5 non-deflategate thoughts on the upcoming season

[BobDigital]

#1 - The 4 key unknowns - There are players that you know can and almost certainly will produce and then there are players that you hope will. This year more than last we need more of these players as we have less vets in key spots. IMO they are Easley, Brown (Pressure up the middle), Jackson (LG) and Butler (CB). We need our front 7 to carry the load this year. That means Easley and Brown need to step up and win their match ups. We need at least one OL to step up and fill the void Connolly left. I think Jackson is the most likely to do this instantly. Some will say we need to upgrade Wendell but I think that is a plus not needed. Butler is IMO the only CB we have that has a chance to cover the top guy and not lose horribly. We need him to be able to do that.

#2 TEs over WRs - BB was looking to maybe add a WR in the off season or in the draft but it did not happen. The spot he did address though is TE with 2 FAs who have starting experience (Chandler being more promising) and drafter a high upside high risk Derby. I don't know if this was the plan from the start but I think it is clear BB is more than willing to invest money and roster spots here. TEs vs WRs actaully save you money and allow for more flexibility from a package standpoint which i am sure BB likes. I could see the Pats going short on WR to carry an extra TE.

#3 Power run is coming back - It seems we are seeing a transition in the offense starting. The Personal (TEs and bigger, stronger OL men) indicate that now and in the future the plan is to transition to a run game that can take pressure off Brady. Yes Brady can carry a team like no other QB with his ability to pass 50 times and dictate the game but they would rather him not do that for much longer. They want to be able to run effectively vs anyone. After this when Mason and Jackson are fully integrated they will have one of the strongest OLs in the NFL with big strong TEs. That was entirely on purpose IMO.

#4 Garoppolo's make or break year - I am not a believe in the sit a QB theory and even less in the developing for multiple years theory. I believe either you have it or you don't and if you sit for a year and learn and then are asked to start and suck it means you don't have it. Garoppolo will "more probable than not" start a few games this year. He needs to show something in those games. He needs to show he has the potential to be a good QB. He needs to put good drives together back to back to back. Rookie mistakes will happen no doubt but he needs to show the ability to do it. If not this year in these games i doubt he has it and the Pats should move on to a new guy cause Brady will not be here forever. If he does show it you don't trade him. Some fans are saying that but i am generally against it (save getting 3 first rounders or something). It is so hard to find promising QBs if you think you have one you hang on to him.

#5 Great Offense beats Great Defense? - For years the montra has been "defense wins championships" in the NFL. This has been true and mostly remained true last year. However last year you had was was arguable the best secondary talent every seen in a SB and it was not a battle of 14-17. It was 28-24 with a few good defensive plays thrown in here and there. They let them play in the playoffs like they usually do but that year it didn't seem to matter. The Patriots lite teams up and were lit up as were other teams. It seems to me there was either good offenses that moved the ball or bad/hurt offenses that were beat up on. It could have been just 1 year but I think maybe we have reached the point that the rules are so stacked to favor the O maybe defense is not as valued as it use to be and that saying might flip to great offense beats great defense (but it needs to be a physical offense). Some of BB's moves this year tell me he might think this too. We will see if that is true this year as well.

 

[micronin127]

I have liked everything about the team building process except the great cornerback exodus. I think that adding Malcom Brown and drafting two Guards (Jackson and Mason) as well as a bunch of DE's/OLB's (Sheard, Grissom, Flowers) and signing McCourty long-term were all to the good.

I feel great with our returning offense. Not sure about RB situation, but that is not a big concern for me, just something I'm not sure about, mainly replacing Vereen.

Defense, I feel we added to the front seven. And also have a good back end with the safeties... I am really worried about being able to cover other team's WR's. I recall a team that went to the Super Bowl with Sterling Moore and Julian Edelman at CB. But... that doesn't mean I am comfortable with who we have at that position. Right now. They could always swing a trade or bring someone in like Tarell Brown, or maybe they know what they have with the practice squad guys like Justin Green and Dax Swanson.

