Interesting WR evaluation from Dan Pompei re: Chris Givens and Stephen Hill

[bucky]

Interesting nugget from Pompei, suggesting that Chris Givens and Stephen Hill might be highly underrated. I totally agree that conventional metrics are almost useless when evaluating WRs, so I'm definitely buying into this.


NFP Sunday Blitz | National Football Post

More of the new school scouts are using numbers as a way of complementing what they see on tape to evaluate prospects. Statistics have more value for players at some positions (quarterbacks, for instance), than others (offensive linemen, for instance). Numbers can be particularly helpful in separating wide receivers, especially the X-Info numbers NFL teams can only get from Ice powered by Stats.

Stats

I took a look at how the top eight receivers in the draft (Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens, Stephen Hill, Ashlon Jeffery, Rueben Randle, Mohamed Sanu and Kendall Wright) stacked up in four unconventional statistical categories: plays of 25 yards or more, yards at catch per reception, yards after catch and yards after catch per reception.

The numbers indicate scouts should go back to the tape on two juniors: Georgia Tech’s Hill and Wake Forest’s Givens. Both are probably consensus second rounders at this point, but these statistics suggest Hill and Givens are strong candidates to be NFL playmakers.

Hill is among the top three in every category but yards after the catch. But he had the highest yards after catch per reception at 11.18. He also had the highest yards at the catch per reception at 18.11, which speaks to the kinds of routes he is capable of running. Hill also had 15 plays of 25 yards or more, which was third highest.

Givens was strong in yards after the catch with 700 yards (second only to Blackmon’s 794), yards after the catch per reception at 8.43 (second only to Hill) and explosive plays with (second to Wright’s 19).

Wright also fared well in the survey. He had 698 yards after the catch, third highest among the receivers.

 

[TriplecHamp]

also interesting that Josh McD drafted a similar receiver from the same program just a few years ago.

 

[manxman2601]

Stephen Hill gets inflated stats because of the system so I don't think his stats tell us very much. I'm still interested because of the upside, 6'5"" quick WR's don't come around all that often. I've gone off him though since I watched him against UNC. He dropped a sitter for a touchdown, completely uncovered, perfect throw. However, it wasn't the drop that bothered me, it was that he immediately started limping after the drop (reminiscent of Revis after giving up that Moss TD). It just suggested someone not prepared to take ownership for his mistake. He was back in the game a couple of plays later.

I saw that on Chris Givens which is why I started to take a look at him. Looks like he might have some potential for our system with those YAC numbers; also looks like a fairly well developed receiver with good skills for a late second, third round value. He's certainly one to keep an eye on.

 

[Sciz]

Not really on the topic of Hill or Givens, but I'm sure Sanu rated very very poorly in this. His longest reception for the past two seasons combined is 32 yards. How does that happen on 169 receptions?

 

[bucky]

Not really on the topic of Hill or Givens, but I'm sure Sanu rated very very poorly in this. His longest reception for the past two seasons combined is 32 yards. How does that happen on 169 receptions?

I did not intend this to be a discussion of Hill and Givens, but more so about overall WR class and the proper way of evaluating them.

In case of Hill, if all he does is run fly and post patterns, then his "yards at catch" and "yards after catch" are right where you'd expect them to be. Still, he seems like a worthwhile flyer with one of our 2s.

However, I do think Blackmon and Wright are the 2 big-time WRs in this draft. I actually think Wright is underrated at this point and would love to see him slide to the Pats. But after he runs sub 4.4 at the combine, he'll probably go top 15.

 

[borg]

Not really on the topic of Hill or Givens, but I'm sure Sanu rated very very poorly in this. His longest reception for the past two seasons combined is 32 yards. How does that happen on 169 receptions?

Having just completed my in depth YouTube 3 minute highlight tour of 6 out of 8 top WRs (missed Hill, didn't bother with Blackmon).....It comes down to who the Pats want to replace at WR.

If BB is trying to replicate the Moss dynamic, then I lean towards Floyd. Crazy sick hands, leaping down field threat...stiff in the hips turning up field, and slightly spastic running style.....This guy can win sideline battles, jump balls...a play maker.

If BB is trying to replace Branch, there is alot to like about Sanu. Production, blocking, versatility, and toughness. Those blocks....wow...viscious. Wildcat running skills, I see a guy the rest of the O could feed off of. I'll be watching his #'s at the combine, hoping his cone quickness is elite....seems like a BB player.

Jeffrey....sure he was a man vs boys in college....but I agree with Mayock that he created no seperation vs college DBs....just bigger and stronger. His ass also looked huge for a WR and I see a body type that won't remain NFL effective in the long run. I see a Hernandez type role in his future...nothing wrong with that....just not for the Pats

Givens....didn't seem very athletic

 

[TriplecHamp]

Not really on the topic of Hill or Givens, but I'm sure Sanu rated very very poorly in this. His longest reception for the past two seasons combined is 32 yards. How does that happen on 169 receptions?

Dodd, and Nova will do that to you.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Georgia Tech’s Hill numbers might be off due to his offense. The defense tends to play cover 1, cover 3 (rarely) and cover 0 vs that GT old school option attack. That invites one on one coverage vs WRs because the safeties have to be in the box for run support.

