Football Outsiders' take on Garoppolo and Brissett

[Tony2046]

I don't expect Brissett to be a star tonight. Making your first start in a primetime game against an elite defense is tough. He has a good supporting cast. They can win. He's almost certainly a more talented football player than Trevor Siemian, for instance, but Brissett probably is not going to carry them to victory, and if he struggles we shouldn't declare him a bust, either.

I've read a lot of good things about Jacoby. Can't wait to see an early audition from him. But, as you say, it's just an early audition unless, of course, he lights up the stage which will mean we will have to endure a "Montana to Young III" thread.

 

[Ring 6]

It's just a stats page that happens to have an absurdly small sample size at this point in the season. It's up to users to understand that those stats aren't very meaningful yet -- just as it's up to users to understand that, say, a score posted 10 minutes into a game isn't very meaningful yet. That doesn't mean the score shouldn't be reported.

When did I say it shouldn't be reported?
I said this is a good example of why trying to judge football by statistics is foolhardy.

 

[Ring 6]

Actually, re-watching Brissett's plays, I can tell you why he was rated so horribly: (1) the passing stats don't include the sack he took, but FO stats do. (2) He did cough up the football, and FO penalizes a QB for a kept fumble the same amount as for a lost fumble. (It doesn't penalize the QB if a WR/RB/TE fumbles, though.)

So getting sacked once gives him the worst rating in the league?
The post I read said the primary reason was yards his 3rd down passes travelled on the plays the coaches called.

 

[raduray]

Stats are meaningless absent a significant sample population. How many passes has JG thrown? He's only played 1.4 games. How about Brisset? 0.6 games, and with only minimal prep. The numbers are promising for JG, but not yet signifiant. They're totally meaningless for Brisset, though tonight might start to give us a clue.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

So getting sacked once gives him the worst rating in the league?
The post I read said the primary reason was yards his 3rd down passes travelled on the plays the coaches called.

I didn't say that the short third down passes was the sum total explanation. (And, rewatching, I see that was largely "small sample size theatre", as a result of a shovel pass on 3rd-and-WTF.)

 

[zydecochris]

It is dumb for them to even try to evaluate JB's ability from that conservative game plan etc. JB is definitely not on Jimmy's level but he has some intriguing traits. He is calm under pressure, something you don't see from mobile quarterbacks, and he seems to be generally safe with his throws. In a weird way, JB reminds me more of Brady than any quarterback we have had.

I wonder if we will use his ability to run or will we fear the risk of injury considering he is our last qb.

The way that he reminds me of Brady is because he is smart and by all accounts extraordinarily coachable, you don't have people like Parcell rave about his intangibles if that isn't the case.

I've watched him in the 2014 and 2015 Florida State games, and now in the Miami NE game. That isn't very many data points (is anyone on this board a NC State fan that watched all of his games??), but I was struck by how much his game evolved and changed year to year. In the 2014 game (I watched the whole game, but attached highlights only below) he looked he was routinely shrugging off defenders and throwing it down the field with defenders hanging off of him, and repeatedly bulling ahead on runs, he isn't super fast but he is a smart runner, and looks to be strong as an ox. Look at the play at the 1 minute mark where he shrugs off defenders and throws the touchdown (!), and the play at 1:43 where he throws while going down(!!), doesn't that remind you of a poor man's Roethlisberger? I mean skill wise, not intangible wise.


The only summary I could find of the 2015 Florida State game is 15 minutes long, I have linked it below, but I watched the whole game. Surprisingly, I thought his game had evolved into something much different. He appeared to be much more under control. If he got wrapped up while passing, he would go down instead of trying to extend the play. He still ran, but more under control. He threw the ball away much, much more often. Was this him being coached to protect the ball better? It looked like that to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BffqboBTGPY

Then, there are his Patriot highlights, once again his game looks like it has evolved tremendously. He's throwing these short passes with a couple of step drop back, quick release. No running all over the place extending the play like he routinely did in college. When he ran, he actually slid down (!!!), which is completely different, in college he would try to bull over people.


So back to your original point, one way he is like Brady is that he is super coachable, I think you can tell that by looking at how his game evolved from 2014 to now.

 

[Tony2046]

Stats are meaningless absent a significant sample population. How many passes has JG thrown? He's only played 1.4 games. How about Brisset? 0.6 games, and with only minimal prep. The numbers are promising for JG, but not yet signifiant. They're totally meaningless for Brisset, though tonight might start to give us a clue.

They say as much.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

With fewer situations to measure, the numbers spread out a bit more, so you'll see more extreme DVOA ratings for part-time players and for measurements of teams in more specific situations (for example, passing on third downs). The charts listing players in order of DVOA have cut-offs for number of attempts, because players with just a handful of plays end up with absurd VOA and DVOA numbers.

Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates -- in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates. That means that when we say, "In 2014, Marshawn Lynch had a DVOA of 23.1%, what we are really saying is “In 2014, Marshawn Lynch, playing in Darrell Bevell’s offensive system with the Seattle offensive line blocking for him and Russell Wilson selling the keeper when necessary, had a DVOA of 23.1%."

Fun stuff.

 

[Tony2046]

The way that he reminds me of Brady is because he is smart and by all accounts extraordinarily coachable, you don't have people like Parcell rave about his intangibles if that isn't the case.

