Nick Fairly at #17?

PATSNUTme · Mar 23, 2011

NFL - Draft - Yahoo! Sports

If you look at the new PFW player rankings, you will see Nick Fairly at #17. This is the first time that I've seen him drop from the top 10 in any rankings.

Kindly ignore the mock draft that has us taking Cam Jordan at #17 and Jake Locker at #28.

Just for ha-ha's if we took all the players that they have ranked in our slots, would you consider it an bad OVERALL draft?

jays52 · Mar 23, 2011

This is going to sound insane, but given this coach and this scheme, I have Watt ahead of both of the 3-tech's everyone is salivating over.

Off The Grid · Mar 24, 2011

jays52 said:
This is going to sound insane, but given this coach and this scheme, I have Watt ahead of both of the 3-tech's everyone is salivating over.

I agree wholeheartedly, thus confirming the insanity.

Isn't this hilarious?? For those of us derelicts that've been following Fairley's progress from early September on, and watching the alleged experts take MONTHS for his name even to register...and then observed as he rolled up the Mocks from the late 1st Round ~ it seems so long ago!! ~ to his current lofty position...the notion of his SINKING to #17 seems pretty bizarre...for me, anyway!!

*By the way, an ascension to the Top 3, followed by a plunge back DOWN the ranks towards the middle of the 1st is EXACTLY what I predicted for this guy, as some may remember!!

*Does anyone remember ~ as I do not ~ what his Approximate Draft Position was in August??

sbpatfan · Mar 24, 2011

The only reason Fairly was projected at #1 is because ESPN was all over him after the NCAA Championship. It's hilarious how much a media outlook can build up a prospect. Anyone remember Javon Sneed?

supafly · Mar 24, 2011

That would be a tough call, OP. I may be a little worried right off the bat, as to why 16 other teams passed on him, but the chips may fall that way.

I would think awfully long and hard about it though, as he may have some questionable character issues, etc. On the other hand, he is certainly a dominant force--his talent is beyond most.

This is why Belichick makes the big bucks, and I am posting on the forum--decisions just like this one

I would be awfully tempted to scoop him up, personally speaking.

borg · Mar 24, 2011

From watching the combine and comparing Fairly with Dareus, the glaring difference between the two players was their legs. Dareus' legs were thick and stout...Fairly's were much skinnier and thus quicker. If I was a GM, especially of a 3-4 team, I would question his strength to handle two blockers for an entire game. No doubt he has quickness to shoot gaps in the 4-3, but will his legs hold up? Wonder if teams are ever allowed to put a potential draftee through some squat circuits to see what he's got.

WaterfallJumper · Mar 24, 2011

borg said:
From watching the combine and comparing Fairly with Dareus, the glaring difference between the two players was their legs. Dareus' legs were thick and stout...Fairly's were much skinnier and thus quicker. If I was a GM, especially of a 3-4 team, I would question his strength to handle two blockers for an entire game. No doubt he has quickness to shoot gaps in the 4-3, but will his legs hold up? Wonder if teams are ever allowed to put a potential draftee through some squat circuits to see what he's got.

Yes. They test at the Combine. It's not one of the other televised drills, obviously, but the teams all pay attention, at any rate. Every player hops on a Cybex squat machine that's hooked up to sensors, and their explosion, power, and endurance is measured. They basically go until their legs are mush.

Love Fairley. I think he'd bring something to our team we've never truly had before. Think Jarvis Green in his prime, or Mike Wright last year before his injury; Fairley is clearly a step or two above either as a pass rusher. I don't think he's a classic two-gapper, but he does have some good power when he plays with proper leverage. He probably will be better against the run than Wright, after a year of training, with huge pass rushing upside.

Is that enough to justify pick 17? I don't think so, but I also wouldn't mind in the least if BB drafted him. Now, if he somehow makes it to 28, I don't see how we could pass up the chance to add his talents. He's simply too explosive at that point to worry about the risk.

reflexblue · Mar 24, 2011

Off The Grid said:
I agree wholeheartedly, thus confirming the insanity.

Isn't this hilarious?? For those of us derelicts that've been following Fairley's progress from early September on, and watching the alleged experts take MONTHS for his name even to register...and then observed as he rolled up the Mocks from the late 1st Round ~ it seems so long ago!! ~ to his current lofty position...the notion of his SINKING to #17 seems pretty bizarre...for me, anyway!!

*By the way, an ascension to the Top 3, followed by a plunge back DOWN the ranks towards the middle of the 1st is EXACTLY what I predicted for this guy, as some may remember!!

