Last ten NFL draft #14 picks- judge for yourself

[mgteich]

This isn't unusual. Picks in the teens are 50/50 deals to be starters, much less to be stars.

What about early 20's.

II think that 11 or 12 is more than a 50-50 starter for 4-5 years, barring injuries.

 

[patfanken]

Chris Lindstrom was an all-pro last year. PFF gave Chris Lindstrom the highest grade of any NFL player last year. Not just of guards, but of all NFL players. That's pretty damn good for the no. 14 pick. I'd be happy with that

and every time I see something good written about Chris Linstrom I want to take some credit since I coached his dad in HS

 

[Ollie]

What about early 20's.

II think that 11 or 12 is more than a 50-50 starter for 4-5 years, barring injuries.

possibly roughly 20% of first rounders never sign a 2nd contract with any team. 50% sign with another team (whether that is them being offered a better deal elsewhere or someone taking a flyer on a first round bust it doesn't say and 30% of first rounder resign with the ream that drafted them.

 

[mgteich]

possibly roughly 20% of first rounders never sign a 2nd contract with any team. 50% sign with another team (whether that is them being offered a better deal elsewhere or someone taking a flyer on a first round bust it doesn't say and 30% of first rounder resign with the ream that drafted them.

I suggest that drafting at 11 or 12 is better than 50% to get a starter and you give me stats about the whole first round.

I will stipulate that drafting in the 2nd half of the first round is a crapshoot, similar to drafting in the second round, but with the advantage of having rights to the player for an extra year.
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[Ollie]

I suggest that drafting at 11 or 12 is better than 50% to get a starter and you give me stats about the whole first round.

I will stipulate that drafting in the 2nd half of the first round is a crapshoot, similar to drafting in the second round, but with the advantage of having rights to the player for an extra year.
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Thats a fair point. Its hard to find information that breaks it down by pick. This site is the best i've found although it's only over a short period so hard to judge and seems to show it's even more complex than that and there is a drop off in terms of draft success even after the first 5 picks with it also being very different depending on position with some positions having a higher bust rate than others. Interestingly there is a little increase in draft success towards the end of the first rd possibly due to the fact that these players are going into more settled situations.

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics | Page 2

How analytics can help lead to better drafting - especially when there is so much risk in the first round.

theriotreport.com

 

[DarrylS]

Oh my goodness does this mean every team in the NFL has hits and misses in the first round and even in the draft??
After listening to Sports Talk radio I was under the impression that your NEP were the only team to have these issues.

 

[RIpats88]

I think pats are going receiver this year. They've worked out all the top prospects and we know the Patriots need a #1.

 

[BTTA]

What about early 20's.

II think that 11 or 12 is more than a 50-50 starter for 4-5 years, barring injuries.

Is there an intern around here somewhere who could do that research?

 

[TheRainMaker]

No more excuses why the Pats can't get an impact player in this draft slot.

Can't use the "they pick late card" this year.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think pats are going receiver this year. They've worked out all the top prospects and we know the Patriots need a #1.

They'd be making the right choice by attempting to get a WR early.

I want to see a WR within the first 3 rounds, but preferably the first two rounds at the very least.

 

[mgteich]

No more excuses why the Pats can't get an impact player in this draft slot.

Can't use the "they pick late card" this year.

There may or may not be an impact (blue chip) player available at 14.

I don't know Groh's board. I certainly could imagine that Groh has no one at 14 rated as an impact or blue chip player.

I could see the following gone
4 QB's
3 OT's
4 front seven players
3 corners

Maybe JXN is an impact player on Groh's board, maybe not. Maybe Wright is an impact player on Groh's board, perhaps not.

It is not at all clear that a blue chip player will be available at 14.
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CONSIDER PICKING AT 21 IN 2022
Groh didn't see anyone worth the pick. He traded down getting
1) a starting OG who will likely be here for the full 5 years of his rookie contract,
2) a backup outside corner who may compete for a starting position this year,
3) a #2 QB who played OK as a rookie when called upon, and
4) a 2023 3rd rounder
=====================
WILL WE DO AS WELL TRADING DOWN IN 2023?
Hopefully, we'll get a blue chipper at 14, but trading down might be the best option again.

 

[NormZauchin]

and every time I see something good written about Chris Linstrom I want to take some credit since I coached his dad in HS

I guess you couldn't get BB to draft him.

 

[1960Pats]

Oh my goodness does this mean every team in the NFL has hits and misses in the first round and even in the draft??
After listening to Sports Talk radio I was under the impression that your NEP were the only team to have these issues.

Yeah, I'm not his biggest supporter but the draft really is a crap shoot and failures are fairly common even for someone as diligent as Bill.

I don't follow college ball so the draft is out of my realm (though I've tried to join in the draft threads and it's impossible without seeing the players) but it's a tall order anyway to look at young men of any age and determine what level they'll rise or lower to. If you looked at the overall number of draft picks that each team retains it's probably close to the same and the quality of each individual is impossible to judge accurately.

This is why I feel that a team is better off retaining the players that they know are productive rather than gamble on draft picks, even if it costs A Few Dollars More.

 

[patfanken]

I guess you couldn't get BB to draft him.

IIRC he went far too early for us to draft and I think we still had Thuney

 

[PatsFanInVa]

the larger implication is that we all like to walk around thinking we're encyclopedias but we're not. The league is full of JAGs, to us, in name recognition terms. It's the other half of the shut-up sandwich that is the draft. The first piece of bread is our ignorance of what a good pick is... usually, dare I say it, fairly JAGgy. The second half is what a crapshoot it is to actually land the hoped-for JAG. And between them is whatever we come up with.

Getting ready for another terrible horrible no-good draft

Yet the draft game is critical to long-term success. I'm not calling it unimportant, just inscruteable.