Hype Pre-Draft Thread

[FredFromDartmouth]

That's not completely true.

The Patriots have their big board. They obviously spend much more time scouting positions of need (ie I don't expect a lot of serious RB, QB, TE, or T scouting went on beyond checking a guy out who they think may have a chance of substantially dropping). So to begin with they are of course looking at some areas more than others.


The closest thing I can see to being a "need" pick was the Wilson pick last year where he came out of no where. Besides then the Patriots have shown very little in terms of forcing a pick that I can remember in the BB era.

I think this is essentially correct. The Patriots draft according to need in general sense; they go into the draft looking for certain positions (and basically ignoring others) and then when it is their turn they take the highest rated player among their needs. If there are none at the draft position or they think they can get equivilent value later on then they trade down. Sometimes they obsess on a certain player and trade up.

As far as the Wilson pick...I think that the Brace pick was another; they were desperate for a DT as insurance/leverage against Wilfork.

 

[MTM558]

I don't know where exactly the Patriots will pick. I don't know if they will move up, trade out of round 1, or stay pat.

What I do expect, however, is for their first pick to be the highest rated Cornerback on the board. Outside of Dennard and Arrington, what contributors do they have at the position that are locked up for multiple years? Cole and Williams are Special Teams only, Dowling at this point will be a bonus if he can give anything, and Talib could walk after this year. The Patriots need a young stud to groom at the Left Cornerback spot across from Dennard. Talib's asking price will be too high.

After the CB, I anticipate them moving for a WR or two in a round 2 + 4 kind of move (assuming they can acquire a 4). This is a deep receiver class, and I believe contributors can be found in the 4th round, if not later.

In between CB and WR, I expect business as usual, addressing youth and depth at DL and OL.

Regardless, this will be fun.

 

[supafly]

If we had a 2,3,4,4 I think we could draft an interesting WR, still get a CB and LB, DL call it good with a longshot WR in the 7th and get back on track with two #1 next year.

Or we could trade out of round 1 and still acquire an additional 2nd and maybe a 4th, which would give us 2a, 2b, 3, 4, 7a, 7b for this year.

Your argument about it being a weak draft is a compelling one for trading out of the 1st and adding an additional first again next year.

Either way, I'll be somewhat surprised if they take their pick at #29 on Thursday night.

 

[Torsten]

Trade up to sign Impact-Werner.
Fellow German SeaBass will help him to Convert into Pats System in Lightning Speed. Select an WR with next pick, Brady will make EVERY 2nd or 3rd rounder shine....

 

[TruthSeeker]

Or we could trade out of round 1 and still acquire an additional 2nd and maybe a 4th, which would give us 2a, 2b, 3, 4, 7a, 7b for this year.

Your argument about it being a weak draft is a compelling one for trading out of the 1st and adding an additional first again next year.

Either way, I'll be somewhat surprised if they take their pick at #29 on Thursday night.

I agree with your last sentence. Unless they absolutely think someone at 29 will immediately make their team that much better, I see them trading down and gaining an extra 2 and 4. Then they trade a 2 for a 3 and a 5. Wind up with 2, 3,3,4,5,7,7. DB, WR , DL, WR,LB,OL would be my guess if they had those picks.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I would be shocked if we made our first round pick. I think we end up trading back until we have added a bunch of day two picks.

I also wouldn't be surprised if we went with a DT to start next to Wilfork (thus improving our interior pass rush). My ideals draft would have us moving back to the point we have 3 second round picks, then grabbing Hunt, Woods and a stud DT (Short, Hankins).

With how late our pick is it will be pretty difficult to guess what we are doing pre draft since our draft will heavily depend on risers and fallers.

 

[Blizzzard]

I don't think BB drafts for need. I think he has his board, rated by best available athlete, as well as who best fits HIS system. That's why people were baffled by picks like Logan Mankins in the first round, who was rated a 3rd round pick by most pundits/experts, and Deion Branch in the 2nd round, who was rated by some pundits/experts, as a 7th round pick. Why did BB reach for these guys ? He didn't, that's who he had on his board when the Pats pick was next. By the way, sitting there with my trusty Pro Football Weekly Draft guide, I HATED both picks.