 

[Off The Grid]

I'm sure Sanu rated very very poorly in this.

His longest reception for the past two seasons combined is 32 yards.

How does that happen on 169 receptions?

I'm...pacing myself, Sir.

 

[MaineMan]

Funny.

For the past week, I've been working on a spreadsheet comparing FA WRs on almost exactly those measures. Plus catch rate.

I've been measuring "explosive plays" as a percentage of total plays, rather than as a raw number since the proportion seems more informative. I've also been using YAC as a percentage of total yards.

It's even more informative, I think, to examine year-by-year since it can reveal a player's development and/or differences in how the player is being used in the offense (which may correlate to the loss of a teammate, a change at QB or even a change at coach).

Mike Wallace is a case in point. Over his three seasons, his "yards-at-catch" have dropped from 15.9 to 9.7 while his YAC % has increased from 17% to 41% and his catch rate has risen from 54% to 64%. His first downs have also increased from 28 to 54. So, even though his standard ypc has dropped from 19.4 to 16.6, his overall value to the offense may have increased - possibly because he's learning and expanding his "route portfolio".

 

[Defsoul]

Georgia Tech’s Hill numbers might be off due to his offense. The defense tends to play cover 1, cover 3 (rarely) and cover 0 vs that GT old school option attack. That invites one on one coverage vs WRs because the safeties have to be in the box for run support.

They definitely are. Teams will often put 8 or even 9 defenders in the box to stop GT's option attack. That leaves the outside receiver(s) in a lot of one on one situations that can be exploited by talented guys like Demaryius Thomas or Stephen Hill. Thomas like Hill had a crazy yards per catch ratio during his last season at GT. He caught 46 passes for 1154 yards. That's 25.4 yards per catch.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Hill sounds like the kind of WR the Pats would normally go for. He doesn't have great production, but he has good speed and while he is raw, has a high upside. Unfortunately, he is also the kind of WR that will likely be a bust in this system. Brady doesn't have any patience for young WR's trying to learn the system, let alone learn how to run proper routes. NE Patriots Draft had a great point about what kind of WR's the Pats should be looking at, and they should be looking at "what they are, not what they can be". Hill now is nothing but potential, and if the Pats select him I think all he will be is wasted potential.

 

[manxman2601]

Hill sounds like the kind of WR the Pats would normally go for. He doesn't have great production, but he has good speed and while he is raw, has a high upside. Unfortunately, he is also the kind of WR that will likely be a bust in this system. Brady doesn't have any patience for young WR's trying to learn the system, let alone learn how to run proper routes. NE Patriots Draft had a great point about what kind of WR's the Pats should be looking at, and they should be looking at "what they are, not what they can be". Hill now is nothing but potential, and if the Pats select him I think all he will be is wasted potential.

Going to disagree with you a little here. Assuming we sign or draft more rounded receiver in the Branch mould, Hill will be excellent in the just get deep style receiver, which I can't imagine is too difficult. With his size and speed, defenses would have to respect him which would open up the middle more for Brady's go-to guys.Throw in redzone patterns and that's all he'd really need initially.

I wouldn't spend a second rounder on that skillset, but a third rounder, certainly because it would add another mismatch to our offense.

 

[Defsoul]

Hill sounds like the kind of WR the Pats would normally go for. He doesn't have great production, but he has good speed and while he is raw, has a high upside. Unfortunately, he is also the kind of WR that will likely be a bust in this system. Brady doesn't have any patience for young WR's trying to learn the system, let alone learn how to run proper routes. NE Patriots Draft had a great point about what kind of WR's the Pats should be looking at, and they should be looking at "what they are, not what they can be". Hill now is nothing but potential, and if the Pats select him I think all he will be is wasted potential.

Brady is so far advanced in this offense that it's probably really hard for any new receiver to get on the same page with him. It's not only the rookies. Just look at Ochocinco. But I agree with you. It would be nice to see them go after a more polished receiver instead of guys with really high ceiling, but also a very low floor.

 

[Off The Grid]

Georgia Tech’s Hill numbers might be off due to his offense.

EXACTLY.

Check out the stats: He had 14 catches for 179 yards and 1 TD the entire YEAR...

...except for that game against CumberLand.

 

[bucky]

EXACTLY.

Check out the stats: He had 14 catches for 179 yards and 1 TD the entire YEAR...

...except for that game against CumberLand.

Those are eerily similar to 85's numbers with the Pats this year. Sign em up!

 

[resdubwhite]

Wow. Sanu looks promising.


Very promising.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Hill sounds like the kind of WR the Pats would normally go for. He doesn't have great production, but he has good speed and while he is raw, has a high upside. Unfortunately, he is also the kind of WR that will likely be a bust in this system. Brady doesn't have any patience for young WR's trying to learn the system, let alone learn how to run proper routes. NE Patriots Draft had a great point about what kind of WR's the Pats should be looking at, and they should be looking at "what they are, not what they can be". Hill now is nothing but potential, and if the Pats select him I think all he will be is wasted potential.

Yup. I'm not going to worry about a receiver that is unlikely to contribute, no matter how big or how fast.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Yup. I'm not going to worry about a receiver that is unlikely to contribute, no matter how big or how fast.

I agree, we need to see 40 times on receivers first, then we need to see tape of them beating press coverage, or option route running.