Then there is the Brady 4 game suspension. Which might get reduced, but worst case, it's 4 games with Jimmy G. against some solid competition at least 3 out of the 4 (Pittsburgh/@Buffalo/@Dallas) with the home game against Jacksonville the only relative gimmie. And there are no gimmies for rookie QBs. So, am really hoping we aren't deep in a hole by the time we get Brady back. It could all go great. The suspension could be reduced. Jimmy G. could look great and the team could all rally together for another "Us against the world."

 

[Ross12]

Count me in on the power offense idea. With the seemingly very good depth at TE and a decent stable of RBs, it could be great. Mind you the RBs don't look great right now from a pass catching perspective, but for just lining up and going, Blount and Gray and maybe Gaffney are definitely good enough in a power back role. Plus, defenses have been trending further and further toward spending and drafting in the secondary and the focus up front has seemingly lessened; this would be the time when Belichick says "F*** it" and transitions immediately to a power run scheme with a ton of TEs and takes advantage of that. And once you're up 3 TDs, your secondary won't look too bad since your newly improved pass rushers will be smacking the QB with regularity since they will be passing almost every play.

 

[PedroMac]

Count me in on the power offense idea. With the seemingly very good depth at TE and a decent stable of RBs, it could be great. Mind you the RBs don't look great right now from a pass catching perspective, but for just lining up and going, Blount and Gray and maybe Gaffney are definitely good enough in a power back role. Plus, defenses have been trending further and further toward spending and drafting in the secondary and the focus up front has seemingly lessened; this would be the time when Belichick says "F*** it" and transitions immediately to a power run scheme with a ton of TEs and takes advantage of that. And once you're up 3 TDs, your secondary won't look too bad since your newly improved pass rushers will be smacking the QB with regularity since they will be passing almost every play.

I agree with potential for a lethal ground and pound but I also believe that out of Bolden, White & Cadet we should find one or a combination to replace Vareen's productivity.

Throw in our lethal play action and it's lights out again!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

#4 Garoppolo's make or break year - I am not a believe in the sit a QB theory and even less in the developing for multiple years theory. I believe either you have it or you don't and if you sit for a year and learn and then are asked to start and suck it means you don't have it. Garoppolo will "more probable than not" start a few games this year. He needs to show something in those games. He needs to show he has the potential to be a good QB. He needs to put good drives together back to back to back. Rookie mistakes will happen no doubt but he needs to show the ability to do it. If not this year in these games i doubt he has it and the Pats should move on to a new guy cause Brady will not be here forever. If he does show it you don't trade him. Some fans are saying that but i am generally against it (save getting 3 first rounders or something). It is so hard to find promising QBs if you think you have one you hang on to him.

FWIW, I take a different view.

I think that between Brady and Belichick, they completely screwed up whatever chance they had to develop Mallett properly (there is something F'ed up, IMO, if you can't even bring your backup QB for garbage time of a blowout). OTOH, I think Garoppolo got just about the right amount of PT for a Super Bowl-caliber team.

In the grand scheme of things, I don't think he needs to prove he is the one; I think he needs to show that he's continuing the growth he had last year. If he ends up starting for a game or two, he needs to show that he's not making the same mistakes over and over again. [An interesting point here: I remember seeing an article that implies that Garoppolo may have a Brady-like memory.]

One final thought here: remember that Garoppolo has been playing QB for not much longer than Edelman has been playing WR.

 

[Ross12]

I just wanted to say I just rewatched the Baltimore game and the Super Bowl (NFL Replay), and I gotta tell ya, it makes you really not care as much about this deflation nonsense. Plus, I was reminded of some of the fantastic play some of the team's depth guys produced. Amendola was a firecracker and Butler really killed it in the 4th Q of the SB, plus some nice ball hawking by Harmon and even Chung made some nice individual plays. Meanwhile, for what the team was paying Revis, he really wasn't too impressive in these two games. I'm not feeling quite as concerned about the losses at CB right now.

