NFL Playoffs 2023

[Pape]

There are some reports out there about the price of tix for the lions division championship game... tix are selling for about $700 each... Pricey...

 

[Uptown]

 

[BobDigital]

So my prediction is already out the window, as expected. I picked Lions, Eagles, Cowboys Browns Dolphins, and Bills. But many of my overall thoughts were correct.

I said the Eagles were massive frauds and would lose next round. They were perhaps bigger frauds than even I thought. Lions over Rams wasn't a super hot take but I like that I correctly read that close match up. Went about how I thought it would overall. Cowboys I believed still had some choker in their DNA but I firmly believed they were due not to choke and play up to their level for at least a few games. They will next year I think. Bills rolled as we mostly thought. I believed KC to be weaker than most fans and pick them as my surprise upset. Wrong surprise upset but after watching the game I am only more sure of their weakness compared to years past. I had Browns/Houston as a toss up and sided with the Browns. Houston seems better than I thought. But not enough to justify the smacking the Browns let them have. In retrospect I should have realized Houston had a slight edge.

As for the the teams I picked against who won. Bucs are what I thought they were outside of their QB. Mayfield really is playing well. The Bucs have a really good 52/53. We've seen in the past a low level QB get on a run in the playoffs with a strong cast before. It usually ends well but probably not this year for them even if Mayfield stays hot. SF just looks so good all around.

Houston looks very solid but are still firmly in that 2nd tier of playoff teams. But the Ravens look right for and upset imo.

Some are getting back on the KC bus. I am not. Dolphins played like crap even considering how depleted they were and the field conditions. KC should have won by more. Also their D wasn't as impressive as the score suggest. They have a good D but it has the feel of a D that waits for you to do somethong stupid instead of dictating. Especially when Jones doesnt get pressure.

Overall for this coming week I expect a reversal of last. Last week was an upset week. This week the favorites mostly roll. Bills, SF, Lions and my single upset. Ravens. Don't trust Lamar and as good as they look their lack of talent on O is concerning.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Santi]

49ers, Buccs to upset the Lions, Ravens, Chiefs

Just can’t see the Texans holding the Ravens down. The ravens will have to beat themselves to lose, which is possible given their history.

Want the bills to win but got this ****ty feeling the chiefs will pull through, probably with a bad ref call.

 

[venecol]

Just looking at the spreads:

Ravens -9 over Texans:
Texans don't look or play like a team that'll lose by more than 1 score. I'm taking Texans plus the points.

49ers -9.5 over Packers
Packers can exploit the 9ers secondary, which should keep it close. I'm taking Packers plus the points.

Lions -6.5 over Bucs
DET spent a lot of emotional energy in last week's 1st playoff win in forever, between the Stafford vs Goff narrative, and the magnitude of the game. They're due for a letdown and potential upset. It'll depend on which Baker shows up. I'm taking the Bucs plus the points.

Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
I can see Bills at home beating KC by 3. Only concern is all the injuries at LB and CB for the Bills. Maybe it's just what I really want influencing this decision. I'll stay away from this one.

 

[BobDigital]

I didn't do this last week cause 6 games was too many. With only 4 games and 8 teams i feel more comfortable trying to talk about all the games. But I'll do only 1 break down per post.

Texans @ Ravens -9 - This is a hot take. My upset pick. Let me get into why.

First off I want to talk about the Texans defense. It isn't ranked highly and on paper it is not overly impressive. But it is underrated. When you look at what they've been able to do the second half of the year it is pretty damn impressive. First off their first 2 games of the year are 2 of their worst defensive games this year when they surrendered 25 and 31 points. Besides that they've had that Bucs game that turned into a shoot out but since week 3 they've been really solid when you look past the surface. They've only surrendered more than 24 (and the rest were under 21 points) points 4 times. One was the Bucs game, which just kind of turned into a weird one and was its own thing. Games like that happen. One is the Bengals where they gave up 27 which included a 4 yard TD drive. The other was when they gave up 30 to the Jets, but that included 3 FGs late that were due to turning it over on downs 3 times while they were down late (all those drives actually resulted in negative yards before all those FGs were made). And the last time was to the Browns when their own offense was completely ineffectual with a back up QB who gave up several short fields and left his D on the field all game. They faced the Browns again and with giving their D breathers and not short fields they surrendered 14.

