Pats vs Chiefs opens at -3/3.5 with O/U 58.5

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Early odds: Patriots -3 vs. Chiefs

Things could change between now and then with injuries or perception, but the likely line will be within a field goal. Vegas must see these teams as roughly even with 3 points for the home team. Really looking forward to this one. Outside of HFA, seeding, etc. Pats need to avoid being 3-3 going to Soldier Field to play a surging Bears squad.

Early Week 6 NFL Odds

 

[Soliel]

We’ve got some tough games coming, going to have to keep the same level going as last week.
I think Brady’s going to come out swinging. A good bet is the amount of punts in the game. One or two

 

[tasmlab]

Looks like the hardest game on the schedule IMO.

Funny, if the Chiefs completely destroyed the Pats a week or two ago, it would've been a cherished super bowl tradition.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

We’ve got some tough games coming, going to have to keep the same level going as last week.
I think Brady’s going to come out swinging. A good bet is the amount of punts in the game. One or two

Road games against the Titans and Bears look like far cries from the cakewalks we suspected they might be. On the other hand, home games against the Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Texans (already won) not so daunting. Hopefully that Lions loss was the annual WTF game. Losing another to a bad team would make things a lot tougher. Sweeping the Bills and Jets is critical.

 

[VectorPrime]

Home field counts as 3 points so Vegas basically has this matchup as a toss up.

 

[Racervx54]

We are in deep trouble ..Couldnt. Cover the TE last week Kelsey will eat us alive ...

 

[Soliel]

Road games against the Titans and Bears look like far cries from the cakewalks we suspected they might be. On the other hand, home games against the Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Texans (already won) not so daunting. Hopefully that Lions loss was the annual WTF game. Losing another to a bad team would make things a lot tougher. Sweeping the Bills and Jets is critical.

It’s going to be interesting to see how they respond. This seems like a tougher schedule than normal as many teams have improved by a lot. The jags, Vikings, bears,packers, chiefs are all better now than last year

 

[PatsWSB47]

We are in deep trouble ..Couldnt. Cover the TE last week Kelsey will eat us alive ...

KC's defense can't stop anything.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

We are in deep trouble ..Couldnt. Cover the TE last week Kelsey will eat us alive ...

But we could cover the rb.

 

[Soliel]

We’re not losing to the chiefs guys.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

KC's defense can't stop anything.

They’re 4-0, so they can apparently stop something.

 

[Bonzo]

It's sometimes *when* you play a team: I feel differently about playing them now, in light of the Denver game, then I would have even two weeks earlier.

 

[PatsWSB47]

They’re 4-0, so they can apparently stop something.

Technically yeah, but you know what I mean.

 

[BobDigital]

What's the over in this game? Actually. I don't really care. I'm blind picking the over!

This is really a must win game for the Patriots. If they lose this then they can kiss any hope if the first seed good bye and may cost them a chance at a bye in general.

They already lost the tie breaker to the Jags. We don't want to lose the tie breaker to KC as well. It would be interesting if KC beats the Jags and we beat KC. That could make for an interesting end to the season if all 3 teams finish with the same record.

As of right now i like the Pats in this game. If KC gets absolutely curb stomped by the Jags then I will become worried.

A few keys to this game.

Offense - score points. That's all. We need to score and score often. KC will be hard pressed to stop us on offense in any case but the execution needs to be there. The key will be how we handle 3rd down. For all the crap the KC defense rightfully gets they have done well there. I like our chances to change that. Edelman/White are 2 of the best 3rd down options in the AFC. We need to convert on those downs or we won't be able to keep up.

STs - Hill is dangerous here. The key is don't kick to him. I want every kick to go out the back of the endzone or out of bounds. There is no need to ever give him a chance to make a play.

Defense - I have some ideas here. Denver did well but one thing they did badly is over pursue up field. Mahomes is deadly outside the pocket on the run. Don't let him do it. Keep him in the pocket and collapse it. If you push him outside the pocket you only extend the play honestly. Keep him in there and don't give him open field to escape to.

Our run D has been on point the last few games and that needs to continue. If KC can run and pass well then it will be hard to keep up. If you need to let one of the 3 of Kelce/Hunt/Hill beat you then make it be Kelce. He is the least dangerous of the 3 as far as a big play option vs our team. I would play the 3-2-6 as our standard unless KC adds in extra OL men. It has served us well.

I think we need to have a DB play down on Hunt depending on the formation. I don't trust a LB to take him when he slips out into the flat. As for Hill you need to give up the underneath. No way around it. If they weren't so loaded you could play him differently, but they are. You can't spar the guys to double team him every play so give him a cushion. It takes him out of his comfort zone a bit.

McCourty on Kelce may be a 1 on 1 you have to live with if they plan to use Chung in the box. I actually think Kelce will be a better match up for McCourty than Ebron was. Kelce is a little slower than Ebron but all around better. After last week I think McCourty will prefer the bigger/slower guy. As long as he doesn't allow YAC and can contest every ball that is all you can hope for.

 

[Ring 6]

We are in deep trouble ..Couldnt. Cover the TE last week Kelsey will eat us alive ...

McMurtry likes a post that suggests we are screwed. Jete fan?

 

[Soliel]

No one could say, with a straight face that a tight end is going to do anything. History shows B.B. taking away certain things. They will game plan about Kielce

 

[RobertWeathers]

I see the chicken littles are out.

KC D is awful.

We are at home.

10 days of rest

Pat's 45, Queefs 24

 

[luuked]

I see the chicken littles are out.

KC D is awful.

We are at home.

10 days of rest

Pat's 45, Queefs 24

Agree.

This game will be lost or won by our offense. If we get 1-2 stops out of our D or/and a couple of successful 4 point plays (turning TDs into FGs) we will win. Either way the offense needs to play as efficiently as they did for the majority of the Colts game. Minus the turnovers of course.

I am thinking as 42-31 ...

 

[PP2]

They’re 4-0, so they can apparently stop something.

Or outscore something.... except us.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

frog chowdah mmm...