Oh, and Arrington really sucked in these two games, and not just because of matchups...

 

[1960Pats]

#1 - The 4 key unknowns - There are players that you know can and almost certainly will produce and then there are players that you hope will. This year more than last we need more of these players as we have less vets in key spots. IMO they are Easley, Brown (Pressure up the middle), Jackson (LG) and Butler (CB). We need our front 7 to carry the load this year. That means Easley and Brown need to step up and win their match ups. We need at least one OL to step up and fill the void Connolly left. I think Jackson is the most likely to do this instantly. Some will say we need to upgrade Wendell but I think that is a plus not needed. Butler is IMO the only CB we have that has a chance to cover the top guy and not lose horribly. We need him to be able to do that.

#2 TEs over WRs - BB was looking to maybe add a WR in the off season or in the draft but it did not happen. The spot he did address though is TE with 2 FAs who have starting experience (Chandler being more promising) and drafter a high upside high risk Derby. I don't know if this was the plan from the start but I think it is clear BB is more than willing to invest money and roster spots here. TEs vs WRs actaully save you money and allow for more flexibility from a package standpoint which i am sure BB likes. I could see the Pats going short on WR to carry an extra TE.

#3 Power run is coming back - It seems we are seeing a transition in the offense starting. The Personal (TEs and bigger, stronger OL men) indicate that now and in the future the plan is to transition to a run game that can take pressure off Brady. Yes Brady can carry a team like no other QB with his ability to pass 50 times and dictate the game but they would rather him not do that for much longer. They want to be able to run effectively vs anyone. After this when Mason and Jackson are fully integrated they will have one of the strongest OLs in the NFL with big strong TEs. That was entirely on purpose IMO.

#4 Garoppolo's make or break year - I am not a believe in the sit a QB theory and even less in the developing for multiple years theory. I believe either you have it or you don't and if you sit for a year and learn and then are asked to start and suck it means you don't have it. Garoppolo will "more probable than not" start a few games this year. He needs to show something in those games. He needs to show he has the potential to be a good QB. He needs to put good drives together back to back to back. Rookie mistakes will happen no doubt but he needs to show the ability to do it. If not this year in these games i doubt he has it and the Pats should move on to a new guy cause Brady will not be here forever. If he does show it you don't trade him. Some fans are saying that but i am generally against it (save getting 3 first rounders or something). It is so hard to find promising QBs if you think you have one you hang on to him.

#5 Great Offense beats Great Defense? - For years the montra has been "defense wins championships" in the NFL. This has been true and mostly remained true last year. However last year you had was was arguable the best secondary talent every seen in a SB and it was not a battle of 14-17. It was 28-24 with a few good defensive plays thrown in here and there. They let them play in the playoffs like they usually do but that year it didn't seem to matter. The Patriots lite teams up and were lit up as were other teams. It seems to me there was either good offenses that moved the ball or bad/hurt offenses that were beat up on. It could have been just 1 year but I think maybe we have reached the point that the rules are so stacked to favor the O maybe defense is not as valued as it use to be and that saying might flip to great offense beats great defense (but it needs to be a physical offense). Some of BB's moves this year tell me he might think this too. We will see if that is true this year as well.

Well done.

1 - It's early and I think there will be even more names added to the unknown list.
2 - The timing of the Hernandez loss was horrible, but it looks like the Pats have solved the TE problem. And they did it while winning their 4th SB.
3 - I hope you're right that the power running game is back, but I won't believe that until I see it. Great catch if it's true.
4 - Garropolo is in the same situation as Rodgers was with Favre. In the few times that I've seen him he's looked better than the other backups under Brady. He seems to be very accurate, even on long passes.
5 - Even though some games are higher scoring, it still seems to come down to who makes the defensive plays. The Pats this year, Seattle the year before and the Ravens before that, all won fairly high-scoring SBs because of their defense.