Jason Cohen 6/17: How the Wells report made fake statistics look believable

http://jicohen.kinja.com/how-the-wells-report-made-fake-statistics-look-believab-1711898024

Very nice article suggested by @Mack Herron , and short read too!

EDIT: I contact the author, and suggested he include his credentials. He has. The author has a PHD in probability and statistics from Cornell University.

Good read. We're seeing more and more of these independent, non-Boston-based analyses and they're all reaching the same conclusion: when you include the time-based adjustment to the psi measurements the conclusions from the report are completely and totally wrong. And when the science leads you to one conclusion, all the text messages in the world spun the way you want to spin them don't matter. Oh, and this analysis doesn't even consider the non-logo vs. logo gauge argument and the ball measured on the sidelines matching the gauge measurements that Anderson said he used (which was ignored by Wells and Exponent).

Biased statistical 'analysis', biased report, biased penalty. Goodell doesn't want to touch this appeal with a ten-foot pole but he also knows if this goes to court he and his staff will look like complete fools. And then, when the psi and deflation are no longer the story, some intrepid reporters will FINALLY (hopefully) start asking questions about the leaked Mort report, and the letter to the Patriots with false information, and the NFL requiring the Patriots to sign an NDA before seeing the actual gauge measurements.

This will turn, if some national writers only keep on the story long enough to bring to light the real story here. Whether that happens or not, who knows.

Just some guy, or does he have credentials?

The NFL and its network"partners" control the media. The public will never know how corrupt the NFL is until either the judicial or legislative branches of government expose it. Not likely since money controls the legislative branch as much as it does the media.

RayClay said:

Just some guy, or does he have credentials?

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I haven't found anything yet...but I'm guessing he's more than just some guy. He sounds like he knows what he's talking about

Chiuba E. Obele said:

I haven't found anything yet...but I'm guessing he's more than just some guy. He sounds like he knows what he's talking about

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My point is, if i knew what i was talking about, I would write a scientific column. we have lots of reports from people with credentials and i value them based on their credentials and background.

Nice for some guy to chime in, but the science from the wells report sounds like they "know what they're talking about" too, which is why the average dodo thinks Brady is guilty of something.

RayClay said:

My point is, if i knew what i was talking about, I would write a scientific column. we have lots of reports from people with credentials and i value them based on their credentials and background.

Nice for some guy to chime in, but the science from the wells report sounds like they "know what they're talking about" too, which is why the average dodo thinks Brady is guilty of something.

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Good point

Kenneth Sims said:

The NFL and its network"partners" control the media. The public will never know how corrupt the NFL is until either the judicial or legislative branches of government expose it. Not likely since money controls the legislative branch as much as it does the media.

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You know, I'm not the tin foil hat type but it certainly seems that ESPN and NFL Network are just ventriloquist dummies for goodell. Bill Simmons was fired by ESPN just for stating the obvious about the performance of the commissioner, a public sports figure it's his job to comment on.

Chiuba E. Obele said:

Good point

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Nothing against posting the report, by the way, but sources and background give it credibility. It's like the exponent science commissioned by Wells. Their list of clients seems impressive until you see they produced reports for tobacco, polluters ets. saying smoke doesn't cause cancer, nor does asbestos or groundwater chemicals.

I remember when the difference between the colts balls and Pats balls was explained by time and warming up here and was laughed at by the local media, now that's another point that will be accepted as fact after the damage as been done.

RayClay said:

My point is, if i knew what i was talking about, I would write a scientific column. we have lots of reports from people with credentials and i value them based on their credentials and background.

Nice for some guy to chime in, but the science from the wells report sounds like they "know what they're talking about" too, which is why the average dodo thinks Brady is guilty of something.

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It's crazy how many average "dodo's" there are running around in Jet's and Colt's garb.

RayClay said:

My point is, if i knew what i was talking about, I would write a scientific column. we have lots of reports from people with credentials and i value them based on their credentials and background.

