Patriots vs Steelers: Common opponents and results. (Plus a few additional tidbits)

[Tony2046]

I wanted to compare both teams using common opponents and Weighted DVOA stats before the game tomorrow.

Any comments or corrections are appreciated.

The Patriots and the Steelers have both played the following teams this season:

Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Each Other

I created two charts based off of their common played games. One using all the games regardless if they were Home or Away and the other using only the games in which both teams played the opponent at home or away.

All numbers in Blue represent a plus for the Pats. Red represents a minus for the Pats.

This chart represents all games played against all common opponents played at home, away or both. For example: This chart includes games in which Pittsburgh played Baltimore at home and away while the Pats only played Baltimore at home.


(Notice a 10.1 point differential)

This chart only includes games on common fields. For example: Both the Pats and Pittsburgh played Baltimore at home. It would not include Pittsburgh's away game against Baltimore.


(Notice the 15 point point differential)

This should be a good game but one in which the Pats should win.

Side Note: I wish I could add a decibel factor in there because I'm sure Gillette is going to be pumped. FWIW: If I can't hear you from my house you're not loud enough. (I live near Westborough)


TidBits:

Ben Roethlisberger is the worst rated QB left in the playoffs. (Based on regular season)

Brady and Ryan are the first and second best rated QB's left in the playoffs.

Hats off to Ryan. Hell of a year.


Adjusted Defensive statistics. (Weighted DVOA)


New England is the second best rated Overall Weighted Defense left in the playoffs. This ranking compensates for Strength of Schedule (Highlighted in Red). (Weighted DVOA values recent games higher than games at the beginning of the season.) IOW weighted somewhat helps determine the value of the defense after the Collins trade etc..



Adjusted Offensive statistics. (Weighted DVOA)


New England has the highest rated Weighted Offense left in the playoffs.



My prediction:


References:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS
2016 New England Patriots Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com
2016 Pittsburgh Steelers Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[BlueThunder]

Let's hope the next trophy that Brady, BB and Patriots raise after the AFCCG is the Lombardi !

 

[oldrover]

View attachment 15841
(Notice a 10.1 point differential)

View attachment 15842
(Notice the 15 point point differential)

TidBits:

Ben Roethlisberger is the worst rated QB left in the playoffs. (Based on regular season)
View attachment 15844
Brady and Ryan are the first and second best rated QB's left in the playoffs.

Hats off to Ryan. Hell of a year.


Adjusted Defensive statistics. (Weighted DVOA)
View attachment 15846

New England is the second best rated Overall Weighted Defense left in the playoffs. This ranking compensates for Strength of Schedule (Highlighted in Red). (Weighted DVOA values recent games higher than games at the beginning of the season.) IOW weighted somewhat helps determine the value of the defense after the Collins trade etc..



Adjusted Offensive statistics. (Weighted DVOA)
View attachment 15850

New England has the highest rated Weighted Offense left in the playoffs.



My prediction:
View attachment 15851

References:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS
2016 New England Patriots Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com
2016 Pittsburgh Steelers Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Matt Patricia: "Let me boil it down for you guys...

...the limit of f(x), as x approaches [chance of Steelers win this Sunday], equals [no f*cking way]."

 

[Tony2046]

win

Matt Patricia: "Let me boil it down for you guys...

...the limit of f(x), as x approaches [chance of Steelers win this Sunday], equals [no f*cking way]."

Wow. That's excellent.

 

[oldrover]

Yeah, well, with posts like yours, dude, you are turning into...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks for the work!
Hopefully, the Pats will win the Turnover battle tomorrow.

 

[denverpatsfan]

I still can't believe that Pittsburgh defense is that good. I guess we shall see come Sunday. Game is at home. Is there a drop-off for Pitts defense on the road?

 

[fgssand]

Furthermore...if you take the last 7 winning games each team had to close out the season, you will find the won / loss combined records of each teams came out dead even!!

During that stretch Pats played two teams with winning records (broncos & dolphins) and Steelers only one (giants).

So, the same march of the "tuna cans" was what both teams experienced.

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks for the work!
Hopefully, the Pats will win the Turnover battle tomorrow.

Actually I think they can win it -1 in the TO category. But I doubt that will be the case.

 

[Tony2046]

Furthermore...if you take the last 7 winning games each team had to close out the season, you will find the won / loss combined records of each teams came out dead even!!

During that stretch Pats played two teams with winning records (broncos & dolphins) and Steelers only one (giants).

So, the same march of the "tuna cans" was what both teams experienced.

The "Strength of Schedule" has been an overly abused stat by the mediots over the last week. Obviously it's useful for clickbait but they fail to mention it in either a pure raw data or adjusted value perspective which would devalue their "Pats are untested" argument.

Using Raw data stats the Pats are the number 1 defense in the league. Adjusted for SOS they are the 11th best defense in the league.

 

[BlueThunder]

I hope it means Pats D stops Steelers cold in their tracks

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Actually I think they can win it -1 in the TO category. But I doubt that will be the case.

a lot smaller margin for error than last week, though...