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Pats roster round by round...

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Seneschal2, Apr 8, 2011.

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  1. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    Last edited: Apr 8, 2011
  2. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

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    Gets even more interesting once you separate original Pats picks (and UDFAs) from those who were originally with other teams.
  3. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Ten #1s and #2s on defensive roster and the results are mediocre. After the draft, that number will likely be 11 or 12. His scheme, his players...can't think of another NFL team that has utilized so many premium assets ....yet they blow on 3rd down and pass pressure.
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Stroud and Warren did not play at all last year, and Brace ended up on IR near year's end.
  5. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    Yeah... or it could be that almost all of those #1s/#2s were first and second year players. It's amazing the defense wasn't any worse for how young they were. It was basically Mayo and Wilfork surrounded by an ass ton of college kids.
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2011
  6. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

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    First round:

    (1) Mayo - fine 3rd-year ILB whose primary job is to tackle RBs coming through the gap that the D-line and Spikes limit them to; severely overworked in 2010 because the D-line (aside from Wilfork) couldn't close gaps against a sleepy Cub Scout.

    (2) McCourty - ROOKIE - pretty much out-performed Revis' rookie season in spite of spending a lot of plays in run-support (see Mayo, above) and dealing with a rib injury during the late going.

    (3) Meriweather - really very good deep-centerfield FS/backstop for McCourty and Arrington, when he sticks to his assignment and doesn't freelance.

    (4) Wilfork - possibly no finer NT in the NFL who's proven he can be pretty decent at 34DE, too - but clearly can't do it alone.

    (5) G. Warren - ageing journeyman 4-3 DT (though a 1st-round pick) playing in a 3-4 for the first time in his career; picked up as a temporary DE reserve and 40-front supplement; valiant effort trying 34DE (when Ty Warren's injury made this necessary), but was quickly moved inside in favor of Wilfork because he just wasn't cutting it.

    Ty Warren - on IR all last season
    Marcus Stroud - not with the team last season

    Second round:

    (1) Ron Brace - 2nd year reserve NT, 40-front DT who played out of position at LDE all season; showing signs of getting better at what he was originally drafted to do, which is clearly NOT playing LDE in a 30-front

    (2) Darius Butler - Bust (crude summarization of his career so far) - at least not much of a factor in the season, he was so rarely seen

    (3) Pat Chung - 2nd year SS; playing over injuries, he performed at least as well as a healthy Brandon McGowan did in 2009; spent an extraordinary amount of time playing as a nickel-back over Wilhite, NOT because his coverage skils are so grand, but because his run-support is much, much better (see "Mayo", above)

    (4) Brandon Spikes - ROOKIE - grew quickly into his ILB role, which is to fill one running gap left by the D-line in order to funnel RBs toward Mayo; performed very well in spite of the fact that the D-line was leaving way more than just the one running lane; even appeared to be catching on a bit to coverage responsibilities before getting suspended the last four regular season games

    5) Jermaine Cunningham - ROOKIE - grew quickly into a solid edge-setter (his first task to learn playing OLB for BB) and kept most RB's funneled back toward the D-line (which is actually sorta unfortunate, now that I think about it); applied pass-rush pressure that often helped other guys (Ninkovich and Moore said as much) to "get home", even if he didn't get home himself).

    So, that's five 1sts and five 2nds (one of whom saw limited action) that included:
    - 3 ROOKIES
    - 2 second year players (both playing sorta outside their optimum assignments due to injuries to other players)
    - 1 3rd year player
    - 1 over-the-hill vet "temp" (who was never that good to begin with) playing outside his prior experience
    - 1 VG veteran - playing out of position
    - Meriweather

    Filling in around them and often starting alongside them on a regular basis (some due to injuries) were:

    0 3rd rounders
    2 4th rounder (Sanders, Wilhite)
    1 5th rounder (Ninkovich)
    2 6th rounders (Moore, Pryor)
    4 7th rounders (TBC, Landon Cohen, Brandon Deaderick, Jarrad Page)
    7 UDFAs (Arrington, Sergio Brown, Dane Fletcher, Gary Guyton, Kyle Love, Mike Wright)

    So, if you're NOT a "glass half EMPTY" type of person, you might say that they did pretty okay for a defense that was 61% guys drafted in the 4th or later, 42% either 7th rounders or UDFAs - vs. 38% drafted in the first or second rounds.
  7. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Quick count of probowl (impact) players

    6 of 11 in round one, indicates that talent comes at the top. The rest of the draft is for depth.

