Don Banks - Snap Judgments

[mayoclinic]

Some nice pre-draft tidbits from Don Banks at CNNSI:

Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers shooting up NFL draft boards - Don Banks - SI.com

- On Aaron Curry: "As much as the Chiefs feel Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry might be the cleanest prospect in this draft, as many have labeled him, he's still a linebacker. And in his schooling in the Patriots Way under Bill Belichick, Pioli learned that one of the rules was that you don't usually spend first-round picks, especially top-five picks, on linebackers. True, Pioli and Belichick went against their history in taking Jerod Mayo No. 10 out of Tennessee last season in New England. But that's the exception, not the rule, and it was driven by the Patriots' obvious need at the position. And for that reason, I'm hearing Pioli may not opt to spend No. 3-level money on Curry no matter how impressive the ex-Demon Deacon is." But at 8-10 it would be a different story.

- On Tyson Jackson: "Strange as it might sound at this late date, I talked to two club executives Tuesday who said it's not out of the question that LSU defensive end Tyson Jackson cracks the top five. That's right, the top five. Both No. 3 Kansas City and No. 5 Cleveland were mentioned as teams that conceivably could pull the trigger on a prospect who is widely considered the best 3-4 end in the draft. It does make some sense in that the Chiefs and Browns are 3-4 defensive formation teams, and K.C.'s Scott Pioli and Cleveland's Eric Mangini came out of a Patriots system that says you always value defensive linemen above almost any other position in the draft. But Jackson in the top five might still be a little rich in terms of his draft grade, and teams are always hesitant to select someone in that ultra-pricey neighborhood and overpay for a pick that smacks of being a reach."

- On DE's rising up draft boards: "With Jackson in mind, one rule of thumb in the NFL draft that always bears repeating in the late stages of the evaluation process is that there are defensive linemen/pass rushers who perennially get pushed higher than maybe they were first projected. Jackson, Tennessee defensive end Robert Ayers and Northern Illinois defensive end-linebacker Larry English are all likely to come off the board earlier than most expected for much of the scouting season. Just this week, I've heard all three names mentioned as potential top 12 picks, with No. 9 Green Bay perhaps targeting English. All three of those names being called in the top 12 is probably a long shot, but it speaks to the reality that quality defensive linemen are always in short supply and subject to early round runs."

- On Baltimore at 26: "Here's a potential meaningful coincidence that could really come to fruition by Saturday night: In 1996, the first-year Baltimore Ravens selected University of Miami middle linebacker Ray Lewis at No. 26 in the first round. This year, the Ravens might find themselves in position to select the eventual heir to Lewis' throne, and it very well could be ... another inside linebacker, from a warm-weather school, at No. 26, who at least phonetically answers by the same first name: USC's Rey Maualuga." I've been predicting Maualuga to Baltimore as a possibility for a month now. I think he would be dynamite under Ray Lewis' tutelage in Baltimore's system, and as the eventual heir to Lewis.

- On New Orleans at 14: "The Saints like all three of their top choices at No. 14 quite a bit, and they still haven't definitively settled on which player they'll pick if all three remain on the board. But my hunch at the moment is they have USC linebacker Brian Cushing at No. 1, Ohio State running back Chris 'Beanie' Wells a very close second, and Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins at No. 3."

Banks is a good source for rumors close to the draft. He was one of the first to report the Mayo to NE idea last year.

 

[BlackFrancis]

I still don't get the Tyson Jackson love. The man has no explosiveness at all off the snap. I mean, I know the Missouri Valley Conference is a beer league compared to the SEC but is the difference between Everette Pedescleaux and Tyson Jackson really about 200 picks? Sure, if you are looking for a once promising player who invariably comes up small in his biggest games, Jackson's your man. But top 5? I'm not sure I'd draft him in the first round.

I figure this has to be someone in the top 5 trying get someone like Green Bay nervous that Jackson won't be there as an option later.

