Deflategate Science Simplified

[Tony2046]

But none of that matters because you do not have data to reach a scientific conclusion.
The experiment is just an exercise in guessing at conditions.
I am sure that there could have been temperatures that could have existed that would mean that the decrease in air pressure could not be explained by the IGL.
I also know no one can tell if those conditions were present or not.

Interestingly though, is that Wells never reported how much air he suspected was released from those footballs. Their conclusions imply an approximate discrepancy of 0.3 psi which if that had been illustrated in the report it would have never garnered the reaction it did. That coupled with Mort's fricken tweet and a couple of bogus "well known" scientists who inadvertently forgot to use absolute values when solving for P2, threw this possible equipment violation into a historical career wrecking scandal.

So no, you cannot with certainty conclude what the actual pressures of those footballs would have truly been but you can demonstrate legitimate scientific arguments which explain natural deflation causes and/or discredit Exponents process.

I am sure that there could have been temperatures that could have existed that would mean that the decrease in air pressure could not be explained by the IGL.

True but now we are getting back to the reality of this issue. Mort tweeted 2 psi. Sharps Analysis concluded: Deflated footballs = competitive advantage. This was the ongoing mantra broadcasted across the country at the time BUT even if there were temperatures that could not explain the decrease it would still be a miniscule amount what would be predicted and would still not support the going mantra at the time. Two degrees different in the locker room or on the field would result in a .1 psi difference in the outcome.

You can't conclude what the actual pressures were but you can conclude that nobody was looking for a competitive advantage.

 

[raduray]

First of all, thanks for all that work.

You're right. Conceptually it's not that complicated, but doing the calculations for a specific ball on a specific day under different wetness conditions is tough for most of us to follow.

It would be great if there were one big table that provides every practically conceivable outcome under various scenarios (locker room temp, field temp, altitude, wetness, etc), but that's probably too much to ask.

I built an Excel spreadsheet where you can enter in all these things other than wetness. Altitude is not really a factor since it's constant for both the field conditions and locker room conditions, unless a significant weather front passed through. Still my spreadsheet allows for entering of the ambient air pressure. If you want it, PM me with your email address.

 

[Tony2046]

Anyone else think the NFL ref supervisor saying that balls are sometimes defective was impromptu or is there something more devious the league is trying to accomplish?

Maybe I'm paranoid but IMO there is nothing that comes out of a NFL mouthpiece without it being approved and with a specific motivation.

That is curious isn't it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

simplest possible thing to do is ask"explain this"

Is that a Pepsi bottle? Where is the tube sticking out?

 

[RobertWeathers]

That is curious isn't it.

There is such a thing a subversive propaganda.

The NFL is trying to disprove the Ideal Gas Law in TB12's case.

jerks.

 

[Ring 6]

Interestingly though, is that Wells never reported how much air he suspected was released from those footballs. Their conclusions imply an approximate discrepancy of 0.3 psi which if that had been illustrated in the report it would have never garnered the reaction it did. That coupled with Mort's fricken tweet and a couple of bogus "well known" scientists who inadvertently forgot to use absolute values when solving for P2, threw this possible equipment violation into a historical career wrecking scandal.

So no, you cannot with certainty conclude what the actual pressures of those footballs would have truly been but you can demonstrate legitimate scientific arguments which explain natural deflation causes and/or discredit Exponents process.



True but now we are getting back to the reality of this issue. Mort tweeted 2 psi. Sharps Analysis concluded: Deflated footballs = competitive advantage. This was the ongoing mantra broadcasted across the country at the time BUT even if there were temperatures that could not explain the decrease it would still be a miniscule amount what would be predicted and would still not support the going mantra at the time. Two degrees different in the locker room or on the field would result in a .1 psi difference in the outcome.

You can't conclude what the actual pressures were but you can conclude that nobody was looking for a competitive advantage.

My point is however, that you cannot find guilt when you have to assume facts just to determine whether anything even happened.

This is so totally a case of guilty until proven innocent that its disgusting, and even further because the NFL failed to collect the data, it was literally impossible to prove guilt or innocence.

Lets say there was only one gauge and all the balls were within the IGL prediction. Exponent would have simply changed the pregame lockerroom temp to 68. Then the 11.49 reading would be too low.

 

[Tony2046]

There is such a thing a subversive propaganda.

The NFL is trying to disprove the Ideal Gas Law in TB12's case.

jerks.

Or are they throwing out an excuse in case they lose this case?

 

[Tony2046]

My point is however, that you cannot find guilt when you have to assume facts just to determine whether anything even happened.

This is so totally a case of guilty until proven innocent that its disgusting, and even further because the NFL failed to collect the data, it was literally impossible to prove guilt or innocence.

Lets say there was only one gauge and all the balls were within the IGL prediction. Exponent would have simply changed the pregame lockerroom temp to 68. Then the 11.49 reading would be too low.

I completely agree.

I was just adding that the guilt applied to Brady was based on a PR campaign of erroneous tweets and an inconspicuous Well's report.

If the statement of 'We feel that McNalley released 0.3 psi from the footballs" was included in the Well's report this would not have exploded like it did.

This was an intentional scandal.