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patchick said:There's a weak but consistently positive correlation between offensive payroll and stats like YPP, PPG and winning percentage
This is interesting and puzzling (defense wins championships, yadda, yadda). A suggestion. Successful teams tend to have a good (expensive) quarterback. Is that enough to explain the difference?
Then it occurred to me that payroll stats may be misleading in a curious way...there are two different kinds of "spending" that NFL teams do, and they're probably negatively correlated. When you spend draft picks on a position, you typically reduce payroll at that position. When you don't draft to fill a position, you have to spend $$ on veteran FAs. So for instance, the unusually low payroll for the Pats OL isn't really a sign of neglect of the position, but a reflection of how much of their draft capital they've spent at the position in recent years.
Bingo! That's the point (immodestly, I might say that I think I was saying the same thing earlier).
Now add to this. The Pats do not draft by need. BB has made this clear (although, of course, he's not going to use a first-rounder on a quarterback while he has Tommy). So it follows that how many players on their rookie contract end up at each position is a matter of chance. It wasn't a matter of plan that we took Vince Wilfork, for instance -- BB thought he was a great player and (excuse the metaphor) he filled a hole. But we might just as well be paying for a Sam Adams/Mount Washington-type veteran.
For a total measure of resources that a team allots to each position, you'd need a composite of this dollar spreadsheet with a draft by round/position analysis. Anybody have a few spare hours?
So, in the light of the above, I don't think that this would be a good use of a superior football intellect -- at least in the case of the Patriots, I just don't believe that there is a systematic policy.
I can't believe I'm geeking out this badly. Bye week blues for sure.
Nice, thought-provoking post