This isn't me trying to excuse all these point totals, but I'm attempting to show their D might be better than what we think. Even if they are only a bit better (maybe instead of the 11th best they are the 9th or 8th) that might help tip things. But the key point on their D is their run defense, which is among the best in the league. The last time they played the Ravens they kept their running game mostly in check and if they had a better offense would have kept the game within reach.

When it comes to their offense, they seem mediocre but they may well be clicking at the right time. CJ has had ups and downs this year but over the last 3 weeks in particular CJ is showing good consistency. They don't always try to run it up and sometimes just like to play game manager and lean on their D with a lead, but overall the offense is doing well right now. They seem capable of scoring at least some points. More than the 9 in week 1 during CJ's rookie game. This isn't to say i think they have an offense that is close to the top ones, but they are right now playing better than their ranking of merely 13 suggest they would. Maybe even bottom tier top 10. Perhaps they will be just good enough to score that one extra FG that might tip it for them.

Baltimore on the other hand seems to be so great on the score board, but on paper im not as convinced. We remember the recent wins over SF and the smacking of Miami. But i'm not convinced at all their offense is as good as they look on the score board recently. When you look at their personnel, they just aren't that scary. Andrews may play but he'll be gimpy. Flowers their best WR is only pretty good. Beckham occasionally shows flashes but he's very inconsistent. it feels like more of the same old 'rely too much on Lamar' thing again. And when they can't get the run going they have issues, and they will likely have issues running again vs Houston, and that will hurt their offense.

Their D is legit, but Houston is among the best at not turning it over. Which tends to be how that D punishes you and gets up on you as well as slows you down. They are tied for most takeaways so this will be strength vs strength. They best team at not giving it away vs the best team at taking it away. And most turnovers ain't truly forced so I think this favors the Texans. Baltimore will have to do something they don't like to very possibly, and that's win without winning the turnover battle or going even. This can be a problem with teams that win with turnover give/take. When those dry up you have to win in other ways.

I see this game going a lot like the season opener. The Texans will slow down the run and make the Ravens earn all their points. The only difference is this time the Texans offense will be able to get more than the occasional FG on the board and keep the game tight. I see this being a close game into the 4th with the following questions, whose more likely to make a mistake and whose more likely to make a play. The answer for QB is both Lamar. But at the skill position I think if anyone puts the game on his back from either team in money time it's Nico Collins of the Texans. And while part of me believes in the 'due' theory for Baltimore, I am simply not a believer in Lamar in the playoffs yet. he's 0-4 as performances go. Even when he's won he hasn't looked good. I am betting he underwhelms again and it is just enough for the Texans to slip by with the Ravens being hurt on offense. 17-20 Texans in a nail biter.

I'll write up another game tomorrow.

 

[captain stone]

 

[captain stone]

I don't know about the Speed part... Everything else? Sure looks like it.

 

[captain stone]

Playoff Lenny released from Bills practice squad.

Bills release Leonard Fournette from practice squad

Playoff Lenny won't get a chance to assist another postseason win over the Chiefs.

www.nbcsports.com

That's bad karma man... Pats know all about that...

 

[Uptown]

I don't know about the Speed part... Everything else? Sure looks like it.

He had almost 1,500 yards in the regular season & another 181 yards in the playoff game. Whatever his speed is, I’ll take it lol.

 

[BobDigital]

Packers @ SF - 9 - TLDR? SF wins. Let me tell you why if you wish for some details though.

First the Packers. Their offense is one of the weirdest ones I've seen. Outside of their rookie QB who recently has been very good (and overall very good the entire year) they have no stars save maybe Aaron Jones. They do have a lot of 2nd tier players though. Very much a committee offense that is more the sum of its parts. But the lack of a true star or even true #1 play maker to lean on is a concern. While their offense isn't highly ranked they've had a fairly strong 2nd half the year and are on the uptick compared to their year overall rank of 12.

Their worse performances of the second half were Tampa which has a good D and it was a bit of a low possession game in which they only scored 20. And Chicago which was an incredibly low possession game and they did much better than their 17 points would suggest. In fact i would classify it as a good offensive showing. But while this team may be better than they look on that side of their ball if anything their D is worse than it looks. Their 2 best games of the second half came in the very low Chicago possession game and a game against the Vikings where they gave up 10 to a 3rd and 4th string QB. They did hold the Lions to 22 when they kept fumbling the ball and couldn't get out of their own way and they held the Chiefs middling offense to 19. But any suggestion this slightly better than average D is anything close to as good as they may look in their last 2 regular season games and most of the Cowboys game just isn't so. This D lacks talent particularly on the back end outside of Nixon. They have not faced many top offenses. When they played the Lions who weren't fumbling the game away they got scored on. When Dallas got out of their own way they got scored on. SF will score on them too, but will it be enough?

