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Edit: Due to the highly superstitious bunch here, I ask that you not ban my IP address if the Patriots lose.
Actually, I'm just sick of hearing every talking head say that this game won't be easy and it is a "trap game" for the Patriots. I've heard that for three straight weeks, and this week it's hit its climax. Anyway, I believe the Patriots will win this game pretty easily. This is the NFL, so of course nothing should surprise us, but here are the factors that point to an easy victory, which obviously show a 180 view from a lot of pundits on which team plays well against bad competition, and which team plays badly against good competition:
-Pundits keep saying that Cleveland plays really well against elite teams. This isn't true. They point to last week's win against New Orleans, 2009 win against Pittsburgh, and 2008 win against the Giants. Yes, they knocked off three defending champs, but that is a statistical anomaly. In 2008, the Browns were 1-8 against .500+ teams. Last year, they were also 1-8. This year they are 1-4. I'd hardly call a 3-19 record evidence that the Browns play well against the NFL's blayoff-caliber teams. The three wins are being discussed a lot this week, but the 19 losses are being ignored.
-Meanwhile, the Patriots have fared astronomically well against sub-.500 teams under Belichick, which should be a reason why the "trap game" argument should be hot air by now. My research may be off slightly, but just running down the games from profootballreference, I believe the Pats are 53-4 since 2003 against sub-.500 teams (that's the final record, not at the time of the game.) Three of those losses were to Miami, and the other was the infamous opener in 2003 to Buffalo. You could argue that their incredible consistency in dispatching bad teams is actually the reason for their record-setting streaks and winning pct over the last decade, even more so than beating good ones.
-So you can talk about all the matchups and possibilities, but in the end, I see this as an easy call. In 53 of 57 games, the Pats have taken out the garbage successfully, and they haven't lost to a sub-.500 besides Miami since the first game seven years ago. During all of these 50+ games it's the same story every week: watch out for this guy, Pats will be overconfident, the other team will be playing with nothing to lose, the other team is better than we think, etc. etc. Belichick prepares his team for one game at a time, and he loses extremely rarely when he has a big talent advantage.
Prediction: The Patriots offense might continue to struggle again early on, so I don't expect a 2007-esque woodshed game. However, I expect the Patriots to easily cover the 4 point spread. This game will be ugly, as Belichick/Mangini matchups typically are, with neither coach wanting to look bad. The Browns will play conservatively, and so will the Patriots. Patriots 24, Browns 13.
Major Factors:
-Colt McCoy vs. Tom Brady. Do I need to elaborate? We hear about the Patriots struggles against subpar QBs like AJ Feeley and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but can you really name a lot of these guys that BEAT them? I can think of dozens that failed, even if they played better than expected.
-The Browns number one pass catcher is Ben Watson, who probably would not even make the Patriots roster this year. Need I remind you that the Patriots just contained a team with Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Randy Moss and Visanthe Shiancoe.
-The Browns are 4-5 after their bye sine 2001, and they lost 16-0 last year to Baltimore. This is just a non-factor if anyone thinks it's a major advantage.
Actually, I'm just sick of hearing every talking head say that this game won't be easy and it is a "trap game" for the Patriots. I've heard that for three straight weeks, and this week it's hit its climax. Anyway, I believe the Patriots will win this game pretty easily. This is the NFL, so of course nothing should surprise us, but here are the factors that point to an easy victory, which obviously show a 180 view from a lot of pundits on which team plays well against bad competition, and which team plays badly against good competition:
-Pundits keep saying that Cleveland plays really well against elite teams. This isn't true. They point to last week's win against New Orleans, 2009 win against Pittsburgh, and 2008 win against the Giants. Yes, they knocked off three defending champs, but that is a statistical anomaly. In 2008, the Browns were 1-8 against .500+ teams. Last year, they were also 1-8. This year they are 1-4. I'd hardly call a 3-19 record evidence that the Browns play well against the NFL's blayoff-caliber teams. The three wins are being discussed a lot this week, but the 19 losses are being ignored.
-Meanwhile, the Patriots have fared astronomically well against sub-.500 teams under Belichick, which should be a reason why the "trap game" argument should be hot air by now. My research may be off slightly, but just running down the games from profootballreference, I believe the Pats are 53-4 since 2003 against sub-.500 teams (that's the final record, not at the time of the game.) Three of those losses were to Miami, and the other was the infamous opener in 2003 to Buffalo. You could argue that their incredible consistency in dispatching bad teams is actually the reason for their record-setting streaks and winning pct over the last decade, even more so than beating good ones.
-So you can talk about all the matchups and possibilities, but in the end, I see this as an easy call. In 53 of 57 games, the Pats have taken out the garbage successfully, and they haven't lost to a sub-.500 besides Miami since the first game seven years ago. During all of these 50+ games it's the same story every week: watch out for this guy, Pats will be overconfident, the other team will be playing with nothing to lose, the other team is better than we think, etc. etc. Belichick prepares his team for one game at a time, and he loses extremely rarely when he has a big talent advantage.
Prediction: The Patriots offense might continue to struggle again early on, so I don't expect a 2007-esque woodshed game. However, I expect the Patriots to easily cover the 4 point spread. This game will be ugly, as Belichick/Mangini matchups typically are, with neither coach wanting to look bad. The Browns will play conservatively, and so will the Patriots. Patriots 24, Browns 13.
Major Factors:
-Colt McCoy vs. Tom Brady. Do I need to elaborate? We hear about the Patriots struggles against subpar QBs like AJ Feeley and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but can you really name a lot of these guys that BEAT them? I can think of dozens that failed, even if they played better than expected.
-The Browns number one pass catcher is Ben Watson, who probably would not even make the Patriots roster this year. Need I remind you that the Patriots just contained a team with Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Randy Moss and Visanthe Shiancoe.
-The Browns are 4-5 after their bye sine 2001, and they lost 16-0 last year to Baltimore. This is just a non-factor if anyone thinks it's a major advantage.
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