Some Interesting Odds, courtesy of Vegas

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I've always been of the opinion that these advanced football predictor sites mean nothing, and that if you really want the odds, look at what Vegas is posting. They are the ones opening themselves up to million dollar bets, and they know the numbers. I know, I know, many are still under the wrong impression that the public's bias causes major shifts in the percentages, which is not true...it is minor shifts here and there, maybe a couple of percentage points but nowhere near what many think. Anyway, let's not make the thread about this.

Here are some relevant Vegas odds after Week 3.

Important Patriots Odds

To Win AFC 33% (Denver next closest at 13%; Colts at under 10%)

To Win Super Bowl 16% (Green Bay slightly ahead; GB, NE, SEA only teams better than 10%)

AFC East
To Win Division/To Make Playoffs

New England Patriots 82%/92%
Buffalo Bills 9%/47%
New York Jets 4.5%/25%
Miami Dolphins 4.5%/25%

You might be surprised that Vegas is NOT bullish at all on the Jets and gives the Bills almost twice as good a shot to make the playoffs, despite that both teams are 2-1 and have looked fairly solid. My guess is Vegas downgrades the Jets all the way to Dolphins level due to Ryan Fitzpatrick and that they are unlikely to get a lot more +5 turnover games, so much of it has been luck. All in all, Vegas does not see the AFC East as much of a race at all. Just before the season, the Patriots were roughly 60-65%, and now they are 82% to win the division.

By the way, my quick math tells me the probability of at least one of the Bills (47%), Jets (25%), or Dolphins (25%) making the playoffs is roughly 69%. Don't be surprised to see a wild card come out of our division.

The AFC East is also at even odds (50%) to produce the AFC Conference Champion, with a team other than the Patriots coming in at roughly 15% odds.

Around the AFC
To Win Division

Cincinnati 55% (that's high for that division)
AFC South (omitted for not being a real NFL division)
Denver 69% (might as well be 101%. Do you really think any of those pretenders can win?)

Around the NFL
To Make Playoffs

Vegas is bullish on these teams, who have gotten off to unexpected starts in the opposite direction:

Atlanta Falcons 73%
Indianapolis Colts 75%

The Eagles are the only coin flip out there:

Philadelphia Eagles 50%

Vegas does not think it's likely the Ravens will recover and puts the Steelers and Cowboys are similar chances without their starting QBs for awhile. Vegas clearly thinks the Raiders are pretenders. Interesting bet is the NY Giants, who have been long shots in 2007 and 2011, so if you believe in superstitions and that history repeats itself, you can make some money betting on the G-Men. For all our sake, though, let's hope they don't make the playoffs. I am already having bad memories just typing this.

Baltimore Ravens 22%
Dallas Cowboys 34%
NY Giants 22.5%
Oakland Raiders 8%
Pittsburgh Steelers 37.5%

MVP Odds

Don't kill the messenger.

Aaron Rodgers 35%
Tom Brady 30%
No one else is above 5%

Best Team Record

Packers 28%
Patriots 26%
Broncos 14%
Falcons 10%
Cardinals 6%
Bengals 5%
Seahawks 4%

Coach of the Year

Bill Belichick is the leader at roughly 14%, with Mike McCarthy slightly ahead at some books. However, voters almost always go with the guy who turns a team around from a previous bad year. I wouldn't bet on either of them. By the way, is that the same Mike McCarthy who is currently neutered from playcalling because of his incompetence? Yeah, he sounds like he is a better coach than Belichick.

Most Passing Yards

Tom Brady is the favorite at 35%

Most Touchdowns

Gronk is second most likely to lead league in TDs. However, if game losing fumbles and choke jobs count as TDs, Gronk has no chance to catch Charles.

Jamaal Charles 14%
Rob Gronkowski 9%

Rodgers/Brady Super Bowl

Just because it is the "most likely" of all the possible events does not mean it is actually very likely to happen.

10%