SF is a team i don't need to get too into. We know about Kittle, Deebo Aiyuk and McCaffrey. We know how good their D is with the likes of Fred Warner, Bosa, Hargrave and Ward among others. Their pass and run D are both legit and they get turn overs. In the end, the only question on the team is Purdy. How will the 2nd year QB do? Well if last year was any indication, he'll do his job. I won't call him a great QB as he has the best cast since KC a few years back when they had all those stars and were lighting up the world, but he is a good player and seems to be able to execute and take care of the ball.

Overall it is hard to see how SF loses. I can't find an edge for GB at all. It would need to be just a total let down. I think GB can be somewhat competitive with SF's D. I'd give SF the edge as GB's O is only pretty good even with Love playing some borderline great ball. I don't see a way SF doesn't light that D up unless Purdy self destructs. I see GB putting up a fight, but SF fans can comfortably relax before the 4th quarter even starts. Holding and never letting go of a 2 score lead by sometime in the 3rd at the latest. SF 34-GB 20

 

[captain stone]

Packers @ SF - 9 - TLDR? SF wins. Let me tell you why if you wish for some details though.

First the Packers. Their offense is one of the weirdest ones I've seen. Outside of their rookie QB who recently has been very good (and overall very good the entire year) they have no stars save maybe Aaron Jones. They do have a lot of 2nd tier players though. Very much a committee offense that is more the sum of its parts. But the lack of a true star or even true #1 play maker to lean on is a concern. While their offense isn't highly ranked they've had a fairly strong 2nd half the year and are un the uptick compared to their year overall rank of 12.

Their worse performances of the second half were Tampa which has a good D and it was a bit of a low possession game in which they only scored 20. And Chicago which was an incredibly low possession game and they did much better than their 17 points would suggest. In fact i would classify it as a good offensive showing in the second half. But while this team may be better than they look on that side of their ball if anything their D is worse than it looks. their 2 best games of the second half came in the very low chicago possession game and a game against the Vikings where they gave up 10 to a 3rd and 4th string QB. They did hold the Lions to 22 when they kept fumbling the ball and couldn't get out of their own way and they held the Chiefs middling offense to 19. But any suggestion this slightly better than average D is anything close to as good as they may look in their last 2 regular season games and most of the Cowboys game just isn't so. This D lacks talent particularly on the back end outside of Nixon. They have not faced many top offenses. When they played the Lions who weren't fumbling they game away they got scored on. When Dallas got out of their own way they got scored on. SF will score on them too, but will it be enough?

SF is a team i don't need to get too into. We know about Kittle, Deebo Aiyuk and McCaffrey. We know how good their D is with the likes of Fred Warner, Bosa, Hargrave and Ward among others. Their pass and run D are both legit and they get turn overs. In the end, the only question on the team is Purdy. How will the 2nd year QB do? Well if last year was any indication, he'll do his job. I won't call him a great QB as he has the best cast since KC a few years back when they had all those stars and were lighting up the world, but he is a good player and seems to be able to execute and take care of the ball.

Overall it is hard to see how SF loses. I can't find an edge for GB at all. It would need to be just a total let down. I think GB can be somewhat competitive with SF's D, though I'd give SF the edge as GB's O is only pretty good even with Love playing some borderline great ball. But I don't see a way SF doesn't light that D up unless Purdy self destructs. I see GB putting up a fight, but SF fans can comfortably relax before the 4th quarter even starts. Holding and never letting go of a 2 score lead by sometime in the 3rd at the latest. SF 34-GB 20

Agree that this is the 49ers' - in particular their QB's - game to lose... I like GB's offense, especially their QB and their collection of talented WRs & TEs, though I'm not as confident in their OL, especially the OTs & Center (they totally ****ed-up by allowing Creed Humphrey to be chosen by the filthy ****ing Queefs))... I like the athleticism & versatility of Zachary Tom though I feel he's somewhat mis-cast as a RT...

Packers' defense is a different story, as you noted... Take the Over if the number's at 44 or lower.