*Does anyone remember ~ as I do not ~ what his Approximate Draft Position was in August??

Yes brother Grid i remember those days when we lusted for Fairly and thought it would be impossible to get him unless Oakland tanked and got the fifth pick. Oh have the mighty fallen.

dryheat44 · Mar 24, 2011

While I'm firmly on record as not wanting to trade up for Fairley, at #17 I think he'd warrant serious, serious consideration. If Belichick were to pass, I'd take that as a tacit admission that he wouldn't know what to do with him. I like to think that Belichick is a creative enough tactician to find a way to utilize that much talent on his defense...maybe it's playing more traditional 4 fronts.

borg · Mar 24, 2011

reamer said:
Yes. They test at the Combine. It's not one of the other televised drills, obviously, but the teams all pay attention, at any rate. Every player hops on a Cybex squat machine that's hooked up to sensors, and their explosion, power, and endurance is measured. They basically go until their legs are mush.

Love Fairley. I think he'd bring something to our team we've never truly had before. Think Jarvis Green in his prime, or Mike Wright last year before his injury; Fairley is clearly a step or two above either as a pass rusher. I don't think he's a classic two-gapper, but he does have some good power when he plays with proper leverage. He probably will be better against the run than Wright, after a year of training, with huge pass rushing upside.

Is that enough to justify pick 17? I don't think so, but I also wouldn't mind in the least if BB drafted him. Now, if he somehow makes it to 28, I don't see how we could pass up the chance to add his talents. He's simply too explosive at that point to worry about the risk.

Thanks Reamer. My new piece of knowledge for the day. Do these results ever get posted?

Nonentity · Mar 24, 2011

reamer said:
Yes. They test at the Combine. It's not one of the other televised drills, obviously, but the teams all pay attention, at any rate. Every player hops on a Cybex squat machine that's hooked up to sensors, and their explosion, power, and endurance is measured. They basically go until their legs are mush.

Matt Bowen had a great quote on this in the early days of the NFP. The original link is dead now but the Wayback Machine has a copy

The National Football Post | Combine Tales: Part III

Cybex Meltdown

Tomorrow, I had to workout for the scouts—the reason we were all here. I was ushered into a waiting area outside a small room (all we do is wait around at this thing). Back to the steel chairs that had found their way to a different part of the hotel. Today, I would be testing my lower body strength on a Cybex machine. Great. A Cybex machine is similar to doing leg extensions at your local gym, except that it provides resistance—both up and down—while you do this thing to complete leg failure. Yes, you rep out each of your legs until you can’t do it anymore. You are strapped in, not unlike Ivan Drago in the training scene of “Rocky IV,” except that there is no super hot blonde watching you, nor is there some big Russian guy shooting you up with steroids before and after each rep.

There is no way to avoid this, no secret exit that would lead you back to campus and a pretty girl with a case of Bud Heavies under her arm. I was stuck. Next in line, watching some guy from Tennessee squeeze his cheeks together and come near exhaustion. My number was called, and I sat down as two guys strapped me into the machine. Maybe this is what astronauts feel like before takeoff was all I thought until I heard some man tell me to “start it up.” One rep, two reps, and so on. Both legs drained of every ounce of energy. In less than 20 hours I would be running a 40-yard dash that would determine if I got drafted or not, and here I was dying inside and gasping for air.

And that is what the Combine is all about. They want you to feel tired and they want you to face adversity, because they are curious to see how you respond. Will the guy crack under the pressure or will he deliver under the most dreadful circumstances? That was the question I would have to answer tomorrow, but in the meantime I wanted to find Peter Warrick to see if his watch cost more than my parent’s house.

NFLroughdraft · Mar 24, 2011

Wow. There is absolutely no way Fairley falls to #17 unless it's revealed he failed a drug test at the combine or something like that. He won't fall out of the top 10.

supafly · Mar 26, 2011

NFLroughdraft said:
Wow. There is absolutely no way Fairley falls to #17 unless it's revealed he failed a drug test at the combine or something like that. He won't fall out of the top 10.

I agree. He also does not project well to a 3-4 system, and does not provide the versatility that Belichick would likely covet. He has some character issues, and also has the possibility to be a 1 yr wonder. I do not think that he would even get too much consideration at 17 if he did somehow happen to fall that far, but the pick is still tempting due to his talent level!!

