Football Outsiders rankings

[theglorydays]

Do you think that Drew Brees' stats from week 1 should be thrown out?

Points scored
7th (27.1 per game)
Last week: 18th (20.8 per game)

Points allowed
3rd (15.1 per game)
Last week: 11th (18.2 per game)

Third-down offense
8th (37 of 84, 44 percent)
Last week: 10th (32 of 73, 43.8 percent)

Third-down defense
19th (26 of 68, 38.2 percent)
Last week: 24th (24 of 58, 41.4 percent)

Turnover margin
Tied-2nd (Plus-8, 12 takeaways, 4 giveaways)
Last week: 9th (Plus-3, 7 takeaways, 4 giveaways)

Red-zone offense (based on TD percentage)
23rd (12 of 26, 46.2 percent)
Last week: 25th (9 of 20)

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
Tied-16th (opponents are 8 of 15, or 53.3 percent)
Last week: Tied-20th (opponents are 8 of 14)
Some pretty amazing shifts for week six. Are going to hammer opponents like that every week? Not likely. I just think it's interesting and also a good reminder that Stats can be pretty misleading sometimes.

One of the posters on this board made this post a few days back. I think he makes a good point and he is basically saying the same thing i am saying.

I'm not saying throw Brady's stats out, i'm saying that he hasn't performed as the #2 quarterback so far.

I guess it will all even out as the season goes on...

 

[Patjew]

Points scored
7th (27.1 per game)
Last week: 18th (20.8 per game)

Points allowed
3rd (15.1 per game)
Last week: 11th (18.2 per game)

Third-down offense
8th (37 of 84, 44 percent)
Last week: 10th (32 of 73, 43.8 percent)

Third-down defense
19th (26 of 68, 38.2 percent)
Last week: 24th (24 of 58, 41.4 percent)

Turnover margin
Tied-2nd (Plus-8, 12 takeaways, 4 giveaways)
Last week: 9th (Plus-3, 7 takeaways, 4 giveaways)

Red-zone offense (based on TD percentage)
23rd (12 of 26, 46.2 percent)
Last week: 25th (9 of 20)

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
Tied-16th (opponents are 8 of 15, or 53.3 percent)
Last week: Tied-20th (opponents are 8 of 14)
Some pretty amazing shifts for week six. Are going to hammer opponents like that every week? Not likely. I just think it's interesting and also a good reminder that Stats can be pretty misleading sometimes.

One of the posters on this board made this post a few days back. I think he makes a good point and he is basically saying the same thing i am saying.

I'm not saying throw Brady's stats out, i'm saying that he hasn't performed as the #2 quarterback so far.

I guess it will all even out as the season goes on...

I thought you were done?

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I thought you were done?

No, he wants to exclude the post where he said he was done

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

That 59-0 pounding you guys put on Tennessee kinda skews these statistics, wouldn't you agree?

Only if we can discount the 59-0 pasting your team put on any team this ye.......... errr, never mind, your team didn't hang 59-0 on anyone. EV'AH..... In the history of the it's existence.

It's real easy to say don't count that game ain't it. Why not, it happened didn't it? Maybe we shouldn't count the NYJ game either, cuz we are clearly better then them so it's not fair to have it weight us down are stats. Real dumb logic.

Whatever man, I'm done here. No point debating this anymore.

Everyone loves a quitter. :singing:

 

[Patjew]

No, he wants to exclude the post where he said he was done

Ha, good one!

 

[DarrylS]

This is like the Olympics, you throw out the high and the low, average the rest then we will really know how Brady is doing... the Indianapolis Judge give the Patriots.. .5

 

[convertedpatsfan]

No, he wants to exclude the post where he said he was done

That made me laugh before I even had my morning coffee. Kudos.

And while I agree that #2 may be a bit high for Brady so far, I don't think it's fair to say it's based solely on the 59-0 win. The media jumped all over Brady and the Pats after a poor game against the Jets, and the overall impression was that Brady was just awful.

Watching him all season, he has struggled with his accuracy, especially on deep throws. He's missed wide open guys. He's played as poorly as I can remember him playing, even going back to college. And yet, if you skip that Jets game, here's what his QB ratings look like:

@BUF: 97.8
ATL: 87.1
BAL: 100.8
@DEN: 97.4

Not too shabby at all. And this was accumulated vs. a division opponent on the road, 2 of last year's play-off teams, and an undefeated division leader, with his security blanket (Welker) injured for a while and Moss struggling with back problems, and no real #3 WR option. I can think of plenty of teams that wish their QB "struggled" like Brady.

