Does this just make too much sense? (Andre Johnson wants out of Houston)

rochrist said:

Dobson showed more in his first year than Price or Tate did in their entire Pats careers.

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Tate only really had one year here since he was redshirted in 2009. I don't think there is a clear cut winner as you seem to suggest. The hype on Tate was quite high as well, especially with an 18.0 ypc average and 5 total TDs.

TATE (2010)---432 yds 3 TDs receiving 18.0 ypc + 2 TDs on kickoff returns = 5 total TDs

DOBSON (2013)---519 yds 4 TDs 14.0 ypc

SeanBruschi54 said:

Has he given you consistent reason that he won't be?

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You mean in addition to ending last season with a bad foot, missing all OTAs, and likely beginning
TC with a bad foot?

I'm not worried about Dobson yet. I think he's struggles last year was more mental than physical. It sucks he can't participate in TC, but he's probably cramming away at the playbook.

captain stone said:

Another reason: the OC wasn't ready for Prime Time.

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I worked with him on that

captain stone said:

You mean in addition to ending last season with a bad foot, missing all OTAs, and likely beginning
TC with a bad foot?

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You mean the team telling him he doesnt need surgery and then do a 180 and tell him that he does need it?

Dobson and Arrington for Andre Johnson and JJ Watt, works for me.

varjao said:

Dobson and Arrington for Andre Johnson and JJ Watt, works for me.

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Why give up those two when we can just trade Mallett for them?

If Dobson is going to be out for quite some time, then that really me hate our draft even that much more. Quite possibly the deepest draft for WRs ever, and we wait for the 7th round. Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce all have injury concerns, as does Amendola. Oh well, I'm sure Austin Collie is on speed dial.

scott99 said:

If Dobson is going to be out for quite some time, then that really me hate our draft even that much more. Quite possibly the deepest draft for WRs ever, and we wait for the 7th round. Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce all have injury concerns, as does Amendola. Oh well, I'm sure Austin Collie is on speed dial.

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In LB/WR draft, take the S
In S draft, take the WR
In WR draft, take the OL

BB's been consistent in this type of approach, of late.

Deus Irae said:

In LB/WR draft, take the S
In S draft, take the WR
In WR draft, take the OL

BB's been consistent in this type of approach, of late.

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I'd also add:

In DE draft, take OL, RB, and QB

supafly said:

I'd also add:

In DE draft, take OL, RB, and QB

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And I'll add..

BB takes whomever is on the board that he feels will best help the Patriots.


https://www.sounddogs.com/previews/2515/mp3/684021_SOUNDDOGS__hu.mp3

https://www.sounddogs.com/sound-effects/2515/mp3/685173_SOUNDDOGS__hu.mp3

Danger Zone said:

And I'll add..

BB takes whomever is on the board that he feels will best help the Patriots.

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Very appropriate and valid response. As fans, it's easy for us fans to try and prioritize what we deem as the "right" selections, but I highly doubt that many of us would do much better in the long run--if at all.

On the other hand, I was just including the 2011 draft as well, since it was supposedly rich in DE talent. For the record, I had a rare case of pegging the selection of high QB, so I actually agreed with that. I also assumed that we'd have taken a DE somewhere in the top 3 rounds as well, much like most. Obviously, Belichick did not agree, and waited until the next year.

supafly said:

Very appropriate and valid response. As fans, it's easy for us fans to try and prioritize what we deem as the "right" selections, but I highly doubt that many of us would do much better in the long run--if at all.

On the other hand, I was just including the 2011 draft as well, since it was supposedly rich in DE talent. For the record, I had a rare case of pegging the selection of high QB, so I actually agreed with that. I also assumed that we'd have taken a DE somewhere in the top 3 rounds as well, much like most. Obviously, Belichick did not agree, and waited until the next year.

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I absolutely believe in the adage out of the mouth of babes oft comes gems.

Not to say that the people criticizing Belichick are babies, but that it could very, very well be true that fans can sometimes see truer needs for a team because we simply have soooo much less information to
confuse and misdirect us. That is, maybe Belichick is guilty of over-thinking.

But that disclaimer aside.. I'm suspicious of the theory that there is anything to notoriously value-minded Belichick purposefully not taking advantage of a particular position or opportunity just because that Draft is considered "deep" at that position... unless maybe he thinks he is getting better value at other positions because of it.

supafly said:

Very appropriate and valid response. As fans, it's easy for us fans to try and prioritize what we deem as the "right" selections, but I highly doubt that many of us would do much better in the long run--if at all.

