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I don't recall this ever getting posted on here, though maybe it did.
The Associated Press typically votes for the regular season awards. Not only that, but the AP first team all-pro quarterback has been the MVP in nine of the last ten seasons. The Associated Press has long been criticized in multiple sports for having writers who don't understand the game beyond a cursory level. You can get a good laugh at the list right here, and the Cliff's Notes contains the following voters: Ron Borges, Pete Prisco, Chris Mortensen, Peter King, Chris Collinsworth, Chris Berman, and Tony Dungy.
In a much less "news splash" worthy story, Brady was voted to the 2016 First Team All-Pro AND 2016 Offensive Player of the Year by The Sporting News. A n0t-so-commonly-understood fact is that this award is a more reflective poll of the player's value. Why? Because The Sporting News is a poll of the NFL coaches, who understand the game on a level so much deeper than sportswriters that it's a laughable comparison. In addition, TSN released a video proclaiming Brady as the MVP. Maybe some of these hack sports writers should heed the advice of actual coaches who need to gameplan against these players. This is the first time since 2001 that The Sporting News diverged from the Associated Press, although the 2001 vote was very close between teammates Warner and Faulk. In 2016, the votes between the two panels were incredibly divided with big wins both ways.
So why should Brady be MVP over Ryan, despite that Ryan played all 16 games, posted a passer rating five points higher, and led the 7th highest scoring offense in NFL history? That's a little beyond the scope of this post as we have already seen all the arguments. Briefly, here are the major reasons why. A. Brady (11-1) won as many games as Ryan (11-5) despite playing in four less games; (B) piggybacking on the first point, Ryan should not even be a real MVP candidate, as his elite stats don't carry over to his win/loss record because he let many games slip away with game sealing interceptions, (C) Brady had a historic season with 28 TDs against just 2 INTs, whereas Ryan's season was very good but not that impressive in the context of modern quarterbacking, (D) Ryan played most of his games in an air conditioned dome and clearly had better offensive support, and (E) losing Rob Gronkowski would be like Ryan losing Julio Jones; it makes Brady's season even more improbable.
You can argue that Ryan's supporting cast wasn't as good as Brady's, but in the context of history, there have been many QBs who have worked with less than Ryan and won more games in route to an MVP. In the last fourteen years, Ryan is the only quarterback to win less than 12 games and win the award. Brady also won less than 12 games, but he went 11-1, with a winning percentage that puts him firmly above the precedent.
The Sporting News Polling Results
According to TSN website, Brady won the award with 71% of the votes. Among 32 head coaches, that gives Brady 23 out of 32 votes. The actual vote count is not published, though I think it's fair to assume Ryan would get roughly 7 votes of the final 9, considering that is about the split between him and Rodgers across multiple polls. As The Sporting News has 32 panel members versus the AP's 50, we can also weight these votes, and a TSN vote is worth 1.5625, which evens up the count of 50. I am not actually putting more weight on these results due to the fact that coaches votes should be more valuable, which would favor Brady; rather this is just from a pure statistical smoothing standpoint.
(Weighted)
Tom Brady - 36 (23 * 1.5625)
Matt Ryan - 11 (7 * 1.5625)
Associated Press + The Sporting News Combined Polling Results
We do have the exact results of the Associated Press voting, which we can combine with TSN.
Tom Brady - 51 (15 Writers + 36 Weighted Coaches)
Matt Ryan - 40 (29 Writers + 11 Weighted Coaches)
Even without weighting the polls (which they absolutely should be), and if you give Ryan all 9 votes from TSN, both players come out to 38 total votes, with Brady dominating in the more important voting.
ProFootballFocus
You can skip this section if you think PFF is hogwash. Personally, I have noticed their statistics aligning more and more with observation over the last few years, although it has taken awhile to get there. Regardless, PFF is cited on many NFL websites, such as NFL.com, profootball-reference, and Wikipedia, as a legitimate postseason award authority. PFF gave the following awards to Brady, who had the highest QB score in the history of its analytics during a single season: Best Player, Best Passer, Offensive Player of the Year.
Final Tally
Looking at the actual consensus, you can make an argument that Brady should be recognized as the 2016 NFL MVP. Yes, the AP Vote is certainly the most widely accepted, traditional, and cited award, but it is also the weakest in terms of actual analysis and is criticized by insiders for buying into and creating media hype, granting voting privileges to unqualified writers, and always favoring statistically superior players without considering difficulty level. Typically there is no reason to make an argument for a player who didn't win the AP award, but that is because in almost every other season, there has been a consensus among the panels for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and First-Team All-Pro Quarterback. 2016 appears to have the most divided voting results ever across multiple polls.
To summarize, here is why Brady is the real 2016 MVP: he won, or was the implied winner, of the trifecta of key awards (All-Pro First Team Quarterback, Offensive Player of the Year, MVP) by both the most important panel, the NFL Head Coaches, with a commanding 71% of the vote, and PFF, wheras Ryan only won those awards with the Associated Press, a less accurate panel.