As for the Titans, don't forget that Manning and the Colts "only" put up 31 the week before against Tennessee. Manning's got better numbers than Brady, but Manning's also only played one team with a winning record (the 3-2 Cardinals).

The Pats started the season against 5 undefeated teams, and the Jets, Ravens, and Broncos D are all better than anything the Colts have faced yet. But there's no talk of Manning's rating being a bit inflated.

Tom hasn't played as well as he's capable of, but he's still had a pretty good year.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That 59-0 pounding you guys put on Tennessee kinda skews these statistics, wouldn't you agree?

well, i'm a firm believer in the old adage that there are "lies, damn lies and statistics," so you can cut them any way you want to make them say almost anything. the only stat that counts is 4--2.

as for any one game "skewing" anything, there's another statistician (or anti statistician) saying that I like: If you "normalize" the weather, there'd be no winter.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Don't forget that these rankings aren't just about the past. They are more an attempt to indicate the future. Ranking Brady #2 essentially is saying that they believe Brady now until the future will play really well.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Brady has been average all year.

Good point.... I mean it's not like his top two WRs have been injured or anything like that.

 

[Frezo]

I'm not saying throw it out completely, but the number 2 ranking isn't indicative of Brady's play thus far.

I'm pretty sure i read a thread on this forum a couple days back and posters were acknowledging this.

If the Pats beat TB by a similar score should both games not be considered?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm not saying throw it out completely, but the number 2 ranking isn't indicative of Brady's play thus far.

I'm pretty sure i read a thread on this forum a couple days back and posters were acknowledging this.

You're taking a lot airtime to make a lot of fairly obvious points...

i don't think there's a serious poster on this Board who wouldn't agree that Brady has spent most of the season getting back into form and indeed has been "average" for much of that time (he'd probably be a lot harder on himself)...

i also think everyone reasonable also acknowledges that he was playing against a terrible and undermanned team last week. of course, given that many other great QB's have played many games against "terrible and undermanned" teams over the years, we can also note that one or more of them would have put up five TD's in a quarter at some point in the 89 year history of the NFL if that were an easy or trivial thing to do--so, the fact that he did that last week when no other QB in the long history of the league did so, is a significant accomplishment.

also, i think most thoughtful posters here are sophisticated enough to know that one game doesn't make a season and that statistics are what you want them to be...

forget the nonsense about throwing out one game or another and dissecting individual games, it's a thorough and meaningless waste of time...the only stats that matter are the body of work over a year and a career for an elite QB, so six games really don't tell you much in that context, with or without their "high" and "low" games or whatever...

Serious fans of the Pats franchise judge their team by one thing: competitiveness for a championship year in and year out. we're supporting a team that's been to six super bowls (only the Cowboys and Steelers have been to more) and won three of them (only the 'boys, Steelers and 'niners have won more). So, this is all a nice discussion. but we won't know what we have in this team until the end of November.

suggestion to you: this board has a long tradition of welcoming thoughtful comments from intelligent and polite fans of opposing teams (we even have a couple of Jets and Indy fans who are welcome all the time)...you're pushing your luck with this silly line of comments and are going to be on a lot of "ignore" lists if you keep this up...

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not saying it shouldn't count, but it isn't a true reflection of the Patriots play this year. If i'm not mistaken, the Pats haven't scored more then 27 points in a game this year. Brady has been average all year.

I think you guys have a very good team, one that could easily make a run to the superbowl. But to not take into consideration last weeks games effect on these stats isn't smart.

Brady had 6 td and 2 ints coming into Tennesse. You guys were 3-2. He didn't play well in the Broncos game and that resulted in a loss. He didn't play well in the Jets game and that resulted in a loss.

But, he throws for 6tds against Tennesse and he is the second ranked quarterback?

Your point is absolutely correct and valid, because there's such a small sample size and that Titans game serves as such a clear outlier to date. Brady has been struggling this season, and it's something he himself has acknowledged. He hasn't been the #2 QB in the league. However, as Patriots fans, we are very hopeful that the Titans game signals the return of Brady to the very top of the QB ranks. When Brady is Brady, he's the best in the game, and that's what we're all hoping we'll consistently see again before the end of the season.

P.S. Welcome to the board