assault the league with a truly unprecedented constellation of weaponry!!
The very retention of Welker, himself, by producing this potentially historical Opportunity...also makes it considerably more likely that we ~ Mad Bill and Mad Tom ~ will continue that focus on the Arial Assault I both fear and loathe.
However, I'm thinking that they're continuing in that direction, regardless: Not quite an abject neglect of the Running Game, but a continuing failure to see its Impact on the Championship Quest ~ and Tom's longevity ~ and a consequent failure to get behind it as they should.
Thinking this, as I do, I figure: If we're gonna be "Pass First"...then I'd just as soon see us hit'm with everything we've got.
And while we've had an effective Horizontal Passing Game, before, on the Flanks, and've had a DEMOLISHING MidField Passing Game, for the last 2 years...We've never had both.
Yes: A truly unprecedented Constellation of Weaponry!!
I'd be VERY happy to see us set ALL those guys against the rest of the league for the next 24 months...and dare the bastards to STOP us!! :rocker:
But, but, but... He doesn't play in the trenches, you can't like him!
At the risk of being tarred and feathered, I'm going to go even further and enter into the realm of blasphemy ... Would the Pats' offense be better off WITHOUT Wes Welker at this point?
Now I fully grant that Welker is the greatest slot receiver of all time, and is in many respects a "perfect" Patriot. But against that consider the following:
- As Grid acknowledges, Welker's strength is to a large extent redundant with the strength of Gronk and Hernandez in the middle of the field.
- To get over the hump requires expanding our defense horizontally and vertically, which means taking some of the focus AWAY from the center of the field.
- There is no way to accomplish this without reducing Welker's role. He was targeted 172 times out of 611 pass attempts in 2011, or over 28% of the time. That's got to change.
- It makes no sense to pay $9.5M to a 31 year old slot receiver whose role is going to be reduced, no matter how great he is or how much he has contributed over the past 5 years. And paying him for a long term deal may get in the way of signing Gronk and/or Hernandez long term.
Or, to put it differently, my goals for the Pats' offense are:
1. The offense needs to become more diversified.
2. The offense needs more run/pass balance, and needs to integrate the RBs more into the passing attack.
3. The offense needs to spread out the passing game more both horizontally and vertically in order to make it harder for defenses to take away the middle of the field.
4. The offense needs to continue to be built around the TEs. They are the "compound multipliers" which make the offense so difficult for opposing defenses to scheme against.
I see no way to achieve these 4 goals that does not involve reducing the degree to which the slot receiver is an integral part of the offense. If Welker is going to be targeted 28% of the time and account for almost 30% of the receiving yards and over 23% of the receiving TDs, then it will be impossible to achieve all 4 of those goals. Something has to give. And for me, it's the role of the slot receiver. And if that decreases, then there is no reason to spend $10M/year on a 31 year old slot receiver.
We saw with the Randy Moss trade that the offense actually got BETTER by dumping one of the greatest receivers of all time, because it allowed BB to channel the offense through the TEs. Now we're at the point where Welker plus Gronk/Hernandez is causing the offense to become too focused in the middle of the field.
Continuing my blasphemous argument, reducing the role of the slot receiver is necessary IMHO in order to diversify and improve the overall offense. So we are looking at a scenario in which we drastically reduce Welker's workload but drastically increase his compensation. Not a good business move, regardless of his past contributions to the team.
Do I really want to get rid of Welker? Of course not. But (1) Brady focuses on him way too much and needs to spread the ball around more, and (2) his age and cost are reaching the point where they outweigh his value. That's usually the time when the Pats dump a player - the way they did Richard Seymour.
I'd be fine with Welker in a reduced role for an acceptable cost. But I'm not sure how to make that happen. And the Pats have made Welker expendable by getting enough weapons to have an effective "WR by committee" approach. Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth, Ochocinco, Branch, Gonzalez and Edelman are more than capable of giving Brady enough targets and options. Heck, we won't be able to keep them all as it is.
Emotionally, I don't want to see Welker leave. But the Pats never let emotions drive their decision making. I can see them letting Welker sign his tender. If he's willing to accept a 2-3 year deal with a reasonable cap number, fine. Otherwise, IF someone wants to give us a 1st round or high 2nd round pick for him, I could see a scenario where they seriously consider trading him and moving on.
This is a great analysis, and I think it superbly parallels the Pats' thinking vis-a-vis enlarging the offensive field vertically and horizontally.
Furthermore, this analysis is consistent with tagging Welker for one or possibly two years, since the Pats' offense is likely transitioning away from being Welker-centric.
I can't Carbon Date it, because it was back in my SportingNew.com days...
But I expect I was pounding the table for Wes Welker, in the Winter of 2006, before ANYBODY, hereabouts.
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