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Blind men chucking darts at names could have done better than 2006-2009, and BB tried to out-think the room with the Wilson pick, which has had a ripple effect on other positions.

Deus Irae said:

Blind men chucking darts at names could have done better than 2006-2009, and BB tried to out-think the room with the Wilson pick, which has had a ripple effect on other positions.

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It's difficult to argue with the horrible draft classes of the '06 to '09 time period, that's for sure. I'm guessing that we may have been able to have won another title with just a couple/few players who would've contributed. Definitely a dry spell period for sure.

While T.Wilson was certainly a questionable selection at the time which set us back, I'm guessing there was something that really jumped out to Belichick in a positive way. It's a shame that he hasn't yet been able to get it together, particularly after a mediocre enough rookie season that some him take advantage of some opportunistic situations. Unfortunately, it seems as though you can't teach core smarts, and a guy like Wilson may be a fine example of that.

I still have hope that he can pull it together and contribute something higher than his 1.6 snap percentage of last season, but I doubt you'll find many of us who are feeling very optimistic about the chances.

Danger Zone said:

it could very, very well be true that fans can sometimes see truer needs for a team because we simply have soooo much less information to
confuse and misdirect us. That is, maybe Belichick is guilty of over-thinking.

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Interesting point, DZ. You could be onto something.

Either way, I am certainly satisfied with Belichick's overall draft history--although periods like the one that Deus brought up (2006 thru 2009) saw awful results. Perhaps it was the poor scouting, or an inability to adapt to the loss of Pioli (just throwing out ideas)? Maybe it was nothing more than the luck of the draw?

It seems like it's been addressed on some level, so that's definitely reason for optimism in the future. I think we've had some decent draft classes that are at least on par or higher, than the majority of other NFL teams.

supafly said:

It's difficult to argue with the horrible draft classes of the '06 to '09 time period, that's for sure. I'm guessing that we may have been able to have won another title with just a couple/few players who would've contributed. Definitely a dry spell period for sure.

While T.Wilson was certainly a questionable selection at the time which set us back, I'm guessing there was something that really jumped out to Belichick in a positive way. It's a shame that he hasn't yet been able to get it together, particularly after a mediocre enough rookie season that some him take advantage of some opportunistic situations. Unfortunately, it seems as though you can't teach core smarts, and a guy like Wilson may be a fine example of that.

I still have hope that he can pull it together and contribute something higher than his 1.6 snap percentage of last season, but I doubt you'll find many of us who are feeling very optimistic about the chances.

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I hear you. I'm just past the point of buying the whole "Well, they're pros. You couldn't do it" argument that the homers constantly shove down people's throats. BB gave up that hall pass years ago, IMO.

Deus Irae said:

Blind men chucking darts at names could have done better than 2006-2009, and BB tried to out-think the room with the Wilson pick, which has had a ripple effect on other positions.

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2006 - 21st
2007 - 24th
2008 - 31st and forfeited 1st round pick
2009 - 26th

(For an average Drafting Position of 26)


And yet many studies and sports analysts still consider the Patriots to be the best Drafters whether for the past 5 years or the past 10 years. And the ones that don't have the Patriots graded very high.

During these years we used a 2nd round pick on Welker in 2007 (and of course a 4th on Moss)

..and we forfeited a 1st round pick in 2008.

I know the people that make this draft drought argument leap up and exclaim "but we aren't questioning his trade prowess we're just criticizing how badly he drafted in these years"

All right, then why if Belichick doesn't receive credit from his critics for using picks to trade for Welker (2nd) and Moss (4th) why does he get the passive blame for missing out on the opportunity to even draft someone good with that 2nd and 4th round pick?

Belichick during these 4 years was:
- Minus a 1st round pick.
- Minus a 2nd round pick.
- Picking at an average Drafting Position of 26.

Maybe if Belichick had had that 2nd round pick back in 2007 he could have filled the gap between his 1st round pick and the next pick he got to use... in the 4th.

Had Belichick had back that second 1st round pick he should have had in 2008, he could have had the opportunity to match his drafting of Mayo. (Sure glad the dart landed by this guys name).

But to my last point, lets imagine Belichichick *hadnt* make mistakes during these dry years (whether these mistakes were due to bad luck or from hubris as his critics clairvoyantly assume -it doesn't matter).

Lets think about the scenario where Belichick wasn't human and fallible. Let's pretend he didn't have that draft drought between 2006 and 2009.

