Is it me, or does this Celtics team remind me of the 2001 Patriots?

[Fencer]

Doesn't it have like a 100% chance of that? I hate getting my hopes up about the lottery because they haven't gone too well for the Celtics, but my understanding was the first 3 picks were determined by the lottery, and the rest were slotted in. Since the Nets will finish with the 4th worst record (at worst; possibly the 3rd), even if they don't get lucky and make the top 3 (top 2 being the goal this year, I think) they'll automatically be slotted into #4?

I could be wrong here, as my hoops fandom has declined in recent years...

Assume the Nets have the 4th-worst record.
Assume the Cs don't get any of the top three picks.
Assume somebody who started out at 5th or lower does get a top three pick.
Then the Cs are bumped out of the 4th position.

If the Cs start the lottery in the #4 slot, and it isn't corrupt, then:

• They have reasonable shots at each of the top 3 picks.
• They are absolutely guaranteed to pick no worse than 7th.
• Picking 7th is extremely unlikely.
  
• Picking 6th is fairly unlikely.
• If I recall correctly, 5th is actually more likely than 4th.

 

[Fencer]

I could be wrong too.Just going off what I thought I had read a couple of days ago. Its estimated between #3 was like 26% #4 33.7% and #5 41% or something like that.

Intuitively:

• While the chance of any particular team leapfrogging the Cs for any particular top-3 slot is low ...
• ... the overall probability that at least one team starting at #5 or below will get a top-3 slot is high.

 

[Fencer]

1. Do it honestly. Quite clearly they don't. Cleveland win it 3 years in a row? C'mon!

I think it was 3 out of 4.

Anyhow, it's odd to see the list of teams conspiracy theorists think the league has favored. I think it starts:

• LA Lakers.
• NY Knicks.
• San Antonio.
• Cleveland.

I fail to find a common thread there. Also, I fail to see how turning down the Chris Paul deal the Lakers made fits the pattern.

 

[Froob]

Right. Ainge doesn't have much of a track record in drafting international stashes. But if he hasn't staffed up to scout the world this season, then that is likely to prove a costly management failure.

Pretty sure he has tons of scouts looking at the international guys. Luigi Datome was one guy that comes to mind that he was obsessed with who he ultimately ended up in Detroit and then got traded to Boston.

 

[Fencer]

Pretty sure he has tons of scouts looking at the international guys. Luigi Datome was one guy that comes to mind that he was obsessed with who he ultimately ended up in Detroit and then got traded to Boston.

And he also drafted a Turk. That all gives me hope.

But San Antonio we're not. According to the Sam Hinkie resignation letter, San Antonio has the rights to 13 guys playing overseas, which if true boggles the mind. Of course, that count -- for San Antonio and the Cs alike -- might include as many Americans as foreigners.

 

[aluminum seats]

Assume the Nets have the 4th-worst record.
Assume the Cs don't get any of the top three picks.
Assume somebody who started out at 5th or lower does get a top three pick.
Then the Cs are bumped out of the 4th position.

If the Cs start the lottery in the #4 slot, and it isn't corrupt, then:

• They have reasonable shots at each of the top 3 picks.
• They are absolutely guaranteed to pick no worse than 7th.
• Picking 7th is extremely unlikely.
  
• Picking 6th is fairly unlikely.
• If I recall correctly, 5th is actually more likely than 4th.

Of course. Feel a little stupid for not working that out.

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Froob]

Cs tied for 3rd in lotto now after Suns won last night .

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

I think it was 3 out of 4.

Anyhow, it's odd to see the list of teams conspiracy theorists think the league has favored. I think it starts:

• LA Lakers.
• NY Knicks.
• San Antonio.
• Cleveland.

I fail to find a common thread there. Also, I fail to see how turning down the Chris Paul deal the Lakers made fits the pattern.

Stern nixing the Chris Paul deal was something of a head scratcher. I'd submit that the prospective trade was so ridiculously one sided that it would have made Stern's LA bias too obvious.

Cleveland is the sport's world's favorite hard luck city. What a wonderful narrative it would be if Cleveland's prodigal son (and the NBA's marketing phenomenon) returns and delivers a championship and saves their sh*tty economy at the same time, right?

I've honestly never heard of a pro-San Antonio conspiracy theory. They just seem like a well-coached, smart team (they're like the NBA version of the Patriots).

 

[Fencer]

I've honestly never heard of a pro-San Antonio conspiracy theory.

In this very thread I think there's a post saying a conspiracy deprived the Cs of Duncan.

 

[Fencer]

Cs tied for 3rd in lotto now after Suns won last night .

Unfortunately, that helps Dallas' chances for the 7/8 spots -- but I'll take it anyway.

 

[rochrist]

Cs tied for 3rd in lotto now after Suns won last night .

If they end up tied, effectively it's for third. The teams flip a coin for ONE extra ping pong ball.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

In this very thread I think there's a post saying a conspiracy deprived the Cs of Duncan.

I don't if that was so much a "pro-San Antonio" theory as much as an "anti-Celtics" theory.

 

[raduray]

They have been just fun to watch the last two years.

 

[RobertWeathers]

In this very thread I think there's a post saying a conspiracy deprived the Cs of Duncan.

NBA didn't want Duncan going to Vancouver or Denver. SA showed big time fan support and TV ratings with David Robinson so that was promising to them.

The did not want him going to the C's.

 

[Froob]

NBA didn't want Duncan going to Vancouver or Denver. SA showed big time fan support and TV ratings with David Robinson so that was promising to them.

The did not want him going to the C's.

To be fair, you can make a conspiracy theory for any team that wins it. I wouldn't put it past them to have rigged it (LBJ and Rose going home) though.

 

[Fencer]

NBA didn't want Duncan going to Vancouver or Denver. SA showed big time fan support and TV ratings with David Robinson so that was promising to them.

The did not want him going to the C's.

Why not?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Why not?

Nuggets had ownership/money problems in 1997 and potentially re-located. Stern and his band of marketing hacks did not want Duncan- who they believed was one of the marketable faces of the NBA did not want him being with a team with an unstable ownership group.

Vancouver was OK but ownership was cash poor (Canadian dollar was going in the tank) and I swear the only reason the league approved the franchise was the $125m posting fee it paid Stern. Rumor is that Tim Duncan did not want to play in Canada but I dunna know....

 

[EatSleepWinRepeat]

Yeah, exactly like the 2001 Patriots minus the fact that they won't be winning the championship.

Stay green green teamers

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah, exactly like the 2001 Patriots minus the fact that they won't be winning the championship.

Stay green green teamers

DAAAAAAMN!! You're so edgy.

 

[Fencer]

Nuggets had ownership/money problems in 1997 and potentially re-located. Stern and his band of marketing hacks did not want Duncan- who they believed was one of the marketable faces of the NBA did not want him being with a team with an unstable ownership group.

Vancouver was OK but ownership was cash poor (Canadian dollar was going in the tank) and I swear the only reason the league approved the franchise was the $125m posting fee it paid Stern. Rumor is that Tim Duncan did not want to play in Canada but I dunna know....

My question was meant to be why you think the league didn't want Duncan to go to the Cs.