Box_O_Rocks · Mar 26, 2011

supafly said:
I agree. He also does not project well to a 3-4 system, and does not provide the versatility that Belichick would likely covet. He has some character issues, and also has the possibility to be a 1 yr wonder. I do not think that he would even get too much consideration at 17 if he did somehow happen to fall that far, but the pick is still tempting due to his talent level!!

I think Fairley projects all to well for 3-4 DE; after watching several games last year:
-- I've seen him dealing with double-teams and triple-teams at the point of attack, and not giving ground.
-- I'm not buying the work ethic hype, guys like Phil Taylor and Jerald Powe were carrying that tag all season, whereas Fairley wasn't questioned until the draft rumor season kicked off.
-- Ditto character issues.
-- People question his weight, and with the same breath praise Cam Jordan or other 3-4 tagged prospects in the same weight range. Humans are consistently, inconsistent.
-- There is an insistence that Nick is strictly a 3-tech because that's all he has learned. Vince Wilfork says "baby Sapp."
-- People see his development to date, and his inexperience, and insist on viewing it as a negative. For a change of pace; I see a kid who fought his way into the SEC up the JUCO ladder, spent his first season learning skills he previously did not need, and his second season dominating the SEC while "experts" poo-pooed him as raw and inexperienced. I have little doubt Pepper and BB and Wilfork & Warren & Wright (oh my!) and Scarnecchia-trained dancing bears would combine to help him overcome his technique shortcomings. And, I don't see a guy who lacks for the will power and work ethic to improve his game in any of that background.

I'm as guilty of dwelling on the negative as the next guy, but every now and again I manage to remember the Belichick scouting standard: What does he do well? If Pioli or Belichick were to drop this kid into the waiting arms of RAC or Pepper ... I have no doubts as to the outcome.

FredFromDartmouth · Mar 26, 2011

A rather interesting possibility. A lot is riding on his supposed "character issues". Normally you would not expect him to be on BB's draft board but in the Cleveland days BB was burned by this when he did not draft Warren Sapp. In that case the character issues turned out to be unsubstantiated rumors. I suspect that BB and his staff are investigating this issue pretty seriously. Have the Patriots met with him yet? From what I have read Fairly is not a Patriots type of guy but as part of the lay public we do not get the full story.

Guys like Titus Young are not on BB's draft board (all WRs are suspect to begin with and Young is at the wrong end of the specturm) but Fairly is a different story.

stinkypete · Mar 26, 2011

The only character issue I see with Fairly is that he plays a little bit dirty. He'll negate his share of big plays with some stupid 15 yard penalties. The guy no doubt played like a beast all season against top competition.

I agree the knocks on his weight are kinda ridiculous. He weighs the same as Cam Jordan, and is 3 inches shorter. Doesn't that mean that he should be stronger and bulkier?

I don't see him sliding past Tennessee at #8. Should he get past the Titans, Minnesota and St Louis should be ready to pounce.

supafly · Mar 26, 2011

Box_O_Rocks said:
I think Fairley projects all to well for 3-4 DE; after watching several games last year:
-- I've seen him dealing with double-teams and triple-teams at the point of attack, and not giving ground.
-- I'm not buying the work ethic hype, guys like Phil Taylor and Jerald Powe were carrying that tag all season, whereas Fairley wasn't questioned until the draft rumor season kicked off.
-- Ditto character issues.
-- People question his weight, and with the same breath praise Cam Jordan or other 3-4 tagged prospects in the same weight range. Humans are consistently, inconsistent.
-- There is an insistence that Nick is strictly a 3-tech because that's all he has learned. Vince Wilfork says "baby Sapp."
-- People see his development to date, and his inexperience, and insist on viewing it as a negative. For a change of pace; I see a kid who fought his way into the SEC up the JUCO ladder, spent his first season learning skills he previously did not need, and his second season dominating the SEC while "experts" poo-pooed him as raw and inexperienced. I have little doubt Pepper and BB and Wilfork & Warren & Wright (oh my!) and Scarnecchia-trained dancing bears would combine to help him overcome his technique shortcomings. And, I don't see a guy who lacks for the will power and work ethic to improve his game in any of that background.

I'm as guilty of dwelling on the negative as the next guy, but every now and again I manage to remember the Belichick scouting standard: What does he do well? If Pioli or Belichick were to drop this kid into the waiting arms of RAC or Pepper ... I have no doubts as to the outcome.

