PatsBoy12
Pro Bowl Player
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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Forgive me if this has already beeen rehashed in another thread, but I had a question about conference tie breakers. I just realized that with Houston and NE now at 8-3, there could be a potential 3-way tie for 1st if KC drops another one. I think there’s a very good possibility for this:
NE - remaining tough games against Minn and @Pitt, but I can see them winning both.
Houston - no tough games left
KC - tough games against Balt, LAC, and @Seattle. I think KC could lose to Seattle or LAC but probably no more than one more loss.
With each team at 13-3, what’s the tie breaker? Isn’t it winning percentage in games against one another? If so, NE has a big edge for the 1 seed having already beaten KC and Houston. KC and Houston would fight for the 2 seed in which case the conference winning percentage comes to play (since they are both 0-1 against NE and did not play each other). If KC loses to loses to LAC, it would give them 2 conference losses along with Houston. What’s the tie breaker after conference winning percentage?
Potentially, the AFC could shape up as follows:
NE - 1
Houston - 2
KC - 3
Pitt - 4
LAC - 5
Baltimore/Indy - 6
KC hosting a wild card game would be something.
H2H tiebreakers are NOT thrown out in 3 way ties. They apply if one team has beaten the others or one team has lost to the others. If NE, HOU, and KC tie then NE gets the #1 on H2H because NE beat both.
But if it is NE, HOU, and LAC then H2H does *not* apply and right now it’s looking like NE would be #2 on record in common games.
The longshot scenario I mentioned last week where the Pats would not get a bye even if they win out...it still exists. I think I know what it is now. HOU wins out, LAC wins out and NE wins out, KC is #5. With this scenario HOU is actually #1. For LAC to be #2 they need more than one of the awful teams they beat like OAK to win out and for the good teams the Pats beat like MIN, CHI etc to lose a bunch of games to allow LAC to get the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over us. That has to be it.
Very unlikely.
According to the playoff machine, in your scenario of NE, Houston and SD winning out, NE gets the 2 seed.
I was wrong. You are right. I just did the playoff machine and basically we want a three way tie with Houston and KC, but NOT with Houston and the Chargers... so last night we wanted the Steelers to win...H2H tiebreakers are NOT thrown out in 3 way ties. They apply if one team has beaten the others or one team has lost to the others. If NE, HOU, and KC tie then NE gets the #1 on H2H because NE beat both.
But if it is NE, HOU, and LAC then H2H does *not* apply and right now it’s looking like NE would be #2 on record in common games.
I posted about that last week and I believe they are wrong. They give the Pats the common games tiebreaker over LAC and that's not correct. Both teams would be 4-1 against common opponents so strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Unless I'm missing something?
Houston's remaining schedule is both easy and appalling in that I loathe rooting for any of the below.
Indy
@NYJ
@Philly
Jax
I think it's better for pats to be number 2 seed if KC falls to 5 .
In this case Houston 3rd Vs 6th seed , let say baltimore
4th vs 5th .. Steelers Vs Chiefs -
We play either houston or baltimore .. Which is good instead of steelers/chiefs/chargers
If steelers or Chiefs make it out .. We will host AFCCG in Gillete
Things are very fuzzy for the Pats, with games at Miami and at the Steelers nothing is certain.