2014 sub defense

[Fencer]

It's increasingly clear that the sub defense is more important than the base, where by "more important" I mean:

• Plays more downs.
• Cause more agitation among fans (like 3rd-and-long conversions).

So what can we say about next year's version?

An early personnel projection would be:

"Starters"

• DE Cha. Jones, Ninkovich
• DT Wilfork, Chr. Jones
• LB Mayo, Collins
• S McCourty, Gregory
• CB Talib, Dennard/Ryan, Arrington

Key subs

• Another rusher (Buchanan or a new guy)
• Another DT (Wilfork won't take all the sub snaps, and that's even without considering any injury recovery issues; he'll get his breathers in sub rather than base.) Could be the other starting base DT. Could also be yet another DE sliding inside.

The guys on that list who obviously could be money casualties are:

• Talib -- but if he's not re-signed, this year's experience suggests another expensive and elite man coverage CB is needed instead
• Wilfork -- but I think he'll be back
• Gregory -- save a bit of money if Harmon seems ready (and if Wilson or a FA seems ready to back Harmon up)

So who on that list was missing for today's poor performance?

• Talib, most of the game.
• Mayo, of course.
• Wilfork.
• A rotational rusher better than Carter.
• A rotational DE.

Who on those lists is young enough that significant development could still be expected? At least:

• Collins
• Ryan
• Chr. Jones
• Dennard
• Cha. Jones
• Harmon
• McCourty (because of the position change)

Who on those lists is old enough that deterioration is regrettably likely:

• Wilfork (in part because of the injury)
• Kelly (if he's the base DT rotating in)

Bottom line: I'm cautiously optimistic, but Talib or a replacement is a distressingly crucial piece.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think Wilfork is a given at all. And don't forget Armond Armstead, who isn't a given but who still could emerge as a significant contributor, especially in the sub defense.

I agree that keeping Talib is a priority, and also think that drafting a big CB who can play press-man to back him up should also be a priority.

I think that a rotational DE should be a priority. Jones played 98.1% of the defensive snaps this season and Ninkovich 95.6%, and I think it showed by the playoffs in terms of their explosiveness and effectiveness.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

Bottom line: I'm cautiously optimistic, but Talib or a replacement is a distressingly crucial piece.

As is another pass rusher and an upgrade over Gregory.

After having experienced the dynasty years, I still don't understand why people are still looking for more offensive weapons. Great offenses can be shut down, and football in NE for the most part has been about power, smash-mouth football with the exception of the the Moss/Welker years. The offense likewise has reverted back to this philosophy these past two years, and I want to keep seeing the defense being upgrades.

Sub or base, I want to see this defense play with an attitude, and begin to intimidate opponents again.

 

[Fencer]

I think that a rotational DE should be a priority. Jones played 98.1% of the defensive snaps this season and Ninkovich 95.6%, and I think it showed by the playoffs in terms of their explosiveness and effectiveness.

Good point. That's a depth problem that needs to be addressed.

 

[manxman2601]

More speed please.

 

[Fencer]

I don't think Wilfork is a given at all. And don't forget Armond Armstead, who isn't a given but who still could emerge as a significant contributor, especially in the sub defense.

I'll admit to not having much of an idea has to how Armstead plays. If he turned out to be a good sub defense DT, that would be great.

As for Wilfork -- we'll see how well he comes back, and the size he seems to have ballooned to his disappointing to me. I couldn't detect any triggers for early decision-making on Miguel's site -- of course other than the overall cap -- so no decisions or renegotiations HAVE to happen before August.

 

[Fencer]

More speed please.

Do you have any particular guys in mind to replace with somebody faster? Or do you just want to take the ones we have and sprinkle some Essence of Mercury on them?

 

[manxman2601]

Do you have any particular guys in mind to replace with somebody faster? Or do you just want to take the ones we have and sprinkle some Essence of Mercury on them?

I just thought it happened if you wished for it.

You understand it's not necessarily a dichotomous thing. You are allowed more than 11 defensive players.

 

[DocHoliday]

Although this team uses elements of both the 4-3 and 3-4, I am interested to see how the team uses both next year.

My guess:

Nink - Siliga - Wilfork - Chandler Jones

.......Hightower - Mayo - Collins

.......Wilfork - Siliga - Jones

Nink - Hightower - Mayo - Collins

Either of these make me very happy. So let's look at the sub D:

Wilfork - Siliga - Jones

Hightower - Mayo - Collins

or

Nink/Buchanan - Wilfork - Siliga - Jones

........Collins - Mayo/Hightower

 

[mgteich]

1) We will need a top veteran corner. I doubt very much that it will be Talib. A part-timer is not what we need.

2) We will need a veteran nose tackle. We have $12M of avoidable cap room that are currently scheduled to be spent on Wilfork, Kelly and Sopoaga. I'm fine with an extension for Wilfork. We will certainly keep Kelly if he is healthy. The price is very reasonable.