 

[mayoclinic]

I still don't get the Tyson Jackson love. The man has no explosiveness at all off the snap. I mean, I know the Missouri Valley Conference is a beer league compared to the SEC but is the difference between Everette Pedescleaux and Tyson Jackson really about 200 picks? Sure, if you are looking for a once promising player who invariably comes up small in his biggest games, Jackson's your man. But top 5? I'm not sure I'd draft him in the first round.

I figure this has to be someone in the top 5 trying get someone like Green Bay nervous that Jackson won't be there as an option later.

I'm not a Jackson lover either. His inconsistency scares me, and I don't see any particularly overwhelming upside to him. But lots of posters who's views I respect like Ochmed love him.

 

[everlong]

If English were to go that early, and I find it hard to believe, that would be a bad thing for the Pats as it could start a run. They might be looking at a scenario where if they don't pick one at 23 one won't be there at 34 for the correct value.

Two other interesting positions are OT and QB.

If Guys like Beatty, Britton, Meridith and Loadholt start to come off the board in the early 20's it could present a good opportunity for the Pats to trade back into the second round and grab picks for next year.

QB if they are all gone it pushes other prospects down which is good but on the off chance Freeman and\or Sanchez slide again it could present some nice trade down options.

The runs will be interesting to watch.

 

[KY Pats Fan]

I'm not a Jackson lover either. His inconsistency scares me, and I don't see any particularly overwhelming upside to him. But lots of posters who's views I respect like Ochmed love him.

I remember another DT/DE with the same reviews, Richard Seymour, and he's done pretty well. I expect that if Jackson is still on the board when the #9 pick rolls around, maybe a trade.

 

[BelichickFan]

I still don't get the Tyson Jackson love. The man has no explosiveness at all off the snap.

Ty Warren isn't Mr. Explosion either, I think Jackson will be more at his level than Seymour's - which is fine but #3 is a little higher than Warren went.

If English were to go that early, and I find it hard to believe, that would be a bad thing for the Pats as it could start a run. They might be looking at a scenario where if they don't pick one at 23 one won't be there at 34 for the correct value.

I'm not so sure they're locked into having to take a LB that high - there's a good group for the 2nd/3rd round too.

 

[everlong]

I'm not so sure they're locked into having to take a LB that high - there's a good group for the 2nd/3rd round too.

I wouldn't say they are locked in either but if they are really high on one of them and a few are gone the chances of their OLB of choice sliding is slim to none given who's picking in that range.

 

[BelichickFan]

I wouldn't say they are locked in either but if they are really high on one of them and a few are gone the chances of their OLB of choice sliding is slim to none given who's picking in that range.

No doubt - I just see it as a deep enough group that I'm not really itching for any of them; understanding that it there's one guy we love then we're stuck if he's gone.

 

[TealSox]

I remember another DT/DE with the same reviews, Richard Seymour, and he's done pretty well. I expect that if Jackson is still on the board when the #9 pick rolls around, maybe a trade.

I'm not a Tyson Jackson fan either, but it makes sense for the LSU defensive end to go in the top 5 picks. In fact, I have him going to the Chiefs somewhere in the first round for a couple reason.

First of all, the Chiefs are going to alternate between a 34 and 43 defense. With Tyson Jackson, the Chiefs have a player that can stay on the field in either defense. In the 34, Jackson can play defense end and in the 43, Jackson would move next to Dorsey as a defensive tackle.

Picking Jackson seems so obvious when you consider Pioli's draft history, especially in picking Richard Seymour at 6 and Ty Warren at 12. Remember that Seymour was mocked to go around the 10th pick, if not further. In the 34 defense, he won't be expected to pass rush, but he would be expected to hold the line of scrimmage to allow Johnson, Vrabel and Thomas to get pressure.

