With the official return of Troy Brown to the roster, I've been wondering if he can possibly beat out Welker for any roles. There seems to be a general assumption that Welker will take all of Troy's former roles, except DB, and therefore Troy becomes a good backup to Welker and a great compliment (e.g., for 4-WR sets).
However, is Welker really better than Troy at the following roles in 2007? Basically these are roles where savviness, experience, and reliability trump speed and break-away potential.
- 4th and short: similar to 3rd and short, but over the the years the Patriots have so often gone to Troy on 4th down--can Welker really be more reliable than Troy? Last year, Troy was a target on just 1 4th down play. Welker, was 4 of 6 on 4th downs for Miami.
- Inside the 10: Welker doesn't have many career TDs, Troy has a knack for getting open in the endzone. If you look back over Troy's career, he didn't have his 1st receiving TD until his 5th year as a Pro. Welker wasn't used much inside the red zone. He was only in on 15 plays by Miami. Of course, Brown wasn't used much either with only 21 plays.
- Short-field punt returns: Welker has great hands, but are his decision-making/hands better than Troy's? I think they are just as good as Troy's. He had 29 fair catches last year, mainly because of the lousy return blocking by Miami. He didn't try and force things that just weren't there.
- Others?
Note that I don't believe that Welker would be a disappointment even if Troy ends up beating him out for a lot of playing time in 2007--it'd be fine to have him backup Troy for a year and learn. Don't think that'll happen though.
On the flip side, if Troy can't beat out Welker for any of these roles, it's going to be hard to get him on the game day roster if the DBs and WRs are healthy.