The Associated Press typically votes for the regular season awards. Not only that, but the AP first team all-pro quarterback has been the MVP in nine of the last ten seasons. The Associated Press has long been criticized in multiple sports for having writers who don't understand the game beyond a cursory level. You can get a good laugh at the list right here, and the Cliff's Notes contains the following voters: Ron Borges, Pete Prisco, Chris Mortensen, Peter King, Chris Collinsworth, Chris Berman, and Tony Dungy.
In a much less "news splash" worthy story, Brady was voted to the 2016 First Team All-Pro AND 2016 Offensive Player of the Year by The Sporting News. A n0t-so-commonly-understood fact is that this award is a more reflective poll of the player's value. Why? Because The Sporting News is a poll of the NFL coaches, who understand the game on a level so much deeper than sportswriters that it's a laughable comparison. In addition, TSN released a video proclaiming Brady as the MVP. Maybe some of these hack sports writers should heed the advice of actual coaches who need to gameplan against these players. This is the first time since 2001 that The Sporting News diverged from the Associated Press, although the 2001 vote was very close between teammates Warner and Faulk. In 2016, the votes between the two panels were incredibly divided with big wins both ways.
So why should Brady be MVP over Ryan, despite that Ryan played all 16 games, posted a passer rating five points higher, and led the 7th highest scoring offense in NFL history? That's a little beyond the scope of this post as we have already seen all the arguments. Briefly, here are the major reasons why. A. Brady (11-1) won as many games as Ryan (11-5) despite playing in four less games; (B) piggybacking on the first point, Ryan should not even be a real MVP candidate, as his elite stats don't carry over to his win/loss record because he let many games slip away with game sealing interceptions, (C) Brady had a historic season with 28 TDs against just 2 INTs, whereas Ryan's season was very good but not that impressive in the context of modern quarterbacking, (D) Ryan played most of his games in an air conditioned dome and clearly had better offensive support, and (E) losing Rob Gronkowski would be like Ryan losing Julio Jones; it makes Brady's season even more improbable.
You can argue that Ryan's supporting cast wasn't as good as Brady's, but in the context of history, there have been many QBs who have worked with less than Ryan and won more games in route to an MVP. In the last fourteen years, Ryan is the only quarterback to win less than 12 games and win the award. Brady also won less than 12 games, but he went 11-1, with a winning percentage that puts him firmly above the precedent.
The Sporting News Polling Results
According to TSN website, Brady won the award with 71% of the votes. Among 32 head coaches, that gives Brady 23 out of 32 votes. The actual vote count is not published, though I think it's fair to assume Ryan would get roughly 7 votes of the final 9, considering that is about the split between him and Rodgers across multiple polls. As The Sporting News has 32 panel members versus the AP's 50, we can also weight these votes, and a TSN vote is worth 1.5625, which evens up the count of 50. I am not actually putting more weight on these results due to the fact that coaches votes should be more valuable, which would favor Brady; rather this is just from a pure statistical smoothing standpoint.
(Weighted)
Tom Brady - 36 (23 * 1.5625)
Matt Ryan - 11 (7 * 1.5625)
Associated Press + The Sporting News Combined Polling Results
We do have the exact results of the Associated Press voting, which we can combine with TSN.
Tom Brady - 51 (15 Writers + 36 Weighted Coaches)
Matt Ryan - 40 (29 Writers + 11 Weighted Coaches)
Even without weighting the polls (which they absolutely should be), and if you give Ryan all 9 votes from TSN, both players come out to 38 total votes, with Brady dominating in the more important voting.
ProFootballFocus
You can skip this section if you think PFF is hogwash. Personally, I have noticed their statistics aligning more and more with observation over the last few years, although it has taken awhile to get there. Regardless, PFF is cited on many NFL websites, such as NFL.com, profootball-reference, and Wikipedia, as a legitimate postseason award authority. PFF gave the following awards to Brady, who had the highest QB score in the history of its analytics during a single season: Best Player, Best Passer, Offensive Player of the Year.
Final Tally
Looking at the actual consensus, you can make an argument that Brady should be recognized as the 2016 NFL MVP. Yes, the AP Vote is certainly the most widely accepted, traditional, and cited award, but it is also the weakest in terms of actual analysis and is criticized by insiders for buying into and creating media hype, granting voting privileges to unqualified writers, and always favoring statistically superior players without considering difficulty level. Typically there is no reason to make an argument for a player who didn't win the AP award, but that is because in almost every other season, there has been a consensus among the panels for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and First-Team All-Pro Quarterback. 2016 appears to have the most divided voting results ever across multiple polls.
To summarize, here is why Brady is the real 2016 MVP: he won, or was the implied winner, of the trifecta of key awards (All-Pro First Team Quarterback, Offensive Player of the Year, MVP) by both the most important panel, the NFL Head Coaches, with a commanding 71% of the vote, and PFF, wheras Ryan only won those awards with the Associated Press, a less accurate panel.
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