BB's picks will always baffle the pundits/experts/fans. Don't be surprised if BB picks an O-Lineman in the first round. Now I just use my draft guides for information about who we pick.

I thought that it would be interesting to note something the BB said to me at the" dinner with the coach" event last year (cashed in points on my patriots visa).
during the Q&A I asked him if there were ever any players that fell in the draft, that he was surprised at. he started out very BB-like saying something to the effect of "well there's never really any surprises because we know that the draft is anybody's guess...etc" then he

 

[VrabelJr]

In terms of what this draft provides in value based on where we'll be picking, I think we will be coming out of this draft with a DT, WR, Weak side LB, CB and Guard in that order with another WR or DT sprinkled in there if we trade out of the 1st and acquire an additional 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder this year.

 

[Blizzzard]

sorry... phone started acting weird..
basically he stopped abruptly and looks right at me and says " Vince and Logan" "we didn't think either of them would be available when our pick came up"
this surprised me and a few others (including Fred Kirsch, who was at my table) of course Vince was not a surprise, but it was interesting that BB not only felt that Mankins was a 1st rounder, but a fairly early first rounder.

this is why in BB I trust, and take things "draft experts" say with more than a few grains of salt.

p.s. sorry for the split post. phone just posted what I wrote and wouldn't let me edit it

 

[manxman2601]

Because there is so much uncertainty in terms of where players should be slotted - and not just in the first round - there will be plenty of value at pretty much anytime through the first two days and that's where BB does his best work

 

[TruthSeeker]

sorry... phone started acting weird..
basically he stopped abruptly and looks right at me and says " Vince and Logan" "we didn't think either of them would be available when our pick came up"
this surprised me and a few others (including Fred Kirsch, who was at my table) of course Vince was not a surprise, but it was interesting that BB not only felt that Mankins was a 1st rounder, but a fairly early first rounder.

this is why in BB I trust, and take things "draft experts" say with more than a few grains of salt.

p.s. sorry for the split post. phone just posted what I wrote and wouldn't let me edit it

Very interesting insight, and glad you got to not only meet Belichick but also ask him a question, must have been an amazing evening. Yes, in BB we trust, BUT, he's made some big time blunders as well, he can't draft a DB or WR to save his life. I'll never get over Bethel f'ing Johnson over Anqaun Boldin. His 2nd round picks are 50/50 as well. Far from perfect, and I'm sure there would be stats to show BB's drafting has been slightly above average.

 

[Deus Irae]

IMO, nothing's really been resolved since the end of the season. WR is still the biggest problem area, followed by safety, DE and CB, in that order. If the Patriots can find a team to do a drop down of just a handful of spots (trading rnd 1 for a top five round 2), I'm comfortable with that move. If not, the team should stand pat and draft WR/WR or WR/S in the first two rounds. Round 3 can get them Honeybadger, and then Bill can trade the 7ths for 2014 6ths and take the rest of the draft off to go golfing or fishing on Saturday, if he wants.

 

[Leemo]

IMO, nothing's really been resolved since the end of the season. WR is still the biggest problem area, followed by safety, DE and CB, in that order. If the Patriots can find a team to do a drop down of just a handful of spots (trading rnd 1 for a top five round 2), I'm comfortable with that move. If not, the team should stand pat and draft WR/WR or WR/S in the first two rounds. Round 3 can get them Honeybadger, and then Bill can trade the 7ths for 2014 6ths and take the rest of the draft off to go golfing or fishing on Saturday, if he wants.

This is what the problem is with football fans who take no real notice in the draft until a week before. Why the hell do we want the honey badger? He can't even play outside, he projects as a slot corner in the nfl and we already have a capable slot guy in Arrington. The type of corner we require is one who can play outside, capable of covering for Talib/Dennard if need be. I'm ok with taking 2 WR's ... doubt we do though, atleast not in the early rounds

 

[Frezo]

I would be shocked if we made our first round pick. I think we end up trading back until we have added a bunch of day two picks.