I've watched him in the 2014 and 2015 Florida State games, and now in the Miami NE game. That isn't very many data points (is anyone on this board a NC State fan that watched all of his games??), but I was struck by how much his game evolved and changed year to year. In the 2014 game (I watched the whole game, but attached highlights only below) he looked he was routinely shrugging off defenders and throwing it down the field with defenders hanging off of him, and repeatedly bulling ahead on runs, he isn't super fast but he is a smart runner, and looks to be strong as an ox. Look at the play at the 1 minute mark where he shrugs off defenders and throws the touchdown (!), and the play at 1:43 where he throws while going down(!!), doesn't that remind you of a poor man's Roethlisberger? I mean skill wise, not intangible wise.


The only summary I could find of the 2015 Florida State game is 15 minutes long, I have linked it below, but I watched the whole game. Surprisingly, I thought his game had evolved into something much different. He appeared to be much more under control. If he got wrapped up while passing, he would go down instead of trying to extend the play. He still ran, but more under control. He threw the ball away much, much more often. Was this him being coached to protect the ball better? It looked like that to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BffqboBTGPY

Then, there are his Patriot highlights, once again his game looks like it has evolved tremendously. He's throwing these short passes with a couple of step drop back, quick release. No running all over the place extending the play. When he ran, he actually slid down (!!!), which is completely different, in college he would try to bull over people.


So back to your original point, one way he is like Brady is that he is super coachable, I think you can tell that by looking at how his game evolved from 2014 to now.

Fantastic post. Thanks

 

[n6249c]

I don't expect Brissett to be a star tonight. Making your first start in a primetime game against an elite defense is tough. He has a good supporting cast. They can win. He's almost certainly a more talented football player than Trevor Siemian, for instance, but Brissett probably is not going to carry them to victory, and if he struggles we shouldn't declare him a bust, either.

Have to disagree, although it may just be semantics. I agree, they can win.

Where I disagree is, if they win he will be a star, even if he does not carry them to victory on his own shoulders he will be a star for not struggling so much he drags them down to defeat.

I expect he'll do well enough for them to win. If he does that, even if they lose a close game because the D can't close the deal he'll be a star.

But I don't expect the D to fall short either. I expect Brissett and the offense will do well enough to win, and the D to do well enough to win, so the Pats will win. Given the hoopla about JG's injury that will be enough to make Brissett a star, and generate more hoopla about all of the Patriots' QBs.

 

[SVN]

Its going to be tough for brisset on a short week with basically some walkthroughs to do something. I think o line will be under seige more since they benefited a lot with Jimmy's Quick release like this


Brisset doesnt have that quick a release. Our defense cant give up big plays to hopkins etc. They need to play lights out and Pats have to play from ahead to have a chance to win.

 

[hovis]

Can't understand the FO hate here. They have some of the best metrics out there. And they use them effectively as tools in combination with qualitative data for analysis. Saying something as absolute as "stats are useless" is equally foolish as relying solely on stats. Your observations will never be keen enough and your biases are unavoidable. Numbers don't lie.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2016

They see Garoppolo as one of the five best passing QBs of the season so far on both of their key metrics, DYAR (which is a volume-based stat) and DVOA (which is adjusted for the number of plays). In particular, they have him performing about 34% better than a typical QB would given the down, distance, and locations of his plays.

On the flip side, they have Brissett in the bottom third of QBs by DYAR, and in the bottom five by DVOA; on the latter, he's at –41%. They do rate Brissett a better runner than Garoppolo, though, at +34% vs. +14%.

All of that said, there is one major difference between the two—a stat called ALEX, which stands for Air Less EXpected. It's a measure of how far a QB throws a ball on third down (only) relative to the yardage needed for a new set of downs. For Garoppolo, it's +2.9—in other words, his average third-down pass went about three yards beyond the sticks. For Brissett, though, it's –7.3—in other words, Brissett's average third-down pass was over seven yards short of the sticks.

I like Football Outsiders, but their stats are really only meaningful over a number of games or most of a season. Brissett came in to "do a job" by holding onto the lead, winding the clock and not make any dumb mistakes. That wouldn't be captured by these numbers, but he certainly did his job.

 

[bbobbo]

The Bill O'Brien Texans are also a particularly tough draw for a first-time starter -- they're very much Pats-like in their game-by-game scheming and will do their best to overwhelm him.

On the flip side, BB's Patriots have sometimes struggled against blank-slate QBs they have no film on.

bo'b is 6-0 vs rookie QBs:

2014
carr - 2nd start
mettenberg x 2 - 1st & 5th starts
bortles x 2 - 10th & 13th starts

2015
winston - 3rd start

 

[primetime]

They didn't? Then why are they ranked, and why is Brissett ranked horrendously based PRIMARILY on the play call?

Brissett's literally in a non-qualifier section because of the small sample size. He's not ranked. Did you even click the link?

 

[Tony2046]

bo'b is 6-0 vs rookie QBs:

2014
carr - 2nd start
mettenberg x 2 - 1st & 5th starts
bortles x 2 - 10th & 13th starts

2015
winston - 3rd start

That's interesting.

@JMC00 posted a stat that rookie QB's starting under BB are 5- 0.

Someone's streak is going to end.