I am sure that you are much better equipped than me to project his talent level and fit, but we do not agree in this case. However, I am certainly not alone in thinking that Fairley does not fit a 3-4 scheme. He's a lot closer looking to being 6'3" than he is 6'4, although his official height is the latter. His arms are also not quite as long as a 3-4 DE's would like to be, in my opinion.

A few examples:

"Fairley isn't a good fit in a 2 gap 3 man front. It would be a complete waste of his elite ability to penetrate the line with his incredible quickness off of the snap. I like him in a 4-3 or in a 1 gap 3-4 like Dallas runs, but really I think Fairley wouldn't be all that great in a system like New England's or Cleveland's."
-------

"Fairley is probably the better overall prospect at this point and if you're going into a 4-3, he's likely your guy."
-------

"In a 1 gap scheme like Dallas runs I'll take Fairley all day."
-------

"Fairley reminds me a lot of ex-Packer/Brown and current Lion Corey Williams. He's a really good pass rusher and he holds up good enough against the run, but not well enough to be a 34 End."
-------

With all of that said, I do trust your judgment, and it'll be interesting to see where he ends up, and how he does overall.

supafly · Mar 26, 2011

Box_O_Rocks said:
I think Fairley projects all to well for 3-4 DE; after watching several games last year:
-- I've seen him dealing with double-teams and triple-teams at the point of attack, and not giving ground.
-- I'm not buying the work ethic hype, guys like Phil Taylor and Jerald Powe were carrying that tag all season, whereas Fairley wasn't questioned until the draft rumor season kicked off.
-- Ditto character issues.
-- People question his weight, and with the same breath praise Cam Jordan or other 3-4 tagged prospects in the same weight range. Humans are consistently, inconsistent.
-- There is an insistence that Nick is strictly a 3-tech because that's all he has learned. Vince Wilfork says "baby Sapp."
-- People see his development to date, and his inexperience, and insist on viewing it as a negative. For a change of pace; I see a kid who fought his way into the SEC up the JUCO ladder, spent his first season learning skills he previously did not need, and his second season dominating the SEC while "experts" poo-pooed him as raw and inexperienced. I have little doubt Pepper and BB and Wilfork & Warren & Wright (oh my!) and Scarnecchia-trained dancing bears would combine to help him overcome his technique shortcomings. And, I don't see a guy who lacks for the will power and work ethic to improve his game in any of that background.

I'm as guilty of dwelling on the negative as the next guy, but every now and again I manage to remember the Belichick scouting standard: What does he do well? If Pioli or Belichick were to drop this kid into the waiting arms of RAC or Pepper ... I have no doubts as to the outcome.

As far as questioning his weight, character issues, and work ethic--that is a very good point that those questions may be offbase, and premature.

Personally, I don't know all of the details enough to make an informed guess, but it did appear to me that he may not initially be a BB type of player. They have so much more info and resources to make a better choice.

I do agree that he will likely be a force to be reckoned with, I just do not see him going to a 3-4 team. I do not find it a coincidence that out of all of the 10 top teams, Dallas and Arizona were the only one's not looking at him.

Box_O_Rocks · Mar 26, 2011

supafly said:
As far as questioning his weight, character issues, and work ethic--that is a very good point that those questions may be offbase, and premature.

Personally, I don't know all of the details enough to make an informed guess, but it did appear to me that he may not initially be a BB type of player. They have so much more info and resources to make a better choice.

I do agree that he will likely be a force to be reckoned with, I just do not see him going to a 3-4 team. I do not find it a coincidence that out of all of the 10 top teams, Dallas and Arizona were the only one's not looking at him.

I don't expect him to go to a 3-4 team either, he's going to be valued higher by the 4-3 teams. I just believe an athlete of his demonstrated ability is fully capable of learning to play in NE's 3-4.

supafly · Mar 26, 2011

Box_O_Rocks said:
I don't expect him to go to a 3-4 team either, he's going to be valued higher by the 4-3 teams. I just believe an athlete of his demonstrated ability is fully capable of learning to play in NE's 3-4.

That's certainly a very fair and reasonable point. Obviously, we know the kid's got a ton of talent. I'm curious if he'd be on Belichick's radar or not? As you pointed out, he likely could learn the system just fine, and in all actuality, we're in sub packages just as often as the base 3-4 anyway (likely even more), so he would be able to excel and play to his strengths in many circumstances.

Sometimes I (and the media) forget the incredible gift that having a coach of this magnitude can have on the aspect of teaching these young kids. The fact that he could be taught here is quite valid, I am sure.

Nick Fairly at #17?

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