I also wouldn't be surprised if we went with a DT to start next to Wilfork (thus improving our interior pass rush). My ideals draft would have us moving back to the point we have 3 second round picks, then grabbing Hunt, Woods and a stud DT (Short, Hankins).

With how late our pick is it will be pretty difficult to guess what we are doing pre draft since our draft will heavily depend on risers and fallers.

The Pats could have trouble finding a trade partner. Every team knows there is talent to be had in the lower rounds and I'd bet there are a bunch of teams looking to trade down that could make a more attractive offer than the 29th pick. This will take some BB magic.

 

[manxman2601]

This is what the problem is with football fans who take no real notice in the draft until a week before. Why the hell do we want the honey badger? He can't even play outside, he projects as a slot corner in the nfl and we already have a capable slot guy in Arrington. The type of corner we require is one who can play outside, capable of covering for Talib/Dennard if need be. I'm ok with taking 2 WR's ... doubt we do though, atleast not in the early rounds

Because he provides a lot of what BB likes. He's an elite special teams player, he's a turnover machine and he can be the defensive piece that can be lined up in different positions to create defensive mismatches - he'd be the Aaron Hernandez of the defense. I'm not saying he's a lock, but he's very much a BB type player - hence the excessive contact the Pats have had with him. Also could represent good value if other teams pass on him.

As for not being able to play on the outside, why? Because he's 5-9? Dennard is only 5-10. I'm not saying you start him there regularly, but he could certainly see reps there.

 

[Leemo]

Because he provides a lot of what BB likes. He's an elite special teams player, he's a turnover machine and he can be the defensive piece that can be lined up in different positions to create defensive mismatches - he'd be the Aaron Hernandez of the defense. I'm not saying he's a lock, but he's very much a BB type player - hence the excessive contact the Pats have had with him. Also could represent good value if other teams pass on him.

As for not being able to play on the outside, why? Because he's 5-9? Dennard is only 5-10. I'm not saying you start him there regularly, but he could certainly see reps there.

Dennard proved in college he could play outside and cover bigger guys, and the honey badger got burned more time than I can count.

There is NO WAY that BB takes him with our 3rd round pick IMO

 

[patsinthesnow]

Dennard proved in college he could play outside and cover bigger guys, and the honey badger got burned more time than I can count.

There is NO WAY that BB takes him with our 3rd round pick IMO

Im with you Leemo, we'll see. I feel their are much better options at CB than Mathieu at 91. McFadden and Wreh-Wilson for example, than a backup nickel CB that plays STs.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is what the problem is with football fans who take no real notice in the draft until a week before.

You have no idea what you're talking about on this.

Why the hell do we want the honey badger? He can't even play outside, he projects as a slot corner in the nfl and we already have a capable slot guy in Arrington.

1. special teams
2. dime back
3. nickel back if Arrington has to sub in on the outside or if Arrington gets hurt
4. ball hawk

The type of corner we require is one who can play outside, capable of covering for Talib/Dennard if need be. I'm ok with taking 2 WR's ... doubt we do though, atleast not in the early rounds

The Patriots need both outside cb and slot cb help. Anyone who watched them play last year should know that.

 

[manxman2601]

Dennard proved in college he could play outside and cover bigger guys, and the honey badger got burned more time than I can count.

There is NO WAY that BB takes him with our 3rd round pick IMO

Sorry, but my one biggest bug-bear is the phrase "no way" when it comes to the draft. How can you possibly know?

 

[manxman2601]

Im with you Leemo, we'll see. I feel their are much better options at CB than Mathieu at 91. McFadden and Wreh-Wilson for example, than a backup nickel CB that plays STs.

I'm possibly McFadden's biggest fan - certainly hereabouts and probably only behind his Mom and agent so you'll get no arguments from me in that regard. But Mathieu is, to my mind, the type of weapon BB would love on his defense. We know how highly he values special teams and turnovers and for that reason alone he's likely worth a 3rd to the Pats.

In the last two drafts we drafted a backup QB, a probable backup RB (at the time) and a DE that didn't see the field all year in the 3rd. So I think an elite special teamer and serviceable backup CB could certainly carry a late 3rd round grade.