Nice for some guy to chime in, but the science from the wells report sounds like they "know what they're talking about" too, which is why the average dodo thinks Brady is guilty of something.

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Yeah, that's a good point. I think the author (Jason Cohen) does a good job with his breakdown of the Exponent data and what was used in the main Wells conclusion to debunk their 'science', but after doing some (admittedly minimal) digging this Jason Cohen looks like a JAG. This is his first Kinja post, and googling the name and kinja profile didn't turn up anything. He didn't refer to any credentials--he could be a lawyer, a scientist, a journalist, who knows.

It's another data point out there supporting the very strong counter-argument from the Patriots, and another non-Boston based (presumably, since at a minimum it's on a non-Boston media website) analysis that is critical of the Wells report, but I think that's as far as it goes.

fair catch fryar said:

It's crazy how many average "dodo's" there are running around in Jet's and Colt's garb.

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Unfortunately, many people are impressed by crooks like wells because they have authority. Of course, when the owners give Goodbar unlimited authority, you can't blame casual fans for thinking he must know what he's doing.

hambone1818 said:

Yeah, that's a good point. I think the author (Jason Cohen) does a good job with his breakdown of the Exponent data and what was used in the main Wells conclusion to debunk their 'science', but after doing some (admittedly minimal) digging this Jason Cohen looks like a JAG. This is his first Kinja post, and googling the name and kinja profile didn't turn up anything. He didn't refer to any credentials--he could be a lawyer, a scientist, a journalist, who knows.

It's another data point out there supporting the very strong counter-argument from the Patriots, and another non-Boston based (presumably, since at a minimum it's on a non-Boston media website) analysis that is critical of the Wells report, but I think that's as far as it goes.

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It seemed like a good analysis, but I'm not qualified to analyze science. good to post for the scientific types that can weigh it against other work, I suppose.

On matters like this, I have to analyze credentials, such as a phd in the field, economic statistics expert like the AEI guys and what else they've done. If the guy's a stats student or something, post it, cause i ain't no scientist.

Jason Cohen is a pretty common name. There are engineers, computer guys, other scientists, and business executives with that name on LinkedIn, but many in other fields as well

I wonder if the Wells firm is reading the article after article and wondering if he really did a hack job on it.

MORE PROBABLY THAN NOT HE IS JUST COUNTING HIS MONEY.


NFL*

RayClay said:

Nothing against posting the report, by the way, but sources and background give it credibility. It's like the exponent science commissioned by Wells. Their list of clients seems impressive until you see they produced reports for tobacco, polluters ets. saying smoke doesn't cause cancer, nor does asbestos or groundwater chemicals.

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Jason Cohen‏@jasonicohen
@BenVolin I wrote an article on the statistics in Wells report you might like. I have PhD in Probability & Statistics

RayClay said:

You know, I'm not the tin foil hat type but it certainly seems that ESPN and NFL Network are just ventriloquist dummies for goodell. Bill Simmons was fired by ESPN just for stating the obvious about the performance of the commissioner, a public sports figure it's his job to comment on.

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No conspiracy assumption needed here. The connection of media outlets and who signs/fulfills their paychecks is pretty well established. Plenty of independent research out there to make the connections (the research isn't MSM).

ESPN's high viewership cross section, one of their main if not their primary lifeblood, is fueled by the NFL. Take away the NFL and ESPN's viewer numbers plummet. ESPN literally becomes a shadow of what it was in terms of viewership. Anyone who thinks that kind of leverage over a media outlet doesn't equal hyper-favored status from that media outlet is not giving it sufficient thought.

did Mortensen ever issue a retraction after finding out his report of 12 balls be deflated was wrong. I bet he didn't if not then he has no credibility left.

Bombdog said:

did Mortensen ever issue a retraction after finding out his report of 12 balls be deflated was wrong. I bet he didn't if not then he has no credibility left.

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Better question is which rock has he been hiding under? That must have been some pay off BSPN and the NFL* gave him.