    First round (6)
    Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Brandon Meriweather, Marcus Stroud(2003), Vince Wilfork

    Second round (1)
    Alge Crumpler (2003)

    Third round (0)


    Fourth round (1)
    Stephen Gostkowski

    Fifth round (1)
    Dan Koppen

    Sixth round (1)
    Tom Brady

    Seventh round (0)

    Undrafted (1)
    Wes Welker
  8. sg14

    sg14 Rookie

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    Definately makes one think they need "The straw to stir the drink".

    Who will that be???
    Stay tuned,,,

  9. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    It makes me think that more that half the Team is FA, UDFA or Trade. You must keep a proper mix. It shows Mr. Reiss and many that my point all along has been we hide our head in the sand when we sit and realize that the percentage of Draft success is only 17%. Some here do not see the value of having a good front office when it comes to find those non Patriot drafted folks. It's like FA and Trades are a waste of time.Count the acquisitions made over the last ten years and tell me we would have three SB's without them?

    If I go after a FA or Trade he has better than a 70% chance of playing successfully because we can see an NFL resume. Pertty simple. 17% versus 70%. You must have a mix. Building through the Draft is a myth if "only" is included in that statement. It also goes you can't go the opposite way either.

    Reiss proved my point in this post.
    DW Toys
  10. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    What are these numbers based on, out of curiosity? The 70% seems extremely high. I usually go back 3 years for trends, but a lot of advocates of trades point to the Moss/Welker deals, so we'll go back 4 seasons to include that magical 2007 season.

    I counted 44 trades/FA signings during that period. 70% suggests 31 were successful. I only counted 20 players that played a significant number of games. That doesn't even factor in if they were worth what we paid in the trade, like Derrick Burgess. He played, I gave him credit. I've put an asterisk by the guys I think have worked out. I'm sure I've missed a few here or there, but it's clear there are plenty of misses even with trades and FA signings.

    Sure, some of these were try-outs or fliers or gambles. Then again, you're counting 7th-round draft picks the same as 1st-rounders when coming to the 17% number (which I'm curious about as well), so it's only fair to count them all.

    2010
    Marques Murrell
    Alge Crumpler *
    Damione Lewis
    Torry Holt
    Amon Gordon
    Gerard Warren *
    Quinn Ojinnaka *
    Tracy White *
    Jarrad Page *
    Deion Branch *

    2009
    Tully Banta-Cain *
    Brad Listorti
    Fred Taylor
    Chris Baker *
    Greg Lewis
    Nathan Hodel
    Shawn Springs *
    Leigh Bodden *
    Joey Galloway
    Al Johnson
    Damane Duckett
    Brandon McGowan *
    Paris Lenon
    Alex Smith
    Derrick Burgess *
    Michael Matthews
    Prescott Burgess

    2008
    Lewis Sanders
    Fernando Bryant
    Jason Webster
    Tank Williams
    Sam Aiken *
    Victor Hobson
    Marcus Pollard

    2007
    Wes Welker *
    Randy Moss *
    Sammy Morris *
    Kyle Brady *
    Donte Stallworth *
    Kelley Washington *
    Adalius Thomas *
    Tory James
    Eddie Jackson
    Dante Wesley
  11. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Had my coffee so wanted to address the 17% draft success. First, not sure how you came to that number. My guess would be starters = success? And it treats all picks the same, as in a 7th rounder is equal to a 1st.

    Under BB, we've made 101 draft picks. 46 have played significant minutes in at least 1 season. 34 of those were 1st-string players for at least 1 season. 23 started multiple seasons (excluding the 2010 draft, as it's too early), which gives us 26%. This despite only 36 of the 101 picks being in the first 3 rounds, which are higher-quality picks. The majority of the team's picks are mid-to-late rounds, where not much is expected.

    I don't really understand why you count a 1st rounder the same as a 7th rounder, but if you count significant contributions in a season, even if you look at the worst 3-year period of drafts under BB (2006-2008), we still find 6 out of 26 contributors from the draft, still above the 17%.

    So I don't know where that figure comes from. Is it a league-wide number for starters only?
  12. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

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    Not to pile on, but I have to wonder if a guy drafted in the 7th as a part-time situational sub-rusher who ends up playing 50-70 snaps per season, getting 2-4 sacks, and playing on every special teams unit, getting 8-10 ST tackles is considered a "success" or a "failure".
  13. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    In my book, he'd be a success. Anyone who can make a roster and contribute at the highest level is very impressive, especially as a late-round pick who is guaranteed nothing.

    Then again, the pessimist might say big deal, they've seen a 6th-rounder who has become an MVP, Super Bowl winner, record-setting, HOF QB with a supermodel wife...but I'd say that's not typical of later-round picks. :D
  14. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Out of the park home run, 7th rounders have a very low chance of making any impact on a roster.
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