AT THIS POINT (AFTER CRUCIAL CHOICES AT CB AND NT)
We will start will a much, much better defense with the injured coming back, and with the development of youngsters.
========================
3) I agree that the next priority is a DE for the rotation (an upgrade to Carter).
4) We also need a #4 LB.
========================

It's increasingly clear that the sub defense is more important than the base, where by "more important" I mean:

• Plays more downs.
• Cause more agitation among fans (like 3rd-and-long conversions).

So what can we say about next year's version?

An early personnel projection would be:

"Starters"

• DE Cha. Jones, Ninkovich
• DT Wilfork, Chr. Jones
• LB Mayo, Collins
• S McCourty, Gregory
• CB Talib, Dennard/Ryan, Arrington

Key subs

• Another rusher (Buchanan or a new guy)
• Another DT (Wilfork won't take all the sub snaps, and that's even without considering any injury recovery issues; he'll get his breathers in sub rather than base.) Could be the other starting base DT. Could also be yet another DE sliding inside.

The guys on that list who obviously could be money casualties are:

• Talib -- but if he's not re-signed, this year's experience suggests another expensive and elite man coverage CB is needed instead
• Wilfork -- but I think he'll be back
• Gregory -- save a bit of money if Harmon seems ready (and if Wilson or a FA seems ready to back Harmon up)

So who on that list was missing for today's poor performance?

• Talib, most of the game.
• Mayo, of course.
• Wilfork.
• A rotational rusher better than Carter.
• A rotational DE.

Who on those lists is young enough that significant development could still be expected? At least:

• Collins
• Ryan
• Chr. Jones
• Dennard
• Cha. Jones
• Harmon
• McCourty (because of the position change)

Who on those lists is old enough that deterioration is regrettably likely:

• Wilfork (in part because of the injury)
• Kelly (if he's the base DT rotating in)

Bottom line: I'm cautiously optimistic, but Talib or a replacement is a distressingly crucial piece.

 

[supafly]

1) We will need a top veteran corner. I doubt very much that it will be Talib. A part-timer is not what we need.

2) We will need a veteran nose tackle. We have $12M of avoidable cap room that are currently scheduled to be spent on Wilfork, Kelly and Sopoaga. I'm fine with an extension for Wilfork. We will certainly keep Kelly if he is healthy. The price is very reasonable.

AT THIS POINT (AFTER CRUCIAL CHOICES AT CB AND NT)
We will start will a much, much better defense with the injured coming back, and with the development of youngsters.
========================
3) I agree that the next priority is a DE for the rotation (an upgrade to Carter).
4) We also need a #4 LB.
========================

Talib may stay on under the right circumstances. He may certainly walk away just the same. After all, we did offer him a longer term deal (specifics unknown, but multiple reports from the spring through yesterday), but he decided to gamble on a 1 yr deal instead. As I've said before, I wouldn't spend a second thinking about going any higher than Leigh Bodden's '09 deal of 4/22 with 10 million guaranteed. That's a 5.5 million dollar AAV with 10 million guaranteed. In today's CB market, that is hardly anything to sneeze at. That limits our gamble a bit, especially with his injury concerns and historic manner at which he misses 20% or more of every single season.

Not surprising to me, he once again failed to finish out the year in his now 6th attempt.....it seems as though he's been very unfortunate when the chips are down and the team needs him the most. That is back to back major differences in the way our defense could play in consecutive AFCCG appearances now since he's been here, and he still has the chronic hip injury moving forward into the future. We're a better team with him in there, but the world won't stop spinning if he leaves either. Either way, we will address the situation one way or another in FA (with/without him), and/or possibly even an additional draft pick at some point.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I think Dennard and Ryan will be the starting CB's next year I don't see them bringing back Talib. to pay a guy 8 million a year that will not be there in the biggest games and u still end up with Dennard and Ryan starting anyways,

I would not mind if they let Talib walk and cut wilfork to bring in Jared Allen, or one of the top pass rushers, Peyton had 4 guys with over 10 TD's each theres no way you can cover them all without a top pass rush

 

[Fencer]

I just thought it happened if you wished for it.

You understand it's not necessarily a dichotomous thing. You are allowed more than 11 defensive players.

Not if you want to play them all at the same time.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think Dennard and Ryan will be the starting CB's next year I don't see them bringing back Talib. to pay a guy 8 million a year that will not be there in the biggest games and u still end up with Dennard and Ryan starting anyways,



I would not mind if they let Talib walk and cut wilfork to bring in Jared Allen, or one of the top pass rushers, Peyton had 4 guys with over 10 TD's each theres no way you can cover them all without a top pass rush

If Dennard and Ryan are the top corners next year, we will be eaten alive by top-tier receivers. I don't think Talib is the answer, but I also don't think the answer is currently on the roster