How far above and beyond all other NFL GMs would his Drafting record now be? What if he had got to use that 1st round pick and that 2nd round pick and what if he got to draft at a comfy average Drafting Position of say 16 instead of 26th? Okay Im sidetracking myself.

What if he did draft Greg Jennings instead of Chad Jackson or Joseph Addai instead of Maroney? How frigging much of a Superman would he be?

Unrealistically so. He would be the God King of Drafting.

I'd love it if Belichick was superhuman, but I'm damn happy with what we have.

The best or one of the best at what he does.. and still human.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

Deus Irae said:

I hear you. I'm just past the point of buying the whole "Well, they're pros. You couldn't do it" argument that the homers constantly shove down people's throats. BB gave up that hall pass years ago, IMO.

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You're the expert on shoving arguments constantly down other people's throats. I'll acquiesce to your ability to detect it in others.

The funny thing being. There wasnt a single homer in this thread that was doing anything of the kind.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...raft-lately/H5mBGyXErkXptvVPFzg9TM/story.html

■ Bill Belichick takes a decent amount of criticism from Patriots fans for whiffing on several high picks (Patrick Chung, Ron Brace, Laurence Maroney, and Tavon Wilson among them) but overall he has done better than most of his contemporaries. The Patriots rank second for starters (16), T-1 in first-rounders (7), T-5 in starters from Rounds 5-7 (3), and T-3 in number of Pro Bowlers (7).

The Patriots still have two starters from every draft dating back to 2008, and struck gold with Tom Brady (sixth round), Vince Wilfork (first), Logan Mankins (first), Stephen Gostkowski (fourth), Jerod Mayo (first), Sebastian Vollmer (second), Julian Edelman (seventh), Devin McCourty (first), and Rob Gronkowski (second), among others.

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http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/decade-the-making-the-ultimate-nfl-draft-grades/2419/

When it was all said and done, there was an easy and not-so-surprising answer: the New England Patriots.

They had the second-most Pro Bowlers, 11, trailing only San Diego (12). They had the most players with a career "Approximate Value" of 50+ as determined by Pro Football Reference's formula that takes into account position, playing time, team success and production (read more about it here). They had the second-most players with career AV of 20 or better. They were tied for third in terms of draftees still active in the league in 2010

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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Whos-been-doing-the-best-job-of-drafting.html

- Patriots ranked 5th best in this study

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap2000000346036

- Of the 32 Best and Worst 1st Round Picks for the past 10 years (from 2014).. the Patriots had 3 of the Best and 0 of the Worst.

http://q.usatoday.com/2014/05/07/nf...-49ers-tennessee-titans-new-england-patriots/

1st - The Patriots have a reputation as being the NFL’s model franchise — Spygate and the Aaron Hernandez case aside — and a lot of that derives from how the team constructs its roster. A perennial position at the top of the standings should make it hard for a team to add a lot of talent through the drafts, but New England has found a way. The Patriots haven’t hit a lot of home runs, but they’ve rarely struck out. Getting TE Rob Gronkowski with the 42nd pick in 2010 and LB Jamie Collins with the 52nd pick in 2013 are just a couple examples of the gems the New England brain trust has uncovered outside of the first round.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...ing-the-5-nfl-teams-that-are-best-at-drafting

New England Patriots - 4th

I wasn't planning to include the Patriotsbecause it feels like head coach Bill Belichick has lost his fastball at drafting in recent years. In reality, he suffered through a very rough stretch from '06-'09 before bouncing back in a major way lately.

To put it another way: Jeff Duncan of The Times-Picayune looked at the last seven draft classes, from 2006-2012. Over that span, no team drafted more combined Pro Bowl and All-Pro players than the Patriots. That's since 2006. (The New Orleans Saintsand Denver Broncos also drafted five Pro Bowl players, but the Patriots had an extra All-Pro.)

New England has swung and missed a lot in the second round -- hello Ron Brace -- but their hits have been huge: Logan Mankins, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer and Aaron Hernandez.Chandler Jones and Stevan Ridley look like quality starters. Belichick also gets some credit for draft picks like Asante Samuel, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Matt Light back in the day.

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Belichick, as human as he is, as fallible as he is, and as poor as 2006-2012 was for him (as long as you consider mitigating circumstances and who he got in Trades and where he Drafts from) - he still looks like a professional to me.

I didn't come across a single Draft study that didn't have good things to say about the Belichick's overall Drafting ability.