Florio is right. The Judge will force a settlement.
Neither side will be happy with the outcome
There's a core concept in negotiation called the "threat point", which is what happens if the parties don't agree. It looks like the answer to that is:
- The judge rules that the penalties were ridiculous, and should be reduced to nothing more than a wrist slap.
- The league staunchly maintains its opinion that Brady cheated. (The NFLPA filings did very little to undermine their blanket right to make findings of fact.)
- Brady's only further legal recourse about the reputational issues as an expensive and disruptive defamation suit.
So I expect the settlement negotiations to mainly be about:
- How light of a wrist-slap.
- Whether Brady admits any wrongdoing in noncooperation (I hope he stays totally firm on that as a favor to the NFLPA, even though I believe the reports that he was willing to waver on that to settle pre-court-case).
- Whether Brady signs away his rights to a defamation suit.
If I were Brady, I'd agree to mutually signing away the rights to a defamation suit. I'd insist on a special exemption from fines for cold-shouldering certain named media members, which I expect the NFL would smile and grant. Then, between the handshake and the actual signing, I'd hold a press conference in which:
- I explained the agreement.
- I absolutely blasted the NFL, calling them collectively a bunch of dishonest, vindictive, corrupt lying cheaters.
- I carefully avoiding defaming any particular NFL person by name, because their right to sue me probably is not covered by the settlement agreement.
- I said I'd only take questions or further discuss this publicly on very limited occasions, which my representatives would announce. (One, for example, would be a conference call with the beat writers for all 13 teams the Pats will play this season. I'd take questions on that call, but not then again the week of the game.)
I.e., I'd hit back, hard, to have that be reported in the same news cycle as the settlement offer is. Then I'd get rid of the distraction as fast as possible, recognizing that "as fast as possible" hardly equates to "overnight".
Alternatively, if the final settlement does NOT include a promise not to file a defamation suit, I'd:
- Refuse to comment on any settlement until after it was signed, because a deal isn't final until it's final.
- I'd have my representatives file a defamation suit half an hour after the settlement is signed.
Have fun, NFL, with those two events being combined in the same news cycle.
Oh yeah -- I'd publicly offer to settle the defamation suit for an apology to me, a cancellation of the Pats' penalties, and a $1 million donation to whichever charitable organization would have benefited from the Patriots' fine.