I just don't understand the Curry pick for the Chiefs because it isn't like Pioli to take a linebacker that high in the order. Although he can also stay on the field in either a 34 or 43 defense, I don't see him projecting into the line up when they stick with the 34 in the next couple years. Curry also sent up a flag when he mentioned he would take much less to go to Detroit. I think he may be concerned on how far he would drop if the Chiefs and Seahawks go different directions.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not a Tyson Jackson fan either, but it makes sense for the LSU defensive end to go in the top 5 picks. In fact, I have him going to the Chiefs somewhere in the first round for a couple reason.

First of all, the Chiefs are going to alternate between a 34 and 43 defense. With Tyson Jackson, the Chiefs have a player that can stay on the field in either defense. In the 34, Jackson can play defense end and in the 43, Jackson would move next to Dorsey as a defensive tackle.

Picking Jackson seems so obvious when you consider Pioli's draft history, especially in picking Richard Seymour at 6 and Ty Warren at 12. Remember that Seymour was mocked to go around the 10th pick, if not further. In the 34 defense, he won't be expected to pass rush, but he would be expected to hold the line of scrimmage to allow Johnson, Vrabel and Thomas to get pressure.

I just don't understand the Curry pick for the Chiefs because it isn't like Pioli to take a linebacker that high in the order. Although he can also stay on the field in either a 34 or 43 defense, I don't see him projecting into the line up when they stick with the 34 in the next couple years. Curry also sent up a flag when he mentioned he would take much less to go to Detroit. I think he may be concerned on how far he would drop if the Chiefs and Seahawks go different directions.

I totally agree with you. I think Pioli loves Curry but won't use #3 on a LB. Curry projects will as a SILB, but that's too rich for the position. I think 3 is too high for Jackson, but if Pioli has his way he will trade back (and possibly up after trading back) to get Jackson in the 5-11 range.

 

[TealSox]

I totally agree with you. I think Pioli loves Curry but won't use #3 on a LB. Curry projects will as a SILB, but that's too rich for the position. I think 3 is too high for Jackson, but if Pioli has his way he will trade back (and possibly up after trading back) to get Jackson in the 5-11 range.

The perfect situation for Pioli and the gang in KC would be to trade down. The reason being, they could settle for either Tyson Jackson or Aaron Curry later around 8 (Jacksonville) - 12 (Denver). The Packers are a serious wild card as to whether Jackson would get to the 10th spot.

Trading down with the Jets or Redskins would force them to trade back up if they did value Jackson highly. If I were Pioli, I would drop down and be glad not to pay a load of cash for another question mark.

 

[mayoclinic]

The perfect situation for Pioli and the gang in KC would be to trade down. The reason being, they could settle for either Tyson Jackson or Aaron Curry later around 8 (Jacksonville) - 12 (Denver). The Packers are a serious wild card as to whether Jackson would get to the 10th spot.

Trading down with the Jets or Redskins would force them to trade back up if they did value Jackson highly. If I were Pioli, I would drop down and be glad not to pay a load of cash for another question mark.

Agreed. If Dan Snyder really wants Mark Sanchez I can see KC trading #3 for #13 and a 2010 1st round pick. Then they may possibly trade up to 8 or 9 for Curry or Jackson, or possibly even Raji.

 

[VJCPatriot]

As the Packer's GM in the first mock draft, I seriously pondered taking Tyson Jackson at #9 but I wanted to move down to do it. Had no takers to move down and he ended up going #12 in that iteration of the draft. Tyson Jackson could easily go top 10 depending on how much teams like him.

The other thing to note is that if English/Matthews/Brown/Cushing all go before 23, the Pats will have to pull the trigger on Barwin at 23 or risk getting no passrusher by the time pick 34 comes around.

 

[BelichickFan]

The perfect situation for Pioli and the gang in KC would be to trade down.

Of course it would. But they'll have to take "below market value" to trade down. They aren't going to get rid of the contract and get a bushel of picks. I have a friend who's a Rams fan; he wants to trade down but he also wants great value for the pick. Not happening. Trade down from #3 to #8 ? They'll do well to get